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The 15% tariff on imported rice will remain unchanged at least until November, according to the Department of Economy, Planning, and Development (DEPDev), as the government seeks a “win-win” solution that balances inflation control with protecting local farmers.

“Not in the immediate [term], but most likely by November,” DEPDev Undersecretary for Policy and Planning Rosemarie G. Edillon told a news briefing on Wednesday. “After four months, we will submit the study to the President.”

The lower tariff was introduced through Executive Order (EO) No. 62, which took effect in July 2024 and slashed the import duty on rice to 15% from 35% until 2028. The EO mandates a review every four months to assess its impact.

The announcement comes amid a petition from farmer groups, including the Samahang Industriya ng Agrikultura, to go back to the original 35% duty to shield local producers from the influx of cheaper rice imports.

The Department of Agriculture, meanwhile, said it would recommend a gradual tariff increase during the next harvest season.

Ms. Edillon said they met to discuss the review and petition, and they agreed that the periodic review is meant to report on what has happened, not to make recommendations at this stage.

The lowered tariff appears to be achieving its inflation-control goals. Rice prices dropped by 14.3% in June, improving from the 12.8% decline in May, according to the local statistics agency. It was the sharpest drop since 1995.

Rice supply also appears to be stable. As of June, the country’s rice inventory reached 2.24 million metric tons (MT), 3.5% more than a year earlier. “Most of them are still in the warehouses. And we had the bumper harvest, actually, for the first half,” Ms. Edillon said.

She added that the rice import volume would be capped at 3.5 million MT for the year.

The government is also exploring more measures to support farmers, including enhanced access to the Rice Competitiveness Enhancement Fund, which provides planting assistance.

The DEPDev is also participating in discussions on whether to restore the regulatory powers of the National Food Authority (NFA), which was stripped of many functions following the Rice Tariffication Law.

Speaker Ferdinand Martin G. Romualdez said the House of Representatives is ready to act on a draft bill that seeks to reinstate the NFA’s market functions once it reaches the chamber.

The Agriculture department has said the draft legislation includes provisions for the NFA to manage buffer stocks, regulate rice marketing and set floor prices for rough rice.

“I think at that time, the context was different. So NFA was so much in debt. It was really bleeding, hemorrhaging,” Ms. Edillon said, referring to the agency’s former monopoly on imports. “It was not really fulfilling its mandate… What we need to consider now is how the market has adjusted to the new regime.”

She also acknowledged the challenges in setting floor prices. “It will be very tricky though, operationalizing it and even estimating it. But yes, that’s something that we’re studying as well.” — Aubrey Rose A. Inosante

The PHP 50 daily minimum wage hike for Metro Manila workers that will take effect on July 18 is unlikely to fuel inflation, according to economists.

Its limited coverage means it probably won’t be inflationary compared with earlier proposals for a nationwide wage hike, said Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion, chief economist at Union Bank of the Philippines, Inc.

“It’s going to take effect this month, so that has to be factored in,” he told Money Talks with Cathy Yang on One News on July 2. “But versus PHP 100 to PHP 200, I think PHP 50 is a huge difference from the huge uptick that was originally proposed by Congress.”

The P50 wage hike is a “well-calibrated move,” said Jonathan L. Ravelas, senior adviser at Reyes Tacandong & Co.

“It boosts worker income without significantly stoking inflation,” he said. “Given current low inflation and soft growth, the impact should be manageable — especially if businesses adjust gradually and productivity improves.”

“It’s a positive step, but we’ll need to watch for second-round effects in labor-intensive sectors,” he added.

The Labor department last week said the PHP 50 daily wage increase — the biggest pay hike ever granted by the National Wages and Productivity Commission — would benefit about 1.2 million workers in the Philippine capital and nearby cities and provinces.

The new daily minimum wage in the National Capital Region (NCR) is expected to increase to PHP 695 in the nonagricultural sector.

The pay of workers in the farm sector, service and retail outlets with 15 or fewer staff members and factories with fewer than 10 workers will go up to PHP 658.

Congress adjourned last month without approving the bill seeking to hike the daily minimum wage by PHP 100-PHP 200. Economic managers had warned that the legislated wage hike could have “dangerous repercussions” for the Philippine economy.

Philippine inflation picked up to 1.4% in June from 1.3% in May amid higher utility costs, the government reported on Friday.

This was slower than 3.7% in June last year and was within the central bank’s 1.1% to 1.9% forecast for the month. This was also below the 1.5% median estimate in a BusinessWorld poll of 17 analysts.

National Statistician Claire Dennis S. Mapa on Friday said the latest wage hike’s impact on inflation could be lagged, adding that this would likely be reflected in personal care, miscellaneous goods, and services.

Michael L. Ricafort, chief economist at Rizal Commercial Banking Corp., said a PHP 50 wage hike that is given to other regions could add a percentage point to inflation.

“Businesses tend to pass the higher minimum wages, or pass-through effects, as much as possible, depending on competition locally and from imports,” he said in a Viber message.

Ateneo Center for Economic Research and Development Director Ser Percival K. Peña-Reyes said the NCR wage hike could “lead to job losses or inflation if the hike is merely artificially imposed and is not commensurate with any actual productivity increase.”

IBON Foundation Executive Director Jose Enrique “Sonny” A. Africa said the hike is “minuscule” and should not have any impact on consumer prices.

“The P50 NCR wage hike is just 0.4% of NCR establishment expenses and barely 2.5% of profits,” he said in a Viber message.

He added that “any firm that raises prices because of the tiny hike is just using that as an excuse for further profiteering.” — Aubrey Rose A. Inosante

The Philippines needs to have about 350,000 more workers available to service pending renewable energy (RE) projects in the pipeline by 2030, according to the International Labor Organization (ILO).

The Philippines has the largest RE development pipeline in the region, with the current RE workforce estimated at only 120,000, ILO Philippines head Khalid Hassan told reporters on the sidelines of a green jobs forum in Makati City.

Mr. Hassan noted that the Philippines has obtained major RE investment commitments, including a deal with the United Arab Emirates government-owned Masdar (Abu Dhabi Future Energy Co.) for 10 gigawatts solar, wind, and storage by 2040.

He also noted Terra Solar is building a 3,500-megawatt RE project, which is expected to be the world’s largest solar plant by 2026.

Southeast Asia in general is projected to gain six million RE jobs by 2050, he said.

Mr. Hassan noted that skills gaps are crippling the growth of RE projects in the Philippines, with companies reporting a 75% shortage of skilled workers.

Training systems are outdated, fragmented, and not responsive to market needs, he added.

“Investments are being delayed or compromised due to a lack of ready, qualified workers,” he said.

He added that safety is also a major concern,  with young workers most at risk, especially in the construction and installation of RE projects involving wind and solar.

The ILO noted that current technical and vocational education and training systems in the Philippines are government-driven, with employers “missing from the design and delivery” of the training.

Trainers often lack exposure to modern technology, Mr. Hassan said.

He also cited the absence of formal apprenticeships and the lack of a system to forecast skills needs.

“This disconnect is slowing returns on investment and affecting project quality,” he said.

The ILO is currently helping the Philippines establish a system that will offer quality apprenticeships in RE.

The program seeks to define industry standards and core competencies, establish certified apprenticeships linked to real jobs, promote occupational safety and health standards, and provide a direct voice to government on policy reform.

The platform is expected to shape policy on skills financing, labor mobility, and tax and regulatory incentives.

It seeks to help the Philippines establish “brand visibility” as a “green jobs leader.”

The platform aims to have 10,000 workers trained, half of them women, by 2029.

By that year, there should also be 2,400 certified apprentices with 80% job placement within six months, and 25 pilot training systems across the solar, wind, hydro, biomass, and geothermal industries.

By 2029, there should be at least 240 supervisors and 180 vocational instructors certified, the ILO said. — Kyle Aristophere T. Atienza

The Philippines’ unemployment rate went down to 3.9% in May from 4.1% in April, with the number of individuals in the labor force hitting an all-time high, the government reported on Tuesday.

The number of jobless Filipinos declined to 2.03 million in May from 2.06 million in April and 2.11 million a year earlier, according to the results of the Philippine Statistics Authority’s (PSA) latest Labor Force Survey released on Tuesday.

Year on year, the jobless rate likewise went down from 4.1% in May 2024.

The country’s unemployment rate averaged at 4% in the first five months of 2025, unchanged from the same period last year.

National Statistician Claire Dennis S. Mapa attributed the drop in the May unemployment rate to a “substantial” growth in the ranks of Filipinos aged 15 years and older in the labor force.

“The increase in our labor force participation is substantial — there was a 1.35 million increase year on year,” he told a news briefing. “Usually, when labor force participation increases, unemployment also goes up. But this time is different — almost everyone was absorbed, and unemployment declined.”

“Our only concern is that underemployment increased (year on year),” he added. “Our underemployment rate last year was only 9.9%, it increased by 1.79 million to 13.1%. Those who entered the labor market, while they were employed, not all of them were full-time employees. So, they also contributed to the underemployment rate.”

PSA data showed that 52.32 million Filipinos were part of the labor force in May, rising from 50.74 million in April and the 50.97 million working Filipinos recorded in May 2024.

This was the highest recorded number since April 2005, which was when the PSA began tracking the data, it said.

The labor force participation rate (LFPR), or the proportion of the working-age population (15 years old and over) that is part of the labor force, rose to 65.8% in May from 63.7% in April and 64.8% in the same month last year.

Meanwhile, the underemployment rate — those who want longer working hours or an additional job — eased to 13.1% in May from 14.6% in April but climbed from 9.9% in the same month last year.

This translated to 6.6 million Filipinos looking for additional jobs or longer working hours, 489,000 lower than the 7.09 million in April. Year on year, this was up from 4.82 million in May 2024.

For the five-month period, the underemployment rate averaged 12.9%, up from 12.3% last year.

Department of Economy, Planning, and Development (DEPDev) Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan said the increase in labor force participation in May indicated a “healthy and competitive” job market.

“Generally, a larger workforce can lead to increased economic output and potentially higher GDP (gross domestic product) growth, as more people contribute to the economy,” Mr. Balisacan said in a statement.

“This also reflects growing confidence in the labor market and the impact of ongoing efforts to expand access to employment opportunities across sectors,” he added.

The Philippines is targeting a GDP growth of 5.5%-6.5% for 2025.

The DEPDev added that the Philippine’s unemployment rate remains lower than those in China (5%) and India (5.6%), but higher than Malaysia (3%) and Vietnam (2.2%).

Finance Secretary Ralph G. Recto said in a statement that higher labor participation shows that more Filipinos are seeing better work opportunities and is a sign of economic development.

Mr. Balisacan said the government’s planned infrastructure projects can help attract job-generating investments.

He added that efforts to equip Filipinos with in-demand skills and competencies can help our workforce remain agile amid a competitive labor market

“We will leverage recently enacted policy reforms to improve upskilling and reskilling initiatives.”

Employment rate

The PSA also reported that the employment rate inched up to 96.1% in May from 95.9% in both April 2025 and May 2024.

The number of Filipinos with jobs grew to 50.29 million in May from 48.67 million the previous month and 48.87 million in the same month last year.

By sector, services remained the top employer for the month, accounting for 61.8% of total employed persons, followed by agriculture (21.1%) and the industry sector (17.1%).

Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles saw the largest annual increase in jobs during the month, adding 489,000 jobs. This was followed by agriculture and forestry (469,000), administrative and support service activities (371,000), accommodation and food service activities (365,000), and other service activities (175,000).

On the other hand, manufacturing posted the biggest annual decline in employment (374,000). This was followed by construction (298,000); mining and quarrying (82,000); public administration and defense and compulsory so-cial security (54,000); and water supply and sewerage, waste management and remediation activities (50,000).

By class of worker, wage and salary workers accounted for 62.8% of the workforce in May, followed by self-employed individuals without paid employees (27.9%), unpaid family workers (7.5%), and employers in family-operated farms or businesses (1.8%).

Working hours averaged 39.8 hours per week in May, slightly lower than the 39.9 hours in April. Average working hours also fell year on year from the 40.6 hours per week recorded in May 2024.

Inflation woes

However, analysts said the increase in labor participation seen in May was likely a result of inflation concerns.

“High inflation, uncertainties, and insufficient employment opportunities made people, including those that were initially part of the labor force, go out and contribute to the financial resources of the family. Having just one earner in the family is no longer enough — not even two earners,” Maria Ella Calaor-Oplas, an economics professor who specializes in human capital development research at De La Salle University, said in a Facebook Messenger chat.

She added that the midterm elections likely boosted employment opportunities.

“The LFPR is plausibly increasing because family incomes are so low, and prices of basic goods and services are so expensive, that more household members are driven to more actively seek work,” IBON Foundation Executive Director Jose Enrique “Sonny” A. Africa likewise said in a Viber message. “Unpacking this seemingly favorable increase shows more and more Filipinos trying to scrape out a living from whatever informal and poor-quality work they can find from an economy that is failing to create regular and decently paying work.”

Mr. Africa said the government should focus on developing the agriculture and industrial sectors to boost employment.

Federation of Free Workers President Jose Sonny G. Matula also said that the government should focus on domestic-led job creation by supporting small businesses and cooperative and rural enterprises and providing better wages, as the year-on-year increase in underemployment shows that many jobs in the country are “still low-paying or insecure.” — Adrian H. Halili, Reporter

The Philippines’ dollar reserves inched up to USD 105.32 billion as of end-June on the back of the National Government’s foreign currency deposits and the central bank’s investment earnings.

Preliminary data from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) released late on Monday showed that the end-June gross international reserves (GIR) edged up by 0.14% from the USD 105.18 billion recorded as of May.

This marked the first month-on-month increase since February.

The central bank said the rise was “mainly due to foreign currency deposits by the National Government with the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas and income from BSP investments.”

Year on year, dollar reserves also inched up by 0.13% from USD 105.19 billion.

International reserves are foreign assets of the BSP held mostly as investments in foreign-issued securities, monetary gold, and foreign exchange. These are supplemented by claims to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in the form of reserve position in the fund and special drawing rights (SDRs).

Ample reserves help protect the country from market volatility and external shocks and ensure that it is capable of financing its imports and paying its debt obligations, as well as stabilizing the currency, in the event of an economic downturn.

The BSP said the end-June GIR level covers about 3.3 times the country’s short-term external debt based on residual maturity.

It is also equivalent to 7.2 months’ worth of imports of goods and payments of services and primary income, providing a “robust” liquidity buffer.

Broken down, the BSP’s foreign exchange holdings surged by 73.89% to USD 1.24 billion at end-June from USD 712.2 million as of May. Year on year, it climbed by 54.36% from USD 802.2 million.

Meanwhile, foreign investments slipped by 0.55% to USD 85.66 billion as of June from USD 86.13 billion the month prior. It likewise went down by 4.81% from USD 89.99 billion in the same period last year.

The value of the central bank’s gold holdings inched up by 0.56% to USD 13.8 billion at end-June from USD 13.73 billion as of May. Year on year, it climbed by 39.3% from USD 9.91 billion.

The country’s reserve position in the IMF rose by 2.32% to USD 732.4 million in the period from USD 715.8 million a month earlier but was down by 1.08% from USD 740.4 million a year ago.

SDRs — or the amount which the Philippines can tap from the IMF’s reserve currency basket — was unchanged month on month at USD 3.89 billion at end-June. Year on year, it went up by 3.85% from USD 3.75 billion.

Meanwhile, net international reserves increased by 0.29% to USD 105.3 billion at end-June from USD 105 billion as of end-May. Net international reserves refer to the difference between the GIR and reserve liabilities, including short-term foreign debt, and credit and loans from the IMF.

“The strong demand for government securities was one of the factors for the strong inflow of dollars,” said Reinielle Matt M. Erece, an economist at Oikonomia Advisory and Research, Inc.

“Apart from relatively stable macroeconomic conditions, the reaffirmation of the country’s credit rating by major credit rating agencies also helped in making the country an attractive destination especially for foreign funds.”

Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said the country’s dollar reserves rose at end-June after declining for three consecutive months, reflecting improved sentiment amid the volatility caused by the Trump administration’s protectionist policies and geopolitical concerns.

He added that the increase was also driven by elevated world gold prices, which drove up the value of the BSP’s holdings of the precious metal.

“World gold prices hovered near record highs recently after some demand for safe havens due to geopolitical risks during the month, particularly the Israel-Iran attacks,” Mr. Ricafort said.

The Philippines’ improved economic and credit fundamentals are expected to help further boost reserves moving forward, he added.

The BSP expects dollar reserves to reach USD 104 billion this year. — Aubrey Rose A. Inosante,Reporter

Manufacturing increased for a second straight month in May at its fastest pace in 10 months, driven by food products, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) reported on Tuesday.

However, analysts said lingering uncertainty over US President Donald J. Trump’s planned reciprocal tariffs could dampen demand for locally made goods.

Manufacturing output, measured by the volume of production index (VoPI), climbed to 4.9% year on year in May, according to the preliminary results of the Monthly Integrated Survey of Selected Industries.

This was faster than 4.2% in the same month last year and 4.3% in April. It was also the quickest growth in 10 months or since 7.2% in July 2024.

Adjusting for seasonality factors, VoPI declined 2.9%, a steep fall from the 15% growth in the previous month.

The May VoPI reading brought average manufacturing output growth to 1.8% for the first five months, a tad faster than the 1.7% seen in the same period in 2024.

The PSA attributed the year-on-year acceleration in the VoPI to the faster manufacture of food products, which rose by 15.7% from April’s 11.2% and 3.1% in May last year. The food products index accounted for 18.7% of factory output.

This was followed by transport equipment, which recorded a 13.5% increase from 7.4% the month prior.

Average capacity utilization, or the extent to which industry resources are used in producing goods, averaged 76.9% in May. This was slightly higher than 76.7% in the previous month and 75.2% in May 2023.

“Manufacturing is slowly but surely growing. Hopefully, it will continue the trend,” Philippine Exporters Confederation, Inc. President Sergio R. Ortiz-Luis, Jr. said in a phone interview.

Reinielle Matt M. Erece, an economist at Oikonomia Advisory and Research, Inc., said strong domestic demand was the primary driver of manufacturing activity.

“Despite external factors and global trade tensions weighing down on exports, household demand continues to be strong and is one of the primary drivers of growth,” he said in an e-mail.

In May, the country’s trade deficit in goods further narrowed to a three-month low in May as exports grew while imports further declined. The trade deficit narrowed to USD 3.29 billion in May from the USD 4.73-billion gap in the same month last year, PSA data showed.

Exports grew for the fifth straight month in May by 15.1% to USD 7.29 billion. Meanwhile, imports fell for the second consecutive month in May by 4.4% to USD 10.58 billion.

Moving forward, Mr. Erece said Mr. Trump’s reciprocal tariffs could weigh on exports and factory activity.

“However, the country’s advantage of having relatively lower tariffs than other neighboring countries will be good for production,” he said. “In addition, if trade negotiations with the US become successful, these developments will further increase demand for produced goods by Philippine industries.”

Miguel Chanco, chief emerging Asia economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, added that the delayed deadline for the Trump’s administration’s proposed higher tariffs is sparking renewed global trade uncertainty.

“[This] means that investments into new productive capacity are likely to remain mostly on the sidelines until the dust settles. Ultimately, this in turn means weaker output growth in the longer term,” Mr. Chanco said in an e-mail.

The Trump administration’s decision to extend a negotiating deadline for tariff rates is prolonging uncertainty and instability for countries, the executive director of the United Nations trade agency said on Tuesday, Reuters re-ported.

Mr. Trump on Monday ramped up his trade war, telling 14 nations, from powerhouse suppliers such as Japan and South Korea to minor trade players, that they now face sharply higher tariffs from a new deadline of Aug. 1 from July 9 previously.

Countries have been under pressure to conclude deals with the US after Mr. Trump unleashed a global trade war in April that roiled financial markets and sent policymakers scrambling to protect their economies.

The US has imposed a blanket 10% tariff rate on its trading partners as they negotiate the planned “reciprocal” levies, under which the Philippines could be slapped a 17% tariff, one of the lowest among Southeast Asian nations.

In comparison, the S&P Global Philippines Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) stood at 50.1 in May, dipping from 54.3 in April. A reading above 50 marks improvement for the manufacturing sector while anything below indicates deterioration.

The PMI is a leading indicator for future manufacturing activity, reflecting the raw materials ordered for future processing into manufactured goods. — Leigh Patrick Q. Batoon with Reuters