Car sales may reach 503,000 in 2026, says CAMPI

Car sales are expected to breach 500,000 this year, driven by rising demand for electrified vehicles (EVs) and multi-purpose vans, according to the Chamber of Automotive Manufacturers of the Philippines, Inc. (CAMPI).

“We see that there’s a big chance that the market can reach 500,000 this year. That’s around a 2% to 2.5% increase,” said Jose Maria M. Atienza on the sidelines of the CAMPI president turnover ceremony on Tuesday.

“We’re pegging it at around 503,000,” he added. “But again, it would depend on how the market grows coming from the trend.”

Auto industry data showed that 491,395 vehicles were sold in 2025, up 3.7% from 473,842 in 2024. This includes sales of CAMPI and Truck Manufacturers Association, Inc. (TMA) members which reached 463,646 in 2025, down 0.8% from 467,252 units sold in 2024.
“For CAMPI and TMA, same as our projection for industry, around 2%,” Mr. Atienza said.

Mr. Atienza said that the outlook reflects the conservative optimism of the industry after seeing a sales decline in the second half of 2025.

“Right now, we are just accepting the reality of what happened during the second half but are still positive that at least we will bottom out and then see some growth,” he said. “But we are very hopeful that the market will reach 500,000 units.”

In particular, he said that the imposition of excise tax on pickup trucks has resulted in a decline in the segment’s sales, especially in the second semester.

“There was a big reduction in our pickup sales because of the change in excise tax structure. So, there’s a big, actually, there’s a 20% drop in pickup sales in the second half compared to maybe the same period in the previous year,” he added.

Mr. Atienza said industry sales growth this year will be driven by demand for EVs as well as multi-purpose vehicles.

“EVs have improved and increased in terms of sales. We also saw some good segments, such as multi-purpose vehicles like L300s and Tamaraws. I think there was a 70% increase,” he said.

“So, there are growth areas in the market. And again, it would just depend on when it will grow. It is a very sound market, and it would depend on when the customers would again have the confidence to purchase more vehicles,” he added.

Data from CAMPI and TMA showed that 32,489 EVs were sold in 2025, accounting for 7.01% market share. Including other available industry data, CAMPI said that EV sales hit 58,905 units last year, which reflect 12% market share.

“We see this growth [continuing]. But of course, it is just a matter of customer preference and how ready we are. But I think we already saw the increase in hybrid and EV sales in 2023, and it continued into last year,” he said.

“And we are quite positive that with the introduction of additional models, this trend would still continue for EVs,” he added.

He also said that the group is expecting some improvement in the passenger car segment after CAMPI members saw a 23.1% drop in passenger car sales to 92,924 in 2025 from 120,770 in 2024.

“It would depend on how much individual brands can introduce new models. There are cycles of demand, again depending on the model introduction,” he said.

Meanwhile, Mr. Atienza said that the group is hoping the government will implement the Revitalizing the Automotive Industry for Competitiveness Enhancement program.

“We all know how important it is for automotive manufacturing. And we are always here to work with the government and concerned agencies on how to make sure that this is finally implemented,” he said.

“I am sure there are many stakeholders also, not only CAMPI, but individual members and even the parts makers and suppliers who really want to see this program through and finally implemented,” he added.

To further attract car manufacturing, he said that the government must pursue initiatives that will make the country more competitive in terms of cost.

“We have a good cost structure, but there are some areas in cost that are not as favorable. So, that is where collaboration with the agencies should come in on how to make the Philippines a good environment for investments,” he added.

On Tuesday, CAMPI held a ceremonial turnover for its new president, Mr. Atienza, who is also the executive vice-president of Toyota Motor Philippines Corp.’s marketing division. He took over from Rommel R. Gutierrez. — Justine Irish D. Tabile, Reporter

Peso falls on Trump’s Korea tariff threat

The peso dropped to the PHP 59-per-dollar level again on Tuesday as US President Donald J. Trump threatened to impose higher tariffs on South Korea.

The local unit ended at P59.085 versus the dollar, weakening by 11.4 centavos from its P58.971 finish on Monday, data from the Bankers Association of the Philippines showed.

The peso opened Tuesday’s trading session weaker at PHP 59.05 against the dollar. Its intraday best was at PHP 59.035, while its worst showing was at PHP 59.10 against the greenback.

Dollars traded went up to USD 1 billion from USD 954 million on Monday.

The peso dropped as the market reacted to Mr. Trump’s fresh tariff threats, the first trader said by phone.

South Korea scrambled on Tuesday to assure the US it remained committed to implementing a trade deal after Mr. Trump said he would hike tariffs on autos and other imports from its ally, blaming a delay in enacting the pact agreed last year, Reuters reported.

Mr. Trump said on Monday that South Korea’s parliament was not living up to its side of the deal by swiftly enacting the agreement he reached with President Lee Jae Myung to make huge investments in US business projects in return for tariff cuts.

South Korea’s presidential Blue House said it was committed to implementing the deal and would continue to take the required steps to finalize it to stave off tariff hikes.

Mr. Trump has upended global trade by imposing tariffs on imports from nearly every country since beginning his second term in office in 2025. In some cases, he has threatened tariff hikes and delayed them or not followed through.

“The peso depreciated anew from stronger than expected US durable goods report, signifying strength in US consumer spending,” the second trader said in a Viber message.

For Wednesday, the second trader said the peso could depreciate further amid expectations that the US Federal Reserve will hold borrowing costs steady at its policy meeting this week.

The first trader sees the peso moving between PHP 58.90 and PHP 59.10 per dollar on Wednesday, while the second trader expects it to range from PHP 59 to PHP 59.25. — A.M.C. Sy with Reuters

Shares up on bargain hunting, Wall Street’s rise

The main stock benchmark rebounded on Tuesday and returned to the 6,300 level as investors picked up bargains following the market’s two-day slump, tracking Wall Street’s climb overnight.

The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) increased by 0.52% or 33.03 points to end at 6,306.90, while the broader all shares index inched up by 0.01% or 0.65 point to 3,581.08.

“Investors went bargain hunting again after two consecutive days of decline… The local bourse was also supported by the positive spillovers from Wall Street,” Philstocks Financial, Inc. Research Manager Japhet Louis O. Tantiangco said in a Viber message.

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq advanced for a fourth consecutive session on Monday, as investors geared up for a slew of megacap earnings and a US Federal Reserve update on interest rate policy later this week, Reuters reported.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 313.69 points or 0.64% to 49,412.40; the S&P 500 gained 34.62 points or 0.5% to 6,950.23; and the Nasdaq Composite gained 100.11 points or 0.43% to 23,601.36.

“The PSEi ended higher after several days of decline, as investors engaged in bargain hunting. Market sentiment was further supported by the ADB’s (Asian Development Bank) forecast that GDP (gross domestic product) growth could reach 6% by 2027 if both private and public investments increase,” Regina Capital Development Corp. Head of Sales Luis A. Limlingan said in a Viber message. “This improved outlook helped lift risk appetite and encouraged selective buying across the market.”

ADB Country Director for the Philippines Andrew Jeffries also said that the country must raise the share of exports in the economy to support long-term growth, as well as diversify its base, and boost resilience.

Sectoral indices closed mixed on Tuesday. Services surged by 1.37% or 34.32 points to 2,535.90; holding firms increased by 1.36% or 68.66 points to 5,088.40; and industrials went up by 0.23% or 20.77 points to 8,987.52.

Meanwhile, mining and oil went down by 1.53% or 288.68 points to 18,515.39; financials fell by 0.65% or 13.86 points to 2,108.60; and property decreased by 0.64% or 14.50 points to 2,252.07.

“Ayala Corp. was the day’s index leader, climbing 3.62% to PHP 529. Alliance Global Group, Inc. (AGI) was at the tail end, falling 5.19% to PHP 7.30,” Mr. Tantiangco said. “This comes following the stock’s announced removal from the PSE index.”

The PSE on Monday said it will add RL Commercial REIT, Inc. to the PSEi and remove AGI effective Feb. 2.

Decliners outnumbered advancers, 112 to 85, while 61 names closed unchanged.

Value turnover surged to PHP 15.85 billion on Tuesday with 2.23 billion shares traded from the PHP 5.77 billion with 1.21 billion issues that changed hands on Monday.

Net foreign buying was at PHP 7.41 billion, a reversal of the PHP 13.06 million in net selling recorded on Monday. — Alexandria Grace C. Magno with Reuters

ADB sees Philippines returning to 6% growth by 2027

The Philippine economy could return to around 6% growth by 2027 if public and private investments rebound, according to Asian Development Bank (ADB) Country Director for the Philippines Andrew Jeffries.

“I think (the drivers are a) kind of a little of everything, but return to high investment, public and private, I think would be, to me, the key driver,” he told reporters on the sidelines of an event on Jan. 23.

Last December, the ADB slashed its Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast to 5% for 2025, from 5.6% previously. For 2026, the ADB trimmed its GDP projection to 5.3% from 5.7% previously.

This comes after a corruption scandal dampened government spending, household consumption, investor confidence and economic activity last year.

The ADB will release its updated economic outlook in April, which will include a 2027 growth forecast.

Mr. Jeffries warned that the cut in Department of Public Works and Highways’ (DPWH) budget this year, could trigger a “big slowdown” in locally funded projects.

“I guess the main variable for 2026 was how fast does the public investment recover? We were thinking maybe two quarters, so it’ll start reviving,” he said.

In a meeting with Public Works Secretary Vivencio “Vince” B. Dizon in December, Mr. Jeffries said they raised concerns about “paralysis,” where key projects risked getting stuck.

“What we’ve heard is they’re trying to make sure the priority projects are not stuck and keep moving forward quickly. I think it’s a twofold exercise,” he said. “It’s cleaning up the problem while full steam ahead on some of the other projects that weren’t a problem.”

Mr. Dizon earlier said the DPWH aims to boost spending while ensuring funds are used wisely and focus on prioritizing the “basics” such as road and bridge maintenance and unfinished projects. The agency’s target spend is set between PHP 200 billion and PHP 250 billion for the first quarter, he added.

Meanwhile, Mr. Jeffries said the Philippines must raise the share of exports in the economy to support long-term growth, as well as diversify its base, and boost resilience.

“It’s not something that happens overnight. It’ll be a combination of policies and attracting investment and improving the business environment and all of those things combined,” Mr. Jeffries said. “But neighbors have done it and the Philippines can do that.”

He noted the Philippines was shielded from external shocks, largely because exports remain a relatively small part of the economy.

“I think it’s still very important that over time that (exports) grow for the Philippines,” he said.

However, Mr. Jeffries added that ambitions for the export industry face logistical challenges.

“The connectivity here is just automatically more expensive and more of a challenge than certain neighbors,” he said.

Reforms needed

The Federation of Filipino Chinese Chambers of Commerce and Industry, Inc. (FFCCCII) said the National Government must pursue reforms to boost confidence as the economy may remain sluggish this year.

In a statement, FFCCCII President Victor R. Lim said the administration should incentivize technology adoption and food security efforts in the manufacturing and agriculture sector, enforce anti-corruption measures, improve protection and ease of doing business for local and foreign investors, as well as build world-class infrastructure to revamp tourism.

It also urged the government to ramp up investments in education, skills and universal healthcare, enhance ports, hubs and broadband to boost market linkages, and advance the country’s sustainable and digital shifts.

For his part, Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said the economy’s return to the 6% growth path is possible due to lower base effects.

“Another factor: Increased government spending to expedite the completion of various projects/programs, especially months before the 2028 presidential elections,” he said in a Viber message on Monday. — Aubrey Rose A. Inosante with Katherine K. Chan

Spending slump likely dragged 2025 GDP growth to 4.7%

Slow government spending amid the flood control graft mess may have led the Philippines to miss its growth target for a third straight year in 2025, according to analysts.

In a report dated Jan. 23, Nomura Global Markets Research economist for China Harrington Zhang said the fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) likely expanded by 3.8%, bringing full-year growth to 4.7%.

“We expect GDP growth to decline further to 3.8% year on year in Q4 from 4% in Q3, reflecting the impact of the sharp fiscal contraction, which has persisted as a result of the ongoing corruption scandal,” Mr. Zhang said.

In the third quarter of 2025, the country’s GDP expanded by 4% — its weakest in over four years — as allegations of corruption among public officials and private contractors behind the country’s flood control projects dampened government spending and household consumption. This brought GDP growth to 5% as of September.

In a separate report, Deutsche Bank economists said that they see the Philippine economy posting a 4.1% growth in the fourth quarter, with the full-year print settling at 4.7%.

If realized, fourth-quarter growth would have slowed from 5.3% in the same quarter in 2024. Full-year GDP growth would have also slowed from 5.7% in 2024.

On the other hand, climate shocks may have also contributed to fourth-quarter growth, which DBS Senior Economist for Eurozone, India, Indonesia Radhika Rao and Global Chief Economist Taimur Baig expect to end at 4.2%. DBS expects 2025 GDP growth to settle at 4.8%.

A BusinessWorld poll of 18 economists last week yielded a 4.2% median estimate for fourth-quarter GDP growth, and 4.8% for 2025.

This also means 2025 could also mark the third year in a row that the government failed to reach its growth goal. The Development Budget Coordination Committee had set a 5.5%-6.5% target for last year.

Nomura and Deutsche Bank’s full-year forecasts are also below the Department of Economy, Planning, and Development’s 4.8%-5% estimate, but are slightly above the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) 4.6% projection.

“Philippines’ Q4 2025 GDP growth is likely to come in at 4.1% YoY (year on year), thus bringing 2025 growth to 4.7%, which outside of the pandemic would be the lowest full-year growth since 2011,” Deutsche Bank said. “Similar to Q3, we expect reduced government outlays, with the associated spillover effects to private investment and spending, to drag on growth.”

Nomura’s Mr. Zhang said the scandal may have continued to hit household consumption and private investments in the last quarter of the year.

“We also expect the negative spillover effects from the scandal to broaden from household consumption to private investment spending, likely due to a prolonged slump in construction activity and the drop in overall business sentiment,” he said.

Deutsche Bank also noted that consumers turned more pessimistic in the fourth quarter, prompting more households to save rather than splurge on costly items.

“This would likely materialize as lower growth in the near term, as household consumption comprises more than 70% of GDP in the Philippines,” it added.

The BSP’s latest Consumer Expectations Survey showed that the consumer confidence index worsened to -22.2% in the fourth quarter from -9.8% in the third quarter.

This was the weakest consumer sentiment logged since late 2021 or during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Philippine Statistics Authority is set to release the fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 GDP report on Thursday, Jan. 29. — Katherine K. Chan

Peso jumps to PHP 58 level on broad dollar weakness

The peso jumped on Monday to return to P58 level amid broad dollar weakness, with the yen also surging against the greenback on intervention bets.

The local unit ended at PHP 58.971 versus the dollar, strengthening by 11.9 centavos from its PHP 59.09 finish on Friday, data from the Bankers Association of the Philippines showed.

This was the peso’s strongest finish in more than three weeks or since it closed at PHP 58.841 on Jan. 2, which was also the last time it finished at the PHP 58 range.

The currency opened Monday’s trading session stronger at P58.97 against the dollar. Its intraday best was at PHP 58.92, while its worst showing was at PHP 59.048 against the greenback.

Dollars traded went down to USD 954 million from USD 1.159 billion on Friday.

The dollar was generally weaker on Monday as the yen jumped amid speculations of market intervention, a trader said by phone.

The yen jumped to more than a two-month high on Monday as speculation mounted that coordinated intervention by authorities in the US and Japan could be imminent, a prospect Tokyo’s top currency diplomat left wide open while keeping markets guessing, Reuters reported.

Investors were also trimming dollar positions ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting and possible announcement by the Trump administration of a new Fed chairman.

The yen rose as much as 1.2% to 153.89 per dollar, its strongest since November. The euro made a four-month high of USD 1.1898 and was last up 0.2% at USD 1.1855.

A source told Reuters that the New York Federal Reserve had checked dollar/yen rates with dealers, seen as a precursor to intervention, and the scramble to get out of short yen positions has the currency some 3% off Friday’s low.

Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama declined to comment on the rate checks, while top currency diplomat Atsushi Mimura said the government would maintain close coordination with the United States on foreign exchange and act appropriately.

The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was down 0.1% at a four-month low of 97.155.

Several other Asian currencies also strengthened, with the Korean won climbing 1.5%, the Malaysian ringgit advancing to its strongest since June 2018 and the Singapore dollar surging to its strongest in more than a decade.

The peso was also supported by signals from Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. that the local unit is unlikely to reach the P60 level versus the dollar in the near term, Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said in a Viber message.

For Tuesday, the trader sees the peso moving between PHP 58.80 and PHP 59.10 per dollar on market positioning of market players ahead of the Fed’s policy meeting, while Mr. Ricafort expects it to range from PHP 58.85 to PHP 59.05 per dollar. — Aaron Michael C. Sy with Reuters

PSEi sinks to 6,200 level before GDP data release

The main index dropped to the 6,200 level on Monday, hitting a three-week low, as the market opted to stay on the sidelines before the release of Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) data and amid geopolitical concerns.

The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) slumped by 0.93% or 59.39 points to close at 6,273.87, while the all shares index declined by 0.52% or 18.88 points to finish at 3,580.43.

This was the stock benchmark’s lowest close in three weeks or since it finished at 6,164.53 on Jan. 5.

“The PSEi ended lower, extending its decline from last week after breaking below the 6,300 level. Trading was cautious as buying pressure stayed on the sidelines,” Regina Capital Development Corp. Head of Sales Luis A. Limlingan said in a Viber message. “Expectations of a low fourth-quarter GDP print dampened sentiment, prompting continued profit taking and defensive positioning across sectors.”

“The market took a defensive stance, selling local equities amid rising geopolitical uncertainty and in anticipation of the weak 4Q25 GDP growth print on Thursday,” AP Securities, Inc. likewise said in a market note.

The Philippine Statistics Authority will release fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 GDP data on Thursday, Jan. 29.

The economy may have grown by an annual 4.2% from October to December, according to a median forecast of 18 economists polled by BusinessWorld.

If realized, this is much slower than the 5.3% expansion in the same period in 2024 but would be faster than the over four-year low of 4% recorded in the third quarter of 2025.

This would put the full-year average at 4.8%, below the government’s 5.5%-6.5% growth target. This would also be slower than the 5.7% expansion in 2024 and the weakest since the 9.5% contraction posted in 2020.

Analysts said slower government spending and weakening investor confidence due to a wide-ranging corruption scandal involving anomalous flood-control and infrastructure projects likely continued to drag economic growth.

Most sectoral indices closed in the red. Services sank by 2.06% or 52.79 points to 2,501.58; property decreased by 1.13% or 25.95 points to 2,266.57; industrials went down by 0.78% or 70.99 points to 8,966.75; and holding firms retreated by 0.73% or 37.13 points to 5,019.74.

Meanwhile, mining and oil surged by 3.22% or 587.72 points to 18,804.07, and financials went up by 0.44% or 9.44 points to 2,122.46.

Market breadth was negative as decliners outnumbered advancers, 117 to 88, while 62 names closed unchanged.

Value turnover went down to PHP 5.77 billion on Monday with 1.21 billion shares traded from the PHP 6.29 billion with 758.07 million issues that changed hands on Friday.

Net foreign selling decreased to PHP 13.06 million from PHP 574.16 million. — AGCM

BSP uncertain on further easing in the near term

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) said another rate cut this year is uncertain amid current economic conditions, signaling a looming end to its current easing cycle.

Asked if he sees one more cut under the current easing cycle, BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. said: “Even that cut is still a maybe. Hindi pa sigurado. (It’s not certain).”

On the sidelines of a BSP event on Friday, the central bank chief told reporters they would consider subdued inflation and tepid growth to spur demand in deciding on their next policy move.

However, Mr. Remolona noted that a weaker-than-expected output in the fourth quarter of 2025 may not automatically warrant a reduction to the key interest rate in February.

“It would help us decide (whether) to cut (but) it’s not the only factor,” he said, adding that inflation remains the top deciding factor for the Monetary Board.

The BSP has been on an easing path since August 2024. It has lowered key borrowing costs by a total of 200 basis points (bps), bringing it to an over three-year low of 4.5%.

In 2025, it delivered five straight 25-bp cuts, including its last two cuts driven by benign inflation and dim investor and consumer sentiment amid the flood control corruption scandal.

The economy slumped in the third quarter of last year to an over four-year low of 4% as the flood mess dampened government spending and household consumption. As of September, the Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) growth stood at 5%.

The BSP expects GDP growth to settle at sub-4% in the last quarter of 2025 to bring the full-year print to 4.6%. If realized, the government would miss its 5.5%-6.5% target for the year.

The Monetary Board is set to hold its first policy review this year on Feb. 19.

John Paolo R. Rivera, a senior research fellow at the Philippine Institute for Development Studies, said the governor’s tone shift implies that a sixth consecutive cut is now unlikely.

“Governor Eli’s more cautious tone signals that a February cut is no longer a base case and that the BSP is shifting toward risk management amid PHP (Philippine peso) weakness and uncertain inflation dynamics,” he said in a Viber message. “Markets may now price a shallower or earlier end to the easing cycle.”

Mr. Rivera added that the peso may gain some support if the Monetary Board decides to hold steady at its first policy review this year but noted that economic growth may get the shorter end of the stick.

“A pause at the first meeting would help anchor expectations and reduce forex (foreign exchange) pressure, but it also means less monetary support for growth, putting more weight on fiscal execution and structural reforms to carry the expansion,” he said.

The Philippine Statistics Authority will release the fourth-quarter and full-year GDP report on Thursday, Jan. 29.

Meanwhile, Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said sluggish fourth-quarter growth and the peso’s volatility would call for another 25-bp cut next month.

“Two main factors for a possible (25-bp) BSP rate cut on the next BSP rate-setting meeting on Feb. 19, 2026: Delicate balancing act to further support economic/GDP growth especially if the latest data… would remain soft,” Mr. Ricafort said via Viber.

“(A)nother important consideration would be the need to stabilize the peso exchange rate versus the US dollar… (and) the expected Fed rate pause for now, as another (25-bp) BSP rate cut on Feb. 19, 2026 would narrow the interest rate differential to the lowest on record at (50 bps),” he added.

Mr. Remolona said they are considering the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy moves but noted that “it’s one data point among many.”

The Fed has so far delivered 175 bps in cuts since September 2024, bringing its key policy rate to the 3.5%-3.75% range. It is set to have its first meeting this year on Jan. 27-28.

Mr. Remolona also on Friday said they would defend the peso during a PHP 60: USD 1 scenario depending on its movement.

Asked if the BSP would intervene once it hits PHP 60 against the dollar, he said: “Depends (on) how it gets there. Just because it’s P60 doesn’t mean we’ll defend it.”

The central bank will likely stick to minimal intervention just to prevent sharp swings in the local currency, the BSP chief added.

“We do what we’ve always done,” Mr. Remolona said. “We try to avoid sharp movements in the peso.”

The Palace earlier said that President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. hopes the exchange rate will not reach the PHP 60-per-dollar level.

According to Mr. Remolona, the peso might not trade at PHP 60 versus the greenback anytime soon.

The peso fell to PHP 59.46 against the dollar on Jan. 15, marking a fresh low for the local unit after it exceeded the previous record of PHP 59.44 on Jan. 14.

It recovered to a PHP 59.09 finish on Friday, gaining seven centavos from its PHP 59.16 close on Thursday, based on data from the Bankers’ Association of the Philippines. — Katherine K. Chan, Reporter

Vehicle sales drop by 0.8% in 2025, falls short of target

Philippine automative sales can reach 500,000 this year if interest rates improve after sales in 2025 fell short of the industry’s target, analysts said.

A joint report by the Chamber of Automotive Manufacturers of the Philippines, Inc. (CAMPI) and the Truck Manufacturers Association (TMA) sent on Friday showed that 463,646 cars were sold last year, down by 0.8% from 467,252 units sold in 2024.

Including other industry data, CAMPI said total vehicle sales stood at 491,395 units in 2025, up 3.7% from 473,842 a year prior.

In December alone, CAMPI-TMA members sold 42,870 units, up 2% from 42,044 units sold in the same period a year ago.

“The industry delivered a modest growth last year due to the overall unfavorable market environment during the second half caused by a number of factors such as the reimposition of excise tax on pickup trucks and several natural calamities experienced across the country,” CAMPI said.

Reyes Tacandong & Co. Senior Adviser Jonathan L. Ravelas said that the slight dip in car sales last year reflects “more of a pause than a downturn.”

“Still elevated interest rates, fuel prices, and tighter household budgets made buyers cautious, especially for passenger vehicles, which are more discretionary,” he said in a Viber message.

“That is why CAMPI fell short of the 500,000 target — demand did not disappear; it was delayed,” he added.

According to the industry report, passenger car sales dropped by 23.1% to 92,924 in 2025 from 120,770 in 2024.

In December alone, passenger car sales declined by 20.9% to 8,009 from 10,125 units sold in the same period a year prior.

Commercial vehicle sales, which accounted for almost four-fifths of the total industry sales, rose by 7% to 370,722 in 2025, from the 346,482 units sold in 2024.

In December alone, commercial vehicle sales increased by 8.6% to 34,861 from 32,109 units sold in the same month in 2024.

“The underperformance of passenger vehicles reflects shifting consumer preferences and structural changes in the market,” said Toby Allan C. Arce, head of sales trading at Globalinks Securities and Stocks, Inc., in a Viber message.

“Buyers are increasingly favoring used vehicles, ride-hailing, or shared-mobility options, particularly in urban areas where traffic congestion and ownership costs reduce the appeal of owning a private car,” he added.

Michael L. Ricafort, chief economist at Rizal Commercial Banking Corp., said that the decline could also be attributed to the faster growth in motorcycle sales in recent months.

“[They] have become a cheaper alternative transport for some Filipinos in terms of lower acquisition costs, maintenance costs, fuel consumption, and space requirements,” he said in a Viber message.

He said that demand for motorcycles has been increasing due to the “boom in delivery and motorcycle taxi services.”

Broken down, sales of Asian utility vehicles jumped by 7.2% to 87,731, while sales of light commercial vehicles went up by 7.2% to 271,630 units.

In 2025, sales of medium-duty trucks slipped by 7.1% to 3,690, while sales of light and heavy trucks grew by 3.6% and 20.5% to 6,783 and 888 units, respectively.

“Sub-segments such as the 1Ton+ multi-purpose vehicles contributed to the industry’s 2025 performance, with a 76.6% increase compared to 2024,” CAMPI said.

“Models in this category include Toyota Tamaraw, Mitsubishi L300 FB, and Isuzu Travis, among others,” it added.

Toyota Motor Philippines Corp. remained the market leader, with sales of 229,447 units in 2025, up by 5.2% from 218,019 units in 2024. It accounted for 49.49% of the market share.

Mitsubishi Motors Philippines Corp. ranked second with a market share of 18.72% after sales fell by 2.6% to 86,808 units from 89,124 units a year ago.

In third spot was Suzuki Phils., Inc., whose sales increased by 7.9% to 21,984 with a market share of 4.74%.

Rounding out the top five were Ford Motor Co. Phils., Inc., which saw a 22.2% drop in sales to 21,784, and Nissan Philippines, Inc., which saw a 23.2% decline in sales to 20,571 units.

Outlook

Meanwhile, Mr. Arce said the industry can reach 500,000 sales this year, but the outlook is still sensitive to economic and policy developments.

“Reaching the 500,000 mark in 2026 will likely depend on a combination of lower financing costs, improved affordability, and a clearer value proposition for consumers, rather than a broad-based surge in demand across all vehicle segments,” he said.

In particular, he said the central bank’s easing monetary policy has the potential to “unlock pent-up demand from consumers who postponed purchases in 2025.”

“Continued infrastructure development, fleet modernization, and stronger business confidence could support commercial vehicle sales, while broader availability of more affordable models and improved supply chains may help revive passenger vehicle demand,” Mr. Arce said.

However, he said that “any renewed inflationary pressures, slower economic growth, or delays in interest rate cuts could again weigh on consumer sentiment.”

“Looking to 2026, hitting 500,000 units is achievable if financing conditions ease and income growth improves,” said Mr. Ravelas.

“The main challenges remain inflation, exchange rate volatility, and expensive credit — but if these ease, 2026 could be the year pent-up demand comes through,” he added.

Electric and hybrid vehicles may also boost industry sales this year.

Data from CAMPI and TMA showed that 32,489 EVs were sold in 2025, accounting for 7.01% market share.

Including other available industry data, EV sales hit 58,905 units, which reflect 12% market share.

“Combined battery, plug-in hybrid, and hybrid EV sales grew 142.5% versus 2024,” said CAMPI President Jose Maria Atienza in a statement on Friday.

“This highlights the public’s growing acceptance and demand for electrified technologies,” he added.

Mr. Ricafort said that better weather conditions in 2026 could help increase demand for cars.

He also cited the increased demand for EVs and hybrid vehicles as potential sales growth drivers amid increasing competition, which is helping “reduce prices and increase options for Filipino buyers.” — Justine Irish D. Tabile, Reporter

Marcos admin to stick to deficit targets

The Marcos administration will stick to the fiscal deficit targets, Finance Secretary Frederick D. Go said, while analysts warned this may be more challenging amid expectations of weaker revenue collection.

Asked if the government tweaked its deficit ceilings, Mr. Go on Friday told reporters no changes were made to the targets.

The government set the deficit ceiling at PHP 1.65 trillion or 5.3% of gross domestic product for 2026. For 2027, the deficit ceiling was set at PHP 1.6 trillion or 4.8% of GDP, followed by PHP 1.55 trillion or 4.3% of GDP by 2028.

The Development Budget Coordination Committee has trimmed the targets of the revenue-generating agencies this year, potentially affecting fiscal consolidation efforts.

The Bureau of Internal Revenue’s (BIR) revenue collection target was cut by 4.14% to PHP 3.431 trillion this year, while the Bureau of Customs’ (BoC) target was trimmed by 1.07% to PHP 1.003 trillion.

The BTr’s cash operations report, which includes the December and full-year fiscal deficit figures, will be released on March 3.

In the first 11 months, the budget deficit widened to PHP 1.26 trillion, about 80.92% of the PHP 1.56-trillion full-year 2025 target.

Meanwhile, analysts warned that weak revenue collections from the BIR and BoC could make it more difficult for the administration to keep the 2026 deficit within target.

Jonathan L. Ravelas, a senior adviser at Reyes Tacandong & Co., said cutting the BIR and BoC’s collection goals by around PHP 160 billion makes it more difficult to bring down the deficit to 5.3% of GDP.

“It basically means the government has less revenue cushion, so if spending isn’t tightened or offsetting revenues don’t materialize, the deficit will widen,” he said in a Viber message on Sunday.

Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said the government’s 5.3% fiscal deficit target for 2026 will be “challenging to achieve” amid lower projected revenue collections.

Pressures such as slower economic activity, geopolitical risks, and local political noise could dampen tax receipts and widen the budget gap, he said in a Viber message over the weekend.

Privatization

Meanwhile, Mr. Go said he has directed the Privatization and Management Office (PMO) to look at government assets based on what is more “realistic” to sell.

“I asked them to get back to me to arrange it according to what they believe is more realistic,” the Finance chief added.

Based on the 2026 Budget of Expenditures and Sources of Financing, proceeds from the government’s privatization program are expected to surge to PHP 101 billion in 2026 from PHP 5 billion last year. — Aubrey Rose A. Inosante

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