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Archives: Business World Article

PSEi tumbles to four-month low on tariff threats

PSEi tumbles to four-month low on tariff threats

Philippine shares plummeted on Tuesday, with the benchmark index falling to the 6,100 level and hitting a four-month low, following US President Donald J. Trump’s latest tariff threats. 

The bellwether Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) fell by 2.17% or 136.34 points to close at 6,145.24, while the broader all shares index dropped by 1.41% or 53.03 points to end at 3,684.55.

This was the PSEi’s worst close in over four months or since it finished at 6,138 on April 21.

“The local market started the week on a negative tone as the US’ latest tariff threats weighed on sentiment. US President Donald Trump warned of significant tariffs against China if the country would not export rare earth magnets to the US,” Philstocks Financial Inc. Research Manager Japhet Louis O. Tantiangco said in a Viber message.

“The US President also warned of additional tariffs to countries that would not remove taxes and other measures on digital services,” he added.

On Monday, Mr. Trump said China had to give the United States rare earth magnets or “we have to charge them 200% tariff or something,” Reuters reported.

Senior Chinese trade negotiator Li Chenggang is expected to travel to Washington this week to meet US officials, a United States government spokesperson said, with the two superpowers looking to chart a path beyond their current truce.

Mr. Trump also threatened countries that have digital taxes with “subsequent additional tariffs” on their goods if those nations do not remove such legislation.

“The market saw a decline today as most stocks were weighed down by heavy selling pressure,” Regina Capital Development Corp. Head of Sales Luis A. Limlingan said in a Viber message.

“Investors are positioning ahead of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) policy rate decision this week, with all eyes on how the stock market will react once the central bank’s move is confirmed,” he added. The BSP is widely expected to deliver a third straight 25-basis-point cut at the Monetary Board’s policy meeting on Thursday.

Almost all sectoral indices closed lower on Tuesday. Services fell by 5.46% or 124.49 points to 2,151.69; financials sank by 3.02% or 64.05 points to 2,052.40; holding firms went down by 0.41% or 21.67 points to 5,183.79; property declined by 0.26% or 6.43 points to 2,438.03; and industrials retreated by 0.1% or 9.75 points to 9,103.17. 

Meanwhile, mining and oil rose by 1.04% or 99.50 points to 9,588.74. 

“Ayala Land, Inc. was the top index gainer for the day, jumping 5.17% to PHP 28.50. BDO Unibank, Inc. was the worst index performer, plunging 7.99% to PHP 131.20,” Mr. Tantiangco said.

Value turnover jumped to PHP 14.32 billion on Tuesday with 1.55 billion shares traded from the PHP 6.44 billion with 803.64 million shares exchanged on Friday.

Decliners outnumbered advancers, 112 versus 81, while 64 names were unchanged.

Net foreign selling swelled to PHP 2.04 billion on Tuesday from PHP 721.91 million on Friday. — Revin Mikhael D. Ochave with Reuters

Poll: BSP likely to cut rates by 25 bps

Poll: BSP likely to cut rates by 25 bps

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) is widely expected to cut rates for a third straight meeting on Thursday amid a continued downtrend in inflation and a slowdown in economic growth, analysts said.

A BusinessWorld poll conducted last week showed that all 20 analysts surveyed expect the Monetary Board to cut the target reverse repurchase rate by 25 basis points (bps) at its policy meeting on Aug. 28.

If realized, this would bring the benchmark rate to 5% from the current 5.25%.

The central bank has so far lowered borrowing costs by a total of 125 bps since it began its easing cycle in August last year. It delivered two 25-bp cuts at each of its meetings in May and June.

“Inflation is currently trailing well below the BSP’s 2-4% target band, easing to as low as 0.9% year on year in July. Given the performance of inflation so far, the BSP, we believe, has the runway to quicken and, most especially, deepen its easing cycle,” HSBC economist for ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) Aris D. Dacanay said.

Inflation fell to 0.9% in July, the lowest in nearly six years, or since the 0.6% print posted in October 2019. It also marked the fifth straight month that inflation settled below the central bank’s 2-4% target range.

“The primary catalyst for this expected policy shift stems from subdued inflationary pressures,” Maybank Economist Azril Rosli said. “We believe this persistent undershooting of the inflation target provides the BSP some room of policy space to support economic growth without compromising price stability,” he added.

For the first seven months of the year, inflation averaged 1.7%, a tad higher than the BSP’s 1.6% full-year forecast.

“Softer price growth has provided relief to both consumers and businesses, who had contended with elevated inflation from 2022 through mid-2024,” Moody’s Analytics economist Sarah Tan said in an e-mail.

Deutsche Bank Research said inflation is likely to stay below the BSP’s 2-4% target until early 2026.

“President Marcos’ order to suspend rice imports in September to October this year could add some upsides to inflation, but it is unlikely to cause overshoots in inflation for a sustained period, barring any extensions to the suspension or increases in tariffs on rice imports,” it said.

Earlier this month, President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. ordered a halt on rice imports for 60 days starting Sept. 1 to provide relief for farmers.

“While CPI (consumer price index) readings should accelerate from here, contained domestic rice prices and a reversal in oil should keep inflation subdued,” ING Bank said in a report.

Slowing growth

Slowing economic growth may also be a factor in the Monetary Board’s decision to continue its easing cycle, analysts said.

“Economic growth is still struggling to regain positive momentum, as we’ve all seen in this month’s Q2 GDP (gross domestic product) release and inflation remains comfortably below the BSP’s target range, a situation that we think will persist until the end of 2025, providing the Board with ample room for more easing,” Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Emerging Asia Economist Miguel Chanco said in an e-mail.

In the April-to-June period, GDP expanded by an annual 5.5%, picking up from 5.4% in the first quarter but slower than the 6.5% growth in the second quarter of 2024.

Security Bank Chief Economist Angelo B. Taningco said the Monetary Board will likely look at the “need to accelerate GDP growth,” after first half growth was below the government’s target for the year.

For the first half, the Philippines’ GDP growth averaged 5.4%, slower than the 6.2% a year ago. This was slightly below the government’s 5.5% to 6.5% growth target range for this year.

Matt Reinielle M. Erece, an economist at Oikonomia Advisory and Research, Inc., said in a Viber message that “underwhelming” economic growth and below-target inflation will prompt the BSP to continue easing to boost consumer spending and business expansion.

“A more accommodative financial environment therefore is seen to help stimulate consumption and investments especially, as expensive imports and weaker export demand are expected to exert some downward pressure on growth,” Marian Monette Q. Florendo, a research and business analytics officer at Metrobank, said.

Challenging headwinds created by the US tariff rates are also expected to weigh on Philippine growth momentum.

“With the economy still contending with external risks such as higher US tariffs and global policy uncertainties, the BSP may consider a more accommodative policy stance to lend more support to the economy and help meet the government’s growth targets,” Chinabank Research said.

Earlier this month, the US began imposing a 19% tariff on Philippine goods.

“Lower policy rates will help support investment and credit amid the incoming slowdown in global trade. So far, credit, investment, and consumption, though improving, are not growing as fast as it used to be prior to the pandemic,” Mr. Dacanay said.

Chinabank Research said the central bank may also consider the Federal Reserve’s policy direction.

“The BSP will likely take into account the developments in the Fed’s monetary policy, given its influence on the USD-PHP exchange rate and its potential subsequent impact on domestic inflation,” it said.

Last week, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell signaled a possible rate cut at the US central bank’s meeting next month amid persistent inflation and employment woes.

Mr. Dacanay said that a 25-bp cut would mean narrowing the spread between the BSP rate and the upper bound of the Federal Funds Rate.

“If the BSP does loosen the monetary reins (this) week, the spread between the BSP rate and the upper-bound rate of the Fed rate would narrow to as low as 50 bps,” he said. “That would be the narrowest policy rate differential seen since the BSP shifted to an inflation targeting framework back in 2002.”

The upper bound of the Federal Funds Rate target range currently stands at 4.5%. This rate, set by the Federal Open Market Committee, is the interest rate that commercial banks use when lending excess reserves to each other.

Ms. Florendo said the current peso level provides the central bank with leeway to narrow the differential.

“Current USD/PHP level, which remains within the P56-to-P57 level, signals that peso has space to absorb a narrower IRD (interest rate differential). Moreover, a weak dollar environment is expected to partially offset its impact,” Ms. Florendo said.

Further cuts

Analysts said they expect the BSP to continue easing in the fourth quarter. After the Aug. 28 review, the Monetary Board is scheduled to meet again on Oct. 9 and Dec. 11.

Union Bank of the Philippines, Inc. Chief Economist Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion said he expects the next rate cut to occur as early as Oct. 9, “assuming inflation remains subdued, and growth continues to underperform.”

Mr. Dacanay said he sees the BSP lowering the benchmark rate by another 25 bps to 4.75% in the fourth quarter, and another 25 bps to 4.5% in the first quarter of 2026 “subject to rice inflation being manageable.”

Metrobank Chief Economist Nicholas Antonio T. Mapa said the BSP will remain data dependent but could cut rates again in December.

Bank of the Philippine Islands Chief Economist Emilio S. Neri, Jr. said the BSP “seems determined” to cut again in the fourth quarter and “some more in 2026.”

“We think the outlook remains too uncertain that they may end up taking back some of those cuts next year or in 2027,” he said.

Philippine National Bank economist Alvin Joseph A. Arogo said it is “more prudent” for the BSP to pause in October and December due to upward risks to 2026 inflation and uncertainty over the Fed’s rate cuts.

University of Asia and the Pacific economist Victor A. Abola said the central bank should be as aggressive in lowering rates as they were with the hikes in 2022.

“Be more consistent and do at least 50 bps now and another 25 bps after a month. The economy needs to rebound from the extraordinarily high nominal and real interest rates,” Mr. Abola said. — Katherine K. Chan

Gov’t eyes PHP 194B from privatization of big-ticket assets

Gov’t eyes PHP 194B from privatization of big-ticket assets

The Department of Finance (DoF) is eyeing to raise PHP 193.65 billion from the privatization of big-ticket government assets, including the Financial Center Area in Pasay City and Food Terminal, Inc. (FTI) property in Taguig City, by 2026.

In a document sent to BusinessWorld, the Privatization and Management Office (PMO) outlined a pipeline of 11 major assets slated for disposal this year and in 2026.

Finance Undersecretary Catherine L. Fong said the department has a “solid plan” for privatization but expects challenges in implementing it.

“The reason I’m not confident is that even if there’s a willing buyer, every sale includes so many things we need to do or fix before a sale is actually concluded and it always takes time,” she said in a Viber message on Monday.

The 2026 pipeline includes the 129,548-square-meter (sq.m.) Financial Center Area in Pasay City which has an estimated value of PHP 53.5 billion.

The sale of the FTI property in Taguig City is estimated to generate PHP 40.4 billion.

Also, up for sale are the Ecology Villages I, II, and III in Makati City, collectively valued at PHP 13.61 billion.

Ms. Fong earlier said the PMO is currently in the process of selling the Ecology Villages to the occupants but may take a while since they still need to determine the metes and bounds, subdivide titles and negotiate on the common areas.

The Mile Long Complex in Makati City, valued at PHP 12.26 billion, is also scheduled for privatization next year.

The sale of the 210,000-sq.m. National Housing Authority property in Tala, Caloocan is expected to generate PHP 2.74 billion.

“Currently classified as PEZA (Philippine Economic Zone Authority) area occupied by various locators and under the management of Land Bank Resources and Development Corp. (LBRDC),” it said.

The Pioneer Glass Manufacturing Corp. property in Rosario, Cavite, which covers 17 parcels of land, is expected to generate PHP 2.06 billion. The land is currently occupied by around 15 informal settler families.

The PMO also plans to sell 24 condominium units and 21 parking slots at the Atrium in Makati City, with an estimated value of PHP 449.6 million.

The list also includes the Caliraya-Botocan-Kalayaan (CBK) hydroelectric power plants, even though the Power Sector Assets and Liabilities Management  Corp. issued a notice of award last month to the Thunder Consortium. The consortium, composed of Aboitiz Renewables, Inc., Sumitomo Corp., and Electric Power Development Co., submitted a PHP 36.27-billion bid.

The PMO clarified that the sale of the CBK power plants is “still awaiting financial close.”

Sale of shares

The government is also planning to sell its shares in several companies, including South Luzon Expressway Corp. and Semirara Mining and Power Corp. (SMPC).

According to the PMO, it plans to sell 725 million shares in South Luzon Expressway, which are valued at between PHP 12.04 billion and PHP 24.8 billion, based on a per-share value ranging from PHP 16.61 to PHP 34.21 apiece.

It also plans to sell over 145 million shares in SMPC, valued at PHP 4.73 billion or PHP 32.50 per share.

Consunji-led SMPC is the country’s largest coal producer. It supplies fuel to power plants, cement factories, and other industrial facilities across the Philippines, and exports to markets including China, South Korea, and Brunei.

The government is also looking to sell 682 million shares in United Coconut Chemicals, valued at PHP 2.82 billion or PHP 4.13 apiece. The state currently holds a 92.85% ownership stake in the company.

Asked about the exclusion of Star City amusement park in Pasay City from the list of assets to be privatized, Ms. Fong said the property is being used to back Sukuk bonds.

“We cannot sell it until the Sukuk bonds are done. Although we’re open to selling it in advance but we cannot transfer ownership until after the period of the Sukuk bonds,” she said.

The government is targeting to generate P101 billion from the privatization of assets in 2026.

For 2025, Ms. Fong said the government has collected PHP 5.53 billion in privatization revenues, exceeding its PHP 5-billion target.

Finance Secretary Ralph G. Recto earlier said no other major assets are expected to be sold this year aside from the Laguna power plant.

Ambitious goal

Analysts said the government hitting its “ambitious” privatization goal remains feasible but cautioned against relying on asset sale to address fiscal constraints.

“It is ambitious but feasible provided the government accelerates the pipeline and addresses investor concerns such as regulatory stability, asset valuation, and ease of transaction,” Philippine Institute for Development Studies Senior Research Fellow John Paolo R. Rivera said in a Viber message.

Mr. Rivera warned that privatization should not be pursued solely to generate revenues, but to improve efficiency, reduce fiscal risks, and deliver improved public services.

“If an asset is well-managed or strategic to national interest, NG (National Government) should retain control. But if underperforming or commercially viable in private hands, privatization, done right, can help fund infrastructure, social programs, and debt reduction without raising new taxes,” Mr. Rivera added.

Jonathan L. Ravelas, a senior adviser at Reyes Tacandong & Co., said the privatization target is “ambitious but doable.”

“The CBK sale was a strong start, and the pipeline is deep,” Mr. Ravelas said in a Viber message on Monday.

He also suggested that after the CBK, the government can work on the privatization of the Agus-Pulangi hydropower complex in Mindanao. — Aubrey Rose A. Inosante, Reporter

Konektadong Pinoy bill lapses into law

Konektadong Pinoy bill lapses into law

The Konektadong Pinoy bill, which aims to increase internet access by relaxing regulations and allowing more entrants into the data transmission industry, has lapsed into law on Sunday.

“It has lapsed into a law,” Department of Information and Communications Technology (DICT) Secretary Henry Rhoel R. Aguda told BusinessWorld on Sunday.

This was also confirmed by Presidential Communications Undersecretary Claire A. Castro in a Viber message, without giving details.

Mr. Aguda said the DICT is now working on the implementing rules and regulations (IRR) of the Konektadong Pinoy Act, also known as the Open Access in Data Transmission Act.

He said the DICT has invited the country’s major telecommunication companies for their inputs.

“We are finalizing the draft IRR. It will be finalized until the public consultation. I have extended personal invitations to PLDT, Globe, Converge, and DITO that they are welcome to participate in the IRR,” Mr. Aguda said.

He said the final IRR is expected to be released within 60 days.

The Konektadong Pinoy Act adopts an open-access policy to create a more accessible and competitive environment for all qualified participants across the entire data transmission network, while also encouraging investments in digital infrastructure to support reliable and affordable data services.

“We welcome the passage of the Konektadong Pinoy. We hope this measure paves the way for more efficient, stable, and affordable internet service across the Philippines,” Ronald B. Gustilo, a national campaigner for Digital Pinoys group, said in a Viber message.

The law is expected to entice more players to enter the industry, Mr. Gustilo said, adding that this should encourage fairer competition and should improve customer experience.

“We also urge the drafters of the implementing rules and regulations to introduce clear safeguards that will protect consumers and ensure these are effectively mapped out,” Mr. Gustilo said.

Telecommunications companies through the Philippine Chamber of Telecommunications Operators (PCTO) have previously asked President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. to veto the measure and have it returned to the Congress.

PCTO has said that provisions of the Konektadong Pinoy Act could undermine regulatory oversight and pose risks to national security and threaten fair competition.

“There may be cyberthreats that will arise from this new telco order, but these can be mitigated by a proactive IRR, crafted by various sectors, and constant monitoring by the regulators of this critical information infrastructure ecosystem,” Samuel V. Jacoba,  founding president of the National Association of Data Protection Officers, said via Viber.

Under the law, new data transmission entrants are no longer required to secure a legislative franchise or a certificate of public convenience and necessity, which the PCTO described as the key filter historically used to assess legal, financial, technical, and cybersecurity readiness.

In particular, the PCTO is objecting to the measure as it only mandates entrants to secure cybersecurity certification after two years of operations.

PLDT Inc. Chief Legal Counsel Joan de Venecia-Fabul said that the company is exploring all options to ensure that there is a level playing field for current players once Konektadong Pinoy is enforced.

She said that while the IRR will not resolve issues raised by PLDT, the company is still willing to participate in the crafting of the Konektadong Pinoy’s IRR.

“An IRR cannot go against the law. It can expound the law, it can clarify the law. It can give contours and boundaries to the law, but it cannot go against it,” Ms. De Venecia-Fabul told reporters last week.

PLDT Senior Legal Advisor to the Chairman  Marilyn A. Victorio-Aquino has said previously that the company will mount a court challenge if the Konektadong Pinoy bill becomes a law.

Aside from PLDT, fiber internet provider Converge ICT Solutions, Inc. also said that it is willing to provide its inputs in the crafting of the IRR.

US Cloud and mobile technology company CloudMosa said that the whole telecommunications industry is set to benefit from the Konektadong Pinoy Act as the law presents opportunities for companies to address users who missed the migration to fourth-generation (4G) technology.

It said that it will help fast-track the phaseout of 2G and 3G, thereby providing a boost to affordable connectivity.

Konektadong Pinoy Act also raises the prospect of more optimal use of the radio frequency spectrum and the reallocation of underutilized and unutilized spectrum.

Hastings Holdings, Inc., a unit of the PLDT Beneficial Trust Fund subsidiary MediaQuest Holdings, Inc., holds a majority stake in BusinessWorld through the Philippine Star Group, which it controls. — Ashley Erika O. Jose, Reporter

Infrastructure spending rebounds in June

Infrastructure spending rebounds in June

State spending on infrastructure bounced back in June, as disbursements for public works projects resumed after the election ban was lifted in early May, the Department of Budget and Management (DBM) said.

In its latest disbursement report on Thursday, the DBM reported that expenditure on infrastructure and other capital outlays increased by 6.5% to PHP 148.8 billion in June from PHP 139.7 billion in the same month last year.

Month on month, it increased by 20.2% from PHP 123.8 billion.

This came after the month of May saw an annual 9.2% decline.

“This was largely attributed to the recovery of DPWH’s (Department of Public Works and Highways) spending performance following a two-month decline in April and May amid the election ban,” it said.

The Commission on Elections’ 45-day ban on public works spending started on March 28 and ended with the May 12 elections.

In June, the DPWH resumed payments for mobilization fees as well as made progress payments for newly awarded projects. It also settled outstanding obligations from previous years.

However, the DBM noted the pace of infrastructure spending was tempered by base effects from substantial releases for the Department of National Defense’s Revised Armed Forces of the Philippines Modernization Program in June last year.

The Philippines has been ramping up its military capacity under the USD 35-billion military modernization program since 2012 in response to rising tensions in the South China Sea.

The DBM said big-ticket releases for infrastructure are expected in the second half of the year.

Budget Secretary Amenah F. Pangandaman earlier explained that disbursements are expected to pick up toward the latter part of May to June after the 45-day election ban is lifted.

Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said that increased infrastructure spending is crucial for economic growth.

“(This will translate to) more inclusive economic growth and development, as better infrastructure boosts the economy’s productivity, as well as help attract more foreign tourists and more foreign investments/locators,” Mr. Ricafort said in a Viber message on Thursday.

For the first half of 2025, overall infrastructure and capital outlays disbursements inched up by 1.4% to PHP 620.2 billion from P611.8 billion in the same period last year.

This was 0.1% or PHP 800 million below the PHP 621-billion program for the first semester.

“Although infrastructure expenditures posted a notable 20.8% (PHP 45-billion) annual growth in first quarter this year, it contracted by 9.3% (PHP 36.6 billion) in second quarter amid the election-related prohibition on public spending covering the entire month of April up to the first two weeks of May,” the DBM said.

Meanwhile, overall infrastructure disbursements, which include infrastructure components of subsidy or equity to government corporations and transfers to local government units, were flat at PHP 720.3 billion in the January-to-June period from PHP 720.5 billion a year ago.

It also exceeded the overall infrastructure spending program of PHP 718-billion for the first half by 0.3%.

The DBM said growth in infrastructure transfers to local government units, particularly their development fund equivalent to 20% of the National Tax Allotment, was offset by lower National Government-implemented infrastructure activities and reduced subsidies to state agencies like the National Irrigation Administration (NIA).

Subsidies provided to state-run firms stood at PHP 7.45 billion in June, 26.68% down from PHP 10.16 billion a year earlier.

Budgetary support to the NIA plunged by 68.21% in June to PHP 2.39 billion from PHP 7.52 billion in the same period in 2024.

“Nevertheless, the total infrastructure spending for the first semester was registered at 5.3% of GDP (gross domestic product), in line with the 5.3% full-year target for this year,” it added.

Based on the 2026 Budget of Expenditures and Sources, the government set its full-year infrastructure spending program at PHP 1.51 trillion, equivalent to 5.3% of the GDP.

In the following months, the DBM said line agencies are expected to ramp up requests for release of allotments for their programs, activities, and projects in the second semester as implementation activities normalize post-election ban.

“These may also include unutilized cash allocations from the second quarter that line agencies can still request this second semester so they can process payments and make disbursements to suppliers or contractors for completed and delivered goods or rendered services,” it said.

Among the anticipated spending drivers for the succeeding months are progress billings from multiple finished or partially completed road and transport infrastructure projects and releases for defense modernization program.

“Increased infrastructure spending at around 5%-6% of GDP for the coming years, as also seen in recent years, would still lead to sustained growth in infrastructure spending,” Mr. Ricafort said. — Aubrey Rose A. Inosante

Japanese credit rater affirms Philippines’ A- rating

Japanese credit rater affirms Philippines’ A- rating

Japanese credit watchdog Rating and Investment Information, Inc. (R&I) affirmed the Philippines’ investment-grade “A-” rating with a stable outlook, citing its steady economic growth.

“The Philippines is expected to realize stable economic growth as well as higher income level against the backdrop of robust public and private investments, development of domestic business such as information technology and business process management (IT-BPM) industry, and population growth, among other factors,” R&I said in a statement on Wednesday.

R&I said the Philippines remains one of the fastest-growing economies in Southeast Asia.

For the first half, Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) growth averaged 5.4%, slower than the 6.2% a year ago. This was slightly below the government’s 5.5% to 6.5% growth target range for this year.

“The fiscal balance as a share of GDP has also improved, while government debt ratio will likely start falling in a year or two. The levels of current account deficit and external debts are manageable, hence there is limited concern on the external front,” R&I said, adding the banking sector remains “stable.”

“Based on this recognition, R&I has affirmed the Foreign Currency Issuer Rating at A-,” it said.

In August 2024, R&I upgraded the Philippines’ rating to an “A-” from “BBB+.” The outlook was revised to “stable” from “positive” previously.

According to R&I, a positive or negative outlook is not a statement indicating a future change of rating. If neither a positive nor a negative outlook is appropriate, it assigns a stable outlook.

The credit rater said Philippine economic growth will be driven by infrastructure projects by the government and private sector, as well as expansion by IT-BPM and electronics manufacturing firms.

“As for 2025, the general outlook is that public and private investments will continue to increase with the growth trend of private consumption remaining in place,” it said.

Consumption is expected to get a boost as inflation fell to a near six-year low of 0.9% in July. The July inflation rate was the lowest in nearly six years or since the 0.6% print posted in October 2019.

For the first seven months of the year, inflation averaged 1.7%, a tad higher than the BSP’s 1.6% full-year forecast.

Limited tariff impact 


Meanwhile, the Philippine economy will likely see “limited” impact from the higher US tariffs.

“R&I believes that the impact of reciprocal tariffs imposed by the US is estimated to be limited. This is because the tariff rate is kept low at 19% and the proportion of exports to the US in the overall economy is small,” it said.

The US began imposing a 19% tariff on Philippine goods entering the US starting on Aug. 7. The US is one of the top destinations for Philippine-made goods.

“R&I believes that the present level of current account deficit does not necessarily have negative implications in the assessment of creditworthiness, given its potential as basis of future economic growth,” it said.

Data from the central bank showed the current account deficit widened to -3.7% of GDP in the first quarter, versus -1.9% in the same period in 2024. The BSP expects the current account deficit to be -3.3% this year, and -2.5% in 2026.

R&I said the Philippines has a sufficient level of foreign exchange reserves in comparison with imports.

“In terms of international investment position, debts exceed financial assets but net debt hovers at a low level in comparison with GDP. R&I believes that external risk is small in light of these points,” it said.

At the same time, R&I said it expects the Philippines’ fiscal deficit to continue declining in line with the government’s plan.

“R&I believes that government debt ratio will remain within manageable level with the progress in reducing fiscal deficits,” it added.

Government data showed the Philippines’ debt-to-GDP ratio had risen to 63.1% as of end-June, its highest level since 2005. The figure remains above the 60% threshold that multilateral lenders view as manageable for developing economies. The debt ratio is expected to ease to 61.3% by yearend.

The BSP welcomed R&I’s affirmation of the investment grade rating as it reflects the country’s “robust growth, low inflation and strong external position.”

“The low inflation environment is thanks to the agile and evidence-based monetary policy. This environment supports an investment climate that is conducive to economic growth,” BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. said.

In a separate statement, Finance Secretary Ralph G. Recto said the rating would help attract more investments, create jobs and boost incomes for Filipinos.

“This is a victory that every Filipino should celebrate,” Mr. Recto said in Filipino. “Because this means that credit rating agencies and investors continue to have strong confidence in us. This will attract more investments, create more quality jobs, increase incomes, and lift more Filipinos out of poverty.”

Meanwhile, Union Bank of the Philippines’ Chief Economist Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion said the investment grade rating boosts investor confidence and improves the country’s access to funding.

“The affirmation by R&I reflects confidence in the country’s policy direction, low inflation environment, and stable banking sector,” Mr. Asuncion said in a Viber message. “This supports investor sentiment and enhances the Philippines’ ability to access funding at favorable terms.”

The Philippines currently holds investment grade ratings with the three major debt watchers. Fitch Ratings rates the country at “BBB,” Moody’s Ratings at “Baa2,” and S&P Global Ratings at “BBB+.” — Katherine K. Chan

Budget chief sees 6% GDP growth in second half

Budget chief sees 6% GDP growth in second half

Philippine economic growth seen to pick in the second semester, amid an expected rebound in government spending following the election-tied ban, Budget Secretary Amenah F. Pangandaman said.

“Hopefully. I think it’s 6% [in the second semester],” Ms. Pangandaman told reporters on the sidelines of a Department of Budget and Management (DBM) event on Wednesday.

This forecast depends on the pace of public expenditures after the election ban on public works, she said. The 45-day ban started on March 28 and ended with the May 12 elections.

“Our first semester performance is just hitting the low-end of this program, so we must be growing 6% or higher in the second half,” Budget Assistant Secretary Romeo Matthew T. Balanquit told BusinessWorld.

The gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 5.5% in the second quarter, slightly faster than the 5.4% print in the first quarter but slower than the 6.5% a year ago.

For the first half, GDP growth averaged 5.4%, slower than the 6.2% a year ago.

Economy Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan earlier said GDP must grow by 5.6% for the rest of the year to achieve the low end of the full-year target.

“Better than the 5.5% in the third quarter. Better because we started again. We released the NCA (Notice of Cash Allocation). You can see agencies began procuring again,” Ms. Pangandaman said.

Latest disbursement report from DBM showed government spending increased by 21.2% to PHP 578.2 billion in May. This was a turnaround from the 27.8% annual contraction in April due to the election ban on public works spending.

The budget department has ordered government agencies to submit their “catch-up plans” to bolster spending for the rest of year.

“They are already submitting submissions to direct the programs and the agency projects. But yes, we’ll get their catch-up plans soon and then we’ll release it to the public,” she said.

Asked if she expects revisions to the 5.5% to 6.5% growth outlook this year, Ms. Pangandaman, who chairs the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC), said: “Not yet.”

The second meeting of the economic managers for this year will likely be scheduled in the end of September, she said.

The DBCC revised macroeconomic assumptions in July to reflect a “more measured and resilient outlook amid global headwinds.”

However, Ateneo Center for Economic Research and Development Director Ser Percival K. Peña-Reyes said faster spending alone may not be enough to lift growth beyond 6% for the second half.

“Our forecast is below 6%,” he said in a Viber message, noting external risks such as uncertainty in the US tariffs.

Mr. Trump last month imposed a 19% duty on the Philippines, which took effect on Aug. 7.
The new rate is slightly lower than the 20% the US had threatened to impose, but higher than the 17% tariff announced during the “Liberation Day” in April.

Mr. Peña-Reyes also noted the lower approvals in foreign investment commitments, which plunged by 64.4% to PHP 67.38 billion in the second quarter, down from the revised PHP 189.5 billion in same period last year. – Aubrey Rose A. Inosante

Stocks may rise before Powell speech, BSP meet

Stocks may rise before Powell speech, BSP meet

Philippine shares may rise slightly when the market reopens on Friday as investors reposition before the US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell’s speech at their annual gathering and the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) policy meeting next week, where it is expected to deliver a third straight rate cut.

On Wednesday, the Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) inched up by 0.20 point to close at 6,277.87, while the broader all shares index slipped by 0.07% or 2.76 points to end at 3,735.14. The market was closed on Thursday for the Ninoy Aquino Day holiday.

“There can be muted technical correction ahead of next week due to an oversold market,” First Metro Investment Corp. Head of Research Cristina S. Ulang said in a Viber message.

The PSEi has been moving sideways in the past few days, staying at the 6,200 level due to a lack of fresh catalysts before the US Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole symposium.

Mr. Powell is scheduled to make a speech at the gathering on Friday, which markets will monitor for potential hints of the direction of monetary policy in the world’s largest economy amid expectations of a Fed cut next month, Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said in a Viber message.

The Fed has kept its target rate at the 4.25%-4.5% range since December 2024.

Traders ramped up bets for a September cut following a surprisingly weak payrolls report at the start of this month, and were further encouraged after consumer price data showed limited upward pressure from tariffs, Reuters reported. However, a hotter-than-expected producer price reading last week complicated the policy picture.

Minutes out overnight from the Fed’s July gathering, when policymakers voted to keep rates steady, suggested that Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman and Governor Christopher Waller were alone in pushing for a rate cut.

That led traders to pare back odds to 80% for a quarter-point Fed rate cut on Sept. 17, down from 84% 24 hours earlier. They are currently pricing in a total of 53 basis points of easing over the rest of the year.

Another key catalyst for the market is the BSP’s Aug. 28 policy meeting, where the market expects a third straight 25-basis-point reduction, Mr. Ricafort said.

This would “lower borrowing costs that would help spur more demand for credit and, in turn, spur more economic activities and overall GDP (gross domestic product) growth,” he added.

Mr. Ricafort placed the PSEi’s immediate support at 6,204.04 and immediate major resistance at 6,370.

BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. said last week that a rate cut is “quite likely” at the Monetary Board’s meeting next week.

Mr. Remolona added that they could lower benchmark rates by only two more times for the remainder of the year, including the possible move on Aug. 28, as they expect inflation to stay within the 2-4% target. — R.M.D. Ochave with Reuters

BoP position swings to deficit in July

BoP position swings to deficit in July

The Philippines’ balance of payments (BoP) position swung to a USD 167-million deficit in July as the government paid off external debt, the central bank said on Tuesday.

Preliminary data from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) showed the BoP position stood at a USD 167-million deficit in July, a reversal from the USD 226-million surplus recorded in June and the USD 62-million surplus in July 2024.

Philippines: Balance of Payments (BoP) Position

“The BoP deficit reflected National Government’s (NG) drawdowns on its foreign currency deposits with the BSP to service external debt obligations,” the BSP said in a statement.

For the first seven months, the BoP deficit widened to USD 5.756 billion, marking a reversal from the USD 1.504-billion surplus in the January-July period last year.

BoP refers to the country’s economic transactions with other nations. A surplus indicates more funds entered the country, while a deficit shows that the country spent more than it received.

“Preliminary data indicate that the year-to-date BoP deficit was largely due to the continued trade in goods deficit,” the central bank said.

The Philippines’ balance of trade in goods, or the difference between the values of exports and imports, posted a USD 3.95-billion deficit in June, based on data from the Philippine Statistics Authority.

For the first semester, the trade deficit narrowed to USD 23.97 billion from the USD 25.06-billion deficit a year ago.

“This (BoP deficit) was partly offset by the sustained net inflows from personal remittances from overseas Filipinos, foreign borrowings by the NG, and foreign portfolio investments,” the BSP added.

This comes amid prevailing “global trade uncertainty, heightened geopolitical risks, and weakened investor confidence,” the BSP said.

Earlier this year, the central bank revised its BoP forecasts for 2025 to a USD 6.3-billion deficit and for 2026 to a USD 2.8-billion gap.

“The latest BoP deficit (is) partly due to some payment of foreign currency debts and other foreign obligations (as well as the) continued trade deficit and net imports of the country in recent months,” Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said in an e-mail. “Though (this was) offset by some frontloading of Philippine export sales before Trump’s higher tariffs take effect.”

He also noted that the deficit came “amid the continued Trump risk factor or premium that led to some market volatility worldwide in view of the Aug. 7 deadline for the United States’ trade deals and tariffs.”

John Paolo R. Rivera, a senior research fellow at the Philippine Institute for Development Studies, said the BoP deficit “reflects the growing pressure from trade imbalances and external payments, particularly rising imports, weaker exports, and possibly some debt-related outflows.”

“It is a reminder that global uncertainties and tariff risks continue to weigh on our external sector,” he said via Viber.

“While the National Government and BSP still have tools to stabilize the BoP such as boosting tourism, remittances, and managing capital flows, the outlook remains cautious. Without stronger exports or a more stable Philippine peso, deficits may persist in the near term,” he added.

The BSP expects the overall BoP position to end at a USD 6.3-billion deficit or -1.3% of gross domestic product this year.

GIR decline

Meanwhile, the country’s gross international reserves (GIR) slipped to USD 105.4 billion as of end-July from USD 106 billion at end-June.

“The level of GIR remains an adequate external liquidity buffer, equivalent to 7.2 months’ worth of imports of goods and payments of services and primary income,” the BSP said. “Moreover, it covers about 3.4 times the country’s short-term external debt based on residual maturity.”

GIR comprises foreign-denominated securities, foreign exchange, and other assets such as gold. It enables a country to finance imports and foreign debts, maintain the stability of its currency, and safeguard itself against global economic disruptions.

The central bank expects GIR to settle at USD 104 billion by end-2025. — Katherine K. Chan

 

New taxes ruled out amid record debt

New taxes ruled out amid record debt

The government will not introduce new tax proposals in the 20th Congress, Finance Secretary Ralph G. Recto said, reaffirming the administration’s fiscal consolidation strategy despite record-high debt.

Speaking with reporters after a Development Budget Coordination Committee briefing at the House of Representatives on Monday evening, Mr. Recto said the Marcos administration would instead focus on previously filed measures including an excise tax on single-use plastics and a tax amnesty program.

Asked whether the Department of Finance would back additional tax initiatives, Mr. Recto replied: “No.”

He also said the government was not considering increases in existing tax rates too.

“We only have the single-use plastics remaining, that’s number one,” he said. “Also possibly, a tax amnesty.”

Mr. Recto had earlier stressed that new revenue measures were unnecessary, pointing to what he described in April as the country’s “robust” fiscal position.

Government data showed the Philippines’ debt-to-gross domestic product ratio had risen to 63.1% as of end-June, its highest level since 2005. The figure remains above the 60% threshold that multilateral lenders view as manageable for developing economies.

The debt ratio is expected to ease to 61.3% by yearend, though still above the earlier 60.4% target, according to a Finance department handout.

Outstanding debt stood at a record PHP 17.27 trillion in June, up 2.1% from the previous month and 11.5% higher than a year earlier.

The excise tax on single-use plastic bags was one of the 28 priority bills identified by the Legislative-Executive Development Advisory Council. While it was approved by the House on third reading in 2022, the measure was stuck at the Senate Ways and Means Committee.

The Finance department last year said the government could raise up to PHP 33.8 billion in excise taxes on single-use plastic bags.

Three measures, which all seek to impose a PHP 100-per-kilogram excise tax on single-use plastic bags, have been refiled at the House. A Senate counterpart bill proposes a lower rate of PHP 20 per kilogram.

Mr. Recto in early August said the government is also looking at proposing a tax amnesty that will involve an amnesty charge set at a yet-to-be-determined percentage of the outstanding unpaid tax, in exchange for immunity from civil, criminal and administrative penalties.

Lawmakers in the House and Senate are pushing for a general tax amnesty that will impose a 2% amnesty tax rate dependent on the total assets of taxpayers up to 2024.

The Finance department’s decision to hold off on introducing new taxes is a “good move” given that proposing new levies could dampen household spending, said Reinielle Matt M. Erece, an economist at Oikonomia Advisory and Research, Inc.

“More taxes will effectively reduce disposable income of households since more of their income will be directed to taxes rather than consumption,” he said in a Viber message.

“Fiscal consolidation is important to better manage debt and budget efficiency, but if it comes at the expense of economic performance then it may be best to rethink the strategy to achieve this goal,” he added.

While the proposed excise tax on single-use plastics and tax amnesty could boost state revenues, the government should look at expanding the tax base and ensure that revenue streams are “future-proof,” John Paolo R. Rivera, a senior research fellow at the Philippine Institute for Development Studies, said.

“These should be seen as complementary, not core, measures,” he said in a Viber message. “What we need is better tax administration, improved enforcement and expanded coverage of existing tax measures.”

Mr. Rivera said that if the Finance department reverses its initial stance, then it should look at its impact on Filipino consumers and businesses.

“Any move must be weighed against inflation risks and its impact on consumers and businesses.” — Kenneth Christiane L. Basilio, Reporter

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