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Fundamental View
AS OF 24 Feb 2026Bank Negara Indonesia (BNI) is the fourth largest commercial bank in Indonesia.
The bank is majority-owned by the Indonesian government (60%) and receives strong state support in the form of well-established relationships with SOEs, an area that the bank heavily loans to.
BNI’s asset quality has shown a steady improvement after COVID headwinds in Indonesia, through de-risking its loan portfolio by focusing growth on top tier private corporates. It is now going for balanced loan growth across segments.
Business Description
AS OF 24 Feb 2026- Bank Negara Indonesia was founded in 1946, initially as a central bank, before becoming a commercial bank in 1968. It is now the 4th largest commercial bank in Indonesia by assets.
- The bank is majority-owned by the state (60%) and focuses its lending toward SOEs and domestic corporates.
- BNI's loan book is split 58% corporates, 23% small and medium enterprises and 17% retail, with the remaining coming from its subsidiaries at December 2025.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 24 Feb 2026Macro overhang continues as fiscal concerns over aggressive growth/social agendas and questions over central bank independence persist. Despite a stronger 4Q25/FY25 and a positive medium-term growth narrative under Prabowo’s term, skepticism remains amid soft ground-level activity and signs of a shrinking middle class. Moody’s has shifted the sovereign outlook to negative.
Margin pressure persists. IDR weakness due to macro concerns has constrained system liquidity; relief has been short-lived. Opportunistic BI cuts (when FX pressures ease) and subsidised government programs (e.g., village cooperative loans) to support growth will further compress NIMs.
Governance/transparency risks at Danantara remain, and the transfer of SOE banks (including BNI) increases the risk of higher dividend payouts to fund government priorities. However, we are comfortable with the CET1 ratio dropping to the 14-16% range of other APAC banks.
Retail is under strain, but asset quality has trended better than peers due to a large-corporate tilt. Increased state-directed lending to less commercially viable projects though could pressure credit metrics over time.
Key Metric
AS OF 24 Feb 2026| IDR bn | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPP ROA | 3.35% | 3.42% | 3.32% | 3.10% | 2.75% |
| ROA | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.6% |
| ROE | 9.9% | 15.0% | 15.2% | 14.0% | 12.2% |
| Equity/Assets | 12.07% | 12.32% | 13.61% | 14.14% | 12.44% |
| CET1 Ratio | 17.4% | 17.5% | 20.2% | 18.9% | 18.4% |
| NPL Ratio | 3.70% | 2.81% | 2.14% | 1.97% | 1.94% |
| Provisions/Average Loans | 3.23% | 1.83% | 1.41% | 1.08% | 1.21% |
| LDR | 79.9% | 84.0% | 85.7% | 96.3% | 86.4% |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 06 Feb 2026BNI is the 4th largest bank in Indonesia by assets and is 60% government owned. Asset quality was weaker than Mandiri, but has improved on its pivot to better quality segments since ’21. Funding cost pressure from the tight liquidity environment has eased with recent government stimulus, and loan growth has picked up. Margins though are under pressure from state-subsidized lending programs and rate cuts impacting wholesale lending yields. Soft economic momentum, retail asset quality strains and higher governance risks are also headwinds. Fundamentals however remain sound with a corporates focused book, strong capital and decent profitability. We expect capital ratios to decline, but would be fine with a 14-16% CET1 ratio. We have BNI on U/P due to Indonesia’s macro uncertainty overhang.
Recommendation Reviewed: February 06, 2026
Recommendation Changed: August 04, 2025
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