Data deluge closes out rollercoaster month

Financial market trading in many Asian countries could be choppy on Friday, with investors hoping to close out a remarkable month on a high but facing an economic calendar bursting at the seams with top-tier releases.

Wall Street put in mixed performance on Thursday as investors digested Nvidia’s results from the day before which pushed the Nasdaq into the red, and surprisingly strong US GDP data that helped lift the Dow to a record high.

But the moves in stocks, rates, and yields were modest, and investors in Asia may plow their own furrow on Friday. They will certainly have plenty of potential drivers.

The economic calendar includes second quarter GDP from India, retail sales and industrial production from South Korea, retail sales and private sector credit growth from Australia, current account data from Thailand, and retail sales from Hong Kong.

There is also a data deluge from Japan, which includes retail sales, industrial production, unemployment, and perhaps most important of all, Tokyo inflation figures for August.

On the corporate front, earnings releases from Chinese financial giants Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, CITIC and China Construction Bank are also on tap.

It is worth noting where markets stand going into the last trading day of August. Especially bearing in mind the historic volatility and price swings that battered many markets earlier this month.

Japan’s Nikkei is down around 2% so far this month, the MSCI Asia ex-Japan is up 1.5%, world stocks and the S&P 500 are up more than 1%, the Nasdaq is flat, and China’s blue chip index is down nearly 5%.

The dollar index is down 2.6% and languishing at its weakest level of the year, although it has risen for two days in a row, while the yen is up around 3.7% and China’s yuan is up around 1.5%.

On the data front, annual consumer price inflation in Tokyo is expected to stay unchanged at 2.2% in August, ending three months of acceleration, according to a Reuters poll. Would this suggest the Bank of Japan may not be in such a hurry to raise rates again?

On the other hand, the same poll also found factory output rose and retail sales kept growing in July, underscoring the strength of Japan’s economy after better-than-expected April-June gross domestic product figures earlier this month.

India’s economic growth, meanwhile, likely moderated and grew at its slowest pace in a year in the April-June quarter due to lower government spending amid a national election that concluded in June, a Reuters poll found.

Annual growth likely slowed to 6.9% in the quarter, down from 7.8% in the January-March period, the poll showed. The range of forecasts was wide – from 6.0% to 8.1%.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to Asian markets on Friday:

– Japan – Tokyo inflation (August)

– India – GDP (Q2)

– Australia – retail sales (July)

(Reporting by Jamie McGeever)