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The Gist

A daily dose of market updates to guide your investment decisions.

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September 28, 2026

Today's Report

Your Morning Fix

<p><strong>GLOBAL: US President Donald Trump has rejected a truce proposal from Iran, </strong>which Iranian officials stated could have led to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within seven days.</p>

<p><strong>Market impact: Oil prices advanced while US stock futures declined </strong>following the rejection of Iran's proposal.</p>

<p><strong>President Trump is skeptical that Iran would meet his demands</strong> and expects to renew US bombing campaigns.</p>

<p><strong>LOCAL: The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ business confidence index improved to -10.9% in August </strong>due to higher demand for essential commodities and construction activities.&nbsp;</p>

<p><strong>Market impact: The PSEi advanced on bargain hunting,</strong> <strong>while the peso strengthened</strong> amid an initial correction in global oil prices.</p>

<p><strong>Optimism for the next three months surged, driven by the upcoming holiday season and the rice harvest, </strong>which traditionally spur demand for consumer and financial products.</p>

Chart of the Day

PH businesses less pessimistic in August

Philippine business sentiment turned less pessimistic in August, with the central bank's confidence index improving to -10.9% from -20.3% in July, driven by expected demand for essential goods and construction. Meanwhile, the business confidence index rose sharply for the coming periods. Driven by anticipated holiday demand and easing inflation, the confidence index jumped to 24.6% for the next quarter and reached 36.4% for the year ahead. Source: BSP

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Financial market updates

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USD/PHP declines despite higher dollar and oil

The USD/PHP exchange rate opened 8.5 centavos lower at 62.65 last Friday despite higher dollar and oil prices, with suspected agent selling at the open.

The local pair briefly rose to 62.75 as banks anticipated importer demand, but demand was absent. Instead, sizable government inflows drove the pair lower.

Importer demand emerged at 62.55, but weaker offshore non-deliverable forwards pushed the pair to an intraday low of 62.46.

The USD/PHP pair ultimately closed at 62.465, or 27 centavos lower day-on-day.

USD/PHP's current support levels remain at 62.30/45, while resistance stands at 62.55/70.

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Local GS sees muted flows ahead of the new RTB

Trading in the local government securities (GS) market was quiet last Friday, with only PHP 13.5 billion in volume traded as investors conserved liquidity ahead of this week’s new 2.5-year RTB issuance.

Market activity focused on 4-year FXTN 7-70 and 5-year FXTN 20-17, with two-way interest keeping yields rangebound.

Benchmark yields ended within 3 basis points of previous levels, reflecting limited movement across the curve.

The upcoming RTB is expected to have a smaller offering size as the Bureau of the Treasury remains on track to meet its 2026 borrowing target.

The offer for the new RTB opens on September 29, with coupon-setting bids in the morning and the public offer starting in the afternoon.

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PSEi regains its footing on opportunistic buys

The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) ended 95.95 points lower at 5,825.97 last Friday on bargain hunting in oversold names and renewed foreign buying after weeks of steady outflows.

International Container Terminal Services Inc. (+60.28 points) led the rebound, followed by BDO Unibank Inc. (+10.60 points) and SM Investments Corp. (+9.53 points).

Meanwhile, Ayala Corp. (-4.23 points), RL Commercial REIT Inc. (-1.38 points), and Manila Electric Co. (-1.37 points) dragged on the index.

Market breadth improved decisively with 106 advancers versus 70 decliners, while foreign investors posted PHP 2.85 billion in net buying, a sharp reversal from the persistent selling over the past weeks.

Easing oil concerns and the return of foreign demand were enough to push the market back above 5,800, although the rebound remains largely a recovery from the recent selloff.

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