Quarterly Economic Growth Release: More BSP cuts to come
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Monthly Economic Update: Fed catches up
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Inflation Update: Steady and mellow
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The Gist
A daily dose of market updates and smart investment strategies to guide your portfolio decisions
Today's Report
Your Morning Fix
- Philippine banks’ combined net income rose 3.57% year-on-year to PHP 300.418 billion in the first nine months of 2025, preliminary central bank data showed.
- The Department of Agriculture (DA) replaced country-wide bans on pork imports with regionalization rules to allow pork entry from areas without African Swine Fever.
- In a 60-40 vote, the US Senate approved a compromise to immediately end the current US government shutdown.
- China’s central bank said it would sustain an “appropriately loose” monetary stance, ensuring ample liquidity, stable prices, and reduced financing costs to support the economy.
- The ADP employment report showed that firms were still cutting over 11,000 jobs weekly through late October despite payrolls growing by 42,000 in the previous weeks.
Our Portfolio Recommendation
Our peso portfolio is tilted slightly toward fixed income. While local inflation remains low and monetary easing is likely to continue, yields may be pushed higher by upcoming bond auctions. Continued rate cuts and rising consumer strength are also favorable for local equities, especially real estate and retail. The dollar portfolio is the reverse, with slightly lower fixed income owing to the uncertainty of the effects of tariffs on inflation. US Federal Reserve rate cuts are also closely watched. We remain positive on global equities, with a preference for US sectors, particularly technology, communication services, and financials.
| 2025 Metrobank Forecast | 2026 Metrobank Forecast | 2027 Metrobank Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.0% |
| Inflation | 1.8% | 3.3% | 3.0% |
| BSP Target Reverse Repurchase Rate | 4.50% | 4.00% | 4.00% |
| Federal Funds Rate | 3.75% | 2.75% | 2.75% |
| USD/PHP | 57.9 | 56.9 | 56.7 |
CHART OF THE DAY
Chart of the Day
Gold gains as US government shutdown potentially nears end
Gold prices hit a near three-week high on Tuesday, bolstered by expectations that a potential end to the US government shutdown and resumption of economic data could set the stage for the US Federal Reserve to trim interest rates next month. Gold, traditionally considered a safe haven, also tends to benefit in low-interest rate environments as it is a non-yielding asset. The US Senate on Monday approved a compromise that would end the longest government shutdown on record. The shutdown has triggered a data blackout, leaving policymakers and markets without key indicators on jobs and inflation. Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg
Featured Reports
More Reads
USD/PHP rises softly amid late buying interest
- The USD/PHP exchange rate opened unchanged at 58.96 on Tuesday, with the dollar relatively stable at the start.
- The morning saw initial buying interest for the peso amid suspected supply and bond inflows, as offshore players joined the buying rally in local government securities.
- Despite this, the local pair only reached lows of 58.865, with importer demand emerging at this level and pushing the pair higher.
- The USD/PHP exchange rate ultimately closed at 58.985, or 2.5 centavos higher lower day-on-day.
- The current support levels of USD/PHP are 58.70/80, while the resistance levels are 59.20/30
READ MORE
Local yields drop amid strong buying momentum
- The local government securities (GS) market opened strong on Tuesday, with heavy buying interest amid growing confidence in further rate cuts.
- The 3- to 6-year sector outperformed, with Fixed Rate Treasury Notes 7-64, 7-70, and 20-17 closing at 5.300%, 5.490%, and 5.575%, respectively.
- The 10-year benchmark also rallied, closing 4 basis points (bps) lower at 5.800%.
- Profit-taking emerged late in the session, but yields still ended at new year-to-date lows, down 3 to 8 basis points day-on-day.
- Trading was active across the curve, totaling PHP 146.36 billion—one of the highest daily volumes recently.
READ MORE
PSEi extends its decline amid cautious investors
- The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) ended 73.57 points lower at 5,629.07 on Tuesday, its lowest close since May 2020, as investors stayed cautious amid lingering local growth concerns.
- Selling was broad-based, led by Financials (-3.0%) and Property (-2.06%), while Services (+1.23%) was the lone gainer.
- Among the index names, DigiPlus Interactive Corp. (+7.65%), PLDT Inc. (+4.65%), San Miguel Corp. (+2.88%), LT Group Inc. (+2.13%), and Manila Electric Co. (+1.36%) were the top gainers.
- Meanwhile, Universal Robina Corp. (-6.64%), JG Summit Holdings Inc. (-4.95%), BDO Unibank Inc. (-4.80%), Alliance Global Group Inc. (-4.39%), and SM Prime Holdings Inc. (-4.22%) were the index laggards.
- The index opened slightly firmer but reversed early on, ending near the session’s low. Trading was active at PHP 7.09 billion, with foreigners as net buyers amounting to PHP 702.02 million for a sixth straight day.
READ MORE
USD/PHP rises softly amid late buying interest
- The USD/PHP exchange rate opened unchanged at 58.96 on Tuesday, with the dollar relatively stable at the start.
- The morning saw initial buying interest for the peso amid suspected supply and bond inflows, as offshore players joined the buying rally in local government securities.
- Despite this, the local pair only reached lows of 58.865, with importer demand emerging at this level and pushing the pair higher.
- The USD/PHP exchange rate ultimately closed at 58.985, or 2.5 centavos higher lower day-on-day.
- The current support levels of USD/PHP are 58.70/80, while the resistance levels are 59.20/30
READ MORE
Local yields drop amid strong buying momentum
- The local government securities (GS) market opened strong on Tuesday, with heavy buying interest amid growing confidence in further rate cuts.
- The 3- to 6-year sector outperformed, with Fixed Rate Treasury Notes 7-64, 7-70, and 20-17 closing at 5.300%, 5.490%, and 5.575%, respectively.
- The 10-year benchmark also rallied, closing 4 basis points (bps) lower at 5.800%.
- Profit-taking emerged late in the session, but yields still ended at new year-to-date lows, down 3 to 8 basis points day-on-day.
- Trading was active across the curve, totaling PHP 146.36 billion—one of the highest daily volumes recently.
READ MORE
PSEi extends its decline amid cautious investors
- The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) ended 73.57 points lower at 5,629.07 on Tuesday, its lowest close since May 2020, as investors stayed cautious amid lingering local growth concerns.
- Selling was broad-based, led by Financials (-3.0%) and Property (-2.06%), while Services (+1.23%) was the lone gainer.
- Among the index names, DigiPlus Interactive Corp. (+7.65%), PLDT Inc. (+4.65%), San Miguel Corp. (+2.88%), LT Group Inc. (+2.13%), and Manila Electric Co. (+1.36%) were the top gainers.
- Meanwhile, Universal Robina Corp. (-6.64%), JG Summit Holdings Inc. (-4.95%), BDO Unibank Inc. (-4.80%), Alliance Global Group Inc. (-4.39%), and SM Prime Holdings Inc. (-4.22%) were the index laggards.
- The index opened slightly firmer but reversed early on, ending near the session’s low. Trading was active at PHP 7.09 billion, with foreigners as net buyers amounting to PHP 702.02 million for a sixth straight day.
READ MORE