Philippines Trade Update: Trade trajectories trend along
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Policy Rate Updates: Double cut finale
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Monthly Economic Update: One for the road
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The Gist
A daily dose of market updates and smart investment strategies to guide your portfolio decisions
Today's Report
Your Morning Fix
- Philippine semiconductor and electronics exports are seen climbing by double digits in 2025 to USD 48 billion, surpassing 2024 levels and approaching that of 2023, according to an industry group.
- Philippine lawmakers have approved the bicameral committee report on the PHP 6.793-trillion 2026 national budget, with final ratification expected Monday.
- Philippine infrastructure spending plunged for the fourth consecutive month in October, dropping 40.1% year-on-year to PHP 65.9 billion, as disbursements weakened amid corruption concerns and bad weather.
- Wall Street finished Friday’s thin post-Christmas trading little changed, as all three major indexes slipped slightly to end a five-day rally but still secured weekly gains.
- Silver surged past USD 77 on Friday, while gold and platinum reached record highs after expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate cut and geopolitical tensions drove safe-have demand.
Our Portfolio Recommendation
Our peso portfolio is tilted slightly toward fixed income. While local inflation remains low and monetary easing is likely to continue, yields may be pushed higher by upcoming bond auctions. Continued rate cuts and rising consumer strength are also favorable for local equities, especially real estate and retail. The dollar portfolio is the reverse, with slightly lower fixed income owing to the uncertainty of the effects of tariffs on inflation. US Federal Reserve rate cuts are also closely watched. We remain positive on global equities, with a preference for US sectors, particularly technology, communication services, and financials.
| 2025 Metrobank Forecast | 2026 Metrobank Forecast | 2027 Metrobank Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.0% |
| Inflation | 1.8% | 3.3% | 3.0% |
| BSP Target Reverse Repurchase Rate | 4.50% | 4.00% | 4.00% |
| Federal Funds Rate | 3.75% | 2.75% | 2.75% |
| USD/PHP | 59.0 | 60.8 | 58.9 |
CHART OF THE DAY
Chart of the Day
Oil declines on glut concerns
Oil prices settled over 2% lower on Friday, as investors weighed a potential oversupply while looking out for a peace deal ahead of talks between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and US President Donald Trump. Oil prices are on track for their deepest annual drop since 2020, even as supply disruptions provided support in recent sessions. Brent and WTI are down 19% and 21% compared to last year’s close, respectively, as increasing output sparked views of a glut heading into next year. Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg
Featured Reports
More Reads
USD/PHP dips as demand for dollar slowed down
- The USD/PHP exchange rate opened 10 centavos lower at 58.75 last Friday, but was easily supported by decent fixing and corporate demand.
- The pair traded within the tight 58.80-83 range for most of the day as it reached a day’s high of 58.84.
- As demand waned toward the end of the day, the local pair slowly quickly slid from above 58.80 to a day’s low of 58.71.
- The USD/PHP exchange rate closed at 58.71, or 14 centavos lower day-on-day.
- The current support levels of USD/PHP are 58.50/60, while the resistance levels are 58.80/9
READ MORE
Local GS sees muted trading amid the holidays
- The local government securities (GS) market saw muted activity last Friday, as many participants were away for the holidays.
- Some selling interest emerged in the 5- to 10-year space, as dealers continued to digest the recent borrowing schedule announcement.
- Institutional clients engaged in year-end rebalancing, with interest spread across the curve, while retail demand stayed focused on short-dated bonds.
- Most benchmark bonds closed 5 to 8 basis points (bps) higher, except for Fixed Rate Treasury Note 10-73, which ended 3.5 bps lower at 6.000%.
- At current levels, we expect activity to remain subdued this week, and supply skewed to the 5- to 25-year sector.
READ MORE
PSEi recovers softly due to selective buying
- The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) ended 23.73 higher at 6,065.64 last Friday, despite thin trading activity after the Christmas holiday as selective buying supported the market.
- Foreigners were net sellers of PHP 43.47 million, with local support helping steady the session.
- Aboitiz Equity Ventures Inc. (+3.58%), SM Prime Holdings Inc. (+2.61%), and Converge Information & Communications Technology Solutions Inc. (+2.19%) were the top performers.
- Meanwhile, DigiPlus Interactive Corp. (-4.53%), San Miguel Corp. (-2.44%), and Puregold Price Club Inc. (-2.36%) led the drag on the index.
- Market sentiment stayed positive, reflecting cautious positioning ahead of year-end, even as most regional peers slipped.
READ MORE
USD/PHP dips as demand for dollar slowed down
- The USD/PHP exchange rate opened 10 centavos lower at 58.75 last Friday, but was easily supported by decent fixing and corporate demand.
- The pair traded within the tight 58.80-83 range for most of the day as it reached a day’s high of 58.84.
- As demand waned toward the end of the day, the local pair slowly quickly slid from above 58.80 to a day’s low of 58.71.
- The USD/PHP exchange rate closed at 58.71, or 14 centavos lower day-on-day.
- The current support levels of USD/PHP are 58.50/60, while the resistance levels are 58.80/9
READ MORE
Local GS sees muted trading amid the holidays
- The local government securities (GS) market saw muted activity last Friday, as many participants were away for the holidays.
- Some selling interest emerged in the 5- to 10-year space, as dealers continued to digest the recent borrowing schedule announcement.
- Institutional clients engaged in year-end rebalancing, with interest spread across the curve, while retail demand stayed focused on short-dated bonds.
- Most benchmark bonds closed 5 to 8 basis points (bps) higher, except for Fixed Rate Treasury Note 10-73, which ended 3.5 bps lower at 6.000%.
- At current levels, we expect activity to remain subdued this week, and supply skewed to the 5- to 25-year sector.
READ MORE
PSEi recovers softly due to selective buying
- The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) ended 23.73 higher at 6,065.64 last Friday, despite thin trading activity after the Christmas holiday as selective buying supported the market.
- Foreigners were net sellers of PHP 43.47 million, with local support helping steady the session.
- Aboitiz Equity Ventures Inc. (+3.58%), SM Prime Holdings Inc. (+2.61%), and Converge Information & Communications Technology Solutions Inc. (+2.19%) were the top performers.
- Meanwhile, DigiPlus Interactive Corp. (-4.53%), San Miguel Corp. (-2.44%), and Puregold Price Club Inc. (-2.36%) led the drag on the index.
- Market sentiment stayed positive, reflecting cautious positioning ahead of year-end, even as most regional peers slipped.
READ MORE