INSIGHTS 
INVESTMENT STRATEGY
THE BASICS
DOWNLOADS
DOWNLOAD
DOWNLOAD
DOWNLOAD
View all Reports
Inflation Update: Weak demand softens shocks
DOWNLOAD
Economic Updates
Monthly Economic Update: Fed cuts incoming
DOWNLOAD
Consensus Pricing
Consensus Pricing – June 2025
DOWNLOAD
Follow us on our platforms.
TOP SEARCHES
July
21
The Gist
A daily dose of market updates and smart investment strategies to guide your portfolio decisions
Today's Report
Your Morning Fix
- The Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR) said it is on track to meet its PHP 3.2-trillion tax collection target for 2025, having collected over PHP 1.5 trillion in the first six months of the year.
- Yields on the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) short-term securities decreased on Friday due to robust demand. Bids totaled PHP 153.359 billion against a PHP 100-billion offer.
- The Philippines’ external debt service burden increased by 1.3% to USD 4.91 billion at end-April, primarily due to higher amortization payments on foreign loans.
- Finance Secretary Ralph Recto said the Philippines is considering reducing duties on specific imports from the US to zero as part of ongoing tariff negotiations with Washington.
- Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee said on Friday that ongoing tariff increases complicate the assessment of inflation’s trajectory, making it harder to determine if and when interest rate cuts would be appropriate.
Our Portfolio Recommendation
Our peso portfolio is tilted slightly toward fixed income. While local inflation remains low and monetary easing is likely to continue, yields may be pushed higher by upcoming bond auctions. Continued rate cuts and rising consumer strength are also favorable for local equities, especially real estate and retail. The dollar portfolio is the reverse, with slightly lower fixed income owing to the uncertainty of the effects of tariffs on inflation. US Federal Reserve rate cuts are also closely watched. We remain positive on global equities, with a preference for US sectors, particularly technology, communication services, and financials.
| 2025 Metrobank Forecast | 2026 Metrobank Forecast | 2027 Metrobank Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.0% |
| Inflation | 2.0% | 3.7% | 3.0% |
| BSP Target Reverse Repurchase Rate | 4.75% | 4.25% | 4.25% |
| Federal Funds Rate | 4.00% | 3.50% | 6.50% |
| USD/PHP | 56.1 | 55.7 | 55.3 |
CHART OF THE DAY
Chart of the Day
Philippines posts BOP surplus
The Philippines’ balance of payments swung to a USD 226 million surplus from a deficit in the same period last year, driven by government foreign currency deposits and Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas investments. The surplus helped reduce the country’s overall year-to-date deficit to USD 5.6 billion from USD 5.8 billion in May. Sources: BSP, Bloomberg
Featured Reports
More Reads
USD/PHP closes lower amid local supply
- The USD/PHP exchange rate opened 4 centavos lower at 57.25 last Friday, following a slight retracement for the dollar overnight.
- The local pair dropped to eventual lows of 57.065, before importer demand allowed for a recovery back above the 57.10 support.
- The afternoon saw two-way interest, with dealer-driven demand being met by suspected local supply.
- The USD/PHP exchange rate ultimately closed at 57.145 or 14.5 centavos lower day-on-day.
- The current support levels of USD/PHP are 56.90/57.00 while the resistance levels are 57.25/35.
READ MORE
Local GS sees muted activity despite upcoming RTB
- The local government securities (GS) market saw subdued activity last Friday despite Bloomberg confirming an upcoming Retail Treasury Bond (RTB) issuance, with trading volume at PHP 21 billion—the lowest for the month.
- Benchmark bonds RTB 5-18, and Fixed Rate Treasury Notes (FXTN) 10-69 and 10-73 closed near unchanged at 5.890%, 6.125%, and 6.285%.
- FXTN 5-77 outperformed, falling to 5.530%, as investors accumulated short-term picks, likely for RTB bond exchange purposes.
- Global factors, including the steady performance of US Treasuries, continue to help cap local yield pressures.
- This week’s 3-year reissuance of FXTN 7-64 is expected to be well-received despite falling outside the likely RTB tenor, especially given the reduced PHP 20 billion offering size.
READ MORE
PSEi softly recovers amid easing economic concerns
- The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) ended 8.17 points higher at 6,303.72 last Friday, staging a mild recovery as favorable economic data eased concerns over the US economy’s health.
- Sector performance was mixed—Financials (+1.77%), Industrials (+0.67%), and Property (+0.07%) posted gains, while Conglomerates (-0.67%), Mining & Oil (-0.38%), and Services (-0.35%) lagged.
- Leading index gainers included Bloomberry Resorts Corp. (+10.42%), Bank of the Philippine Islands (+2.52%), and Metropolitan Bank and Trust Co. (+2.03%).
- Meanwhile, key laggards were Converge Information and Communications Technology Solutions, Inc. (-4.14%), Alliance Global Group Inc. (-3.04%), and JG Summit Holdings Inc. (-2.06%).
- Local market sentiment was also supported by expectations of a favorable outcome from Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s upcoming July 20–22 meeting with US President Donald Trump.
READ MORE
USD/PHP closes lower amid local supply
- The USD/PHP exchange rate opened 4 centavos lower at 57.25 last Friday, following a slight retracement for the dollar overnight.
- The local pair dropped to eventual lows of 57.065, before importer demand allowed for a recovery back above the 57.10 support.
- The afternoon saw two-way interest, with dealer-driven demand being met by suspected local supply.
- The USD/PHP exchange rate ultimately closed at 57.145 or 14.5 centavos lower day-on-day.
- The current support levels of USD/PHP are 56.90/57.00 while the resistance levels are 57.25/35.
READ MORE
Local GS sees muted activity despite upcoming RTB
- The local government securities (GS) market saw subdued activity last Friday despite Bloomberg confirming an upcoming Retail Treasury Bond (RTB) issuance, with trading volume at PHP 21 billion—the lowest for the month.
- Benchmark bonds RTB 5-18, and Fixed Rate Treasury Notes (FXTN) 10-69 and 10-73 closed near unchanged at 5.890%, 6.125%, and 6.285%.
- FXTN 5-77 outperformed, falling to 5.530%, as investors accumulated short-term picks, likely for RTB bond exchange purposes.
- Global factors, including the steady performance of US Treasuries, continue to help cap local yield pressures.
- This week’s 3-year reissuance of FXTN 7-64 is expected to be well-received despite falling outside the likely RTB tenor, especially given the reduced PHP 20 billion offering size.
READ MORE
PSEi softly recovers amid easing economic concerns
- The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) ended 8.17 points higher at 6,303.72 last Friday, staging a mild recovery as favorable economic data eased concerns over the US economy’s health.
- Sector performance was mixed—Financials (+1.77%), Industrials (+0.67%), and Property (+0.07%) posted gains, while Conglomerates (-0.67%), Mining & Oil (-0.38%), and Services (-0.35%) lagged.
- Leading index gainers included Bloomberry Resorts Corp. (+10.42%), Bank of the Philippine Islands (+2.52%), and Metropolitan Bank and Trust Co. (+2.03%).
- Meanwhile, key laggards were Converge Information and Communications Technology Solutions, Inc. (-4.14%), Alliance Global Group Inc. (-3.04%), and JG Summit Holdings Inc. (-2.06%).
- Local market sentiment was also supported by expectations of a favorable outcome from Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s upcoming July 20–22 meeting with US President Donald Trump.
READ MORE