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The Gist

A daily dose of market updates to guide your investment decisions.

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August 3, 2026

Today's Report

Your Morning Fix

<p><strong>GLOBAL: </strong>US President Donald Trump said he cancelled a large-scale military strike against Iran, following Middle Eastern allies signal that a diplomatic breakthrough was within reach.</p>

<p><strong>Market impact: </strong>Oil prices declined and US stock futures advanced on August 2 amid optimism surrounding US-Iran negotiations. &nbsp;</p>

<p><strong>Negotiations are set to resume Monday. </strong>The proposed framework is expected to include a renewed ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. &nbsp;</p>

<p><strong>LOCAL: </strong>The Philippine economy likely grew 2.8% year-on-year in the second quarter, a BusinessWorld survey showed, amid geopolitical shocks and weak public and private investment.</p>

<p><strong>Market impact: </strong>The PSEi declined last July 31 amid cautious sentiment, while the peso strengthened following US dollar movements. &nbsp;</p>

<p><strong>Metrobank projects subdued second-quarter GDP growth, </strong>as consumption and investment were toned down.</p>

Chart of the Day

BOJ keeps policy rate steady

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) kept its policy rate unchanged at 1.00% in an 8-1 vote on Friday, as it continues to assess the impact of June's rate hike on the economy and inflation. Policymakers remain cautious amid inflation risks, yen weakness, and geopolitical uncertainties, expecting inflation to reach the BOJ's 2% target soon. Sources: Bloomberg, MSN

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Financial market updates

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USD/PHP drops sharply amid heavier supply

The USD/PHP exchange rate opened 9 centavos lower at 61.47 last Friday amid the sharp decline in the global dollar index overnight.

The pair easily fell, as banks managed fixing-related supply, possibly from foreign buying of local bonds.

Corporate demand was present and overwhelmed large remittances. However, this was not enough to stop the pair’s decline, as heavy offshore non-deliverable forwards pushed the pair to the day's low of 61.23.

The USD/PHP pair ultimately closed at 61.24, or 32 centavos lower day-on-day.

The current support levels of USD/PHP remain at 60.85/61.05, while the resistance levels are 61.45/85.

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Local yields end lower on improving demand

Local bond sentiment improved on Friday, as the dollar trended lower, and opportunistic buyers snapped up elevated yields. Overall, most tenors ended the day 5-10 basis points (bps) lower.

Notable buying interest was observed in the 3-Year FXTN 7-68, outperforming the belly of the curve to close 9 bps lower day-on-day. Spillover demand favored the FXTN 7-70 (4Y) and 20-17 (5Y), trading 5-6 bps lower at 7.200%.

This week, focus shifts to the Bureau of the Treasury’s reissuance of the 5-Year FXTN 20-17, with early yield indications in the 7.200%-7.350% range. Absent any significant risk events, healthy participation is expected.

Investors also look to Wednesday’s July Philippine CPI report. The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas projects inflation to settle within the 5.6% -6.6% range following June’s 6.4% print.

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PSEi closes lower amid broad selling flows

The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) ended 69.31 points lower at 6,236.44 last Friday, as month-end flows, rebalancing trades, and heavy offshore selling outweighed a broader rebound in regional peers.

Market breadth remained slightly defensive at 93 decliners versus 88 advancers, as traders locked in gains and reduced risk heading into the weekend.

The decline was driven largely by heavy selling in index heavyweights, led by the International Container Terminal Services Inc. (-29.39 pts), Bank of the Philippine Islands (-11.76 pts) and SM Prime Holdings Inc. (-6.40 pts).

Stock-specific buying in Converge ICT Solutions, Inc. (+2.34 pts), AREIT Inc. (+1.88 pts) and Jollibee Foods Corp. (+1.56 pts) provided some support but was not enough to offset the drag.

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The report above is circulated for general information only. The opinions expressed are solely those of the contributors and are based on prevailing market conditions and public sources that are believed to be reliable. Metrobank and the report contributors/support staff do not make any guarantees or representation as to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of this report.
 

The report may contain confidential or legally privileged material and may not be copied, reshared, redistributed, or published without prior written consent. Opinions or strategies contained in this publication may change without prior notice and should not take the place of professional investment advice or sound judgment on the part of the reader.