Inflation Update: Green light for easing
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December Economic Update: One for them, one for us
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Philippines Trade Update: Trade trajectories trend along
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The Gist
A daily dose of market updates and smart investment strategies to guide your portfolio decisions
Today's Report
Your Morning Fix
- US nonfarm payrolls (NFPs) increased by 50,000 jobs in December after a downwardly revised rise of 56,000 in November. Only 584,000 jobs were added in 2025, averaging about 49,000 positions per month, less than a third of the jobs created in 2024.
- The US unemployment rate edged down to 4.4% in December from 4.5% in the preceding month, settling back after a historic government shutdown.
- The University of Michigan’s US headline consumer-sentiment index rose to 54.0 in January, from 52.9 previously, reflecting a slightly better assessment of current economic conditions, despite high prices and a soft labor market.
- The Philippine Stock Exchange aims to have about four initial public offerings (IPOs) this year, underscoring the cautious pipeline for equity fundraising after listings fell short of expectations last year, according to PSE President and CEO Ramon S. Monzon.
- The one-month securities of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) fetched a lower average rate on Friday as the offer was met with strong demand. The BSP made a full PHP 90-billion award of the one-month papers.
Our Portfolio Recommendation
Our peso portfolio is tilted slightly toward fixed income. While local inflation remains low and monetary easing is likely to continue, yields may be pushed higher by upcoming bond auctions. Continued rate cuts and rising consumer strength are also favorable for local equities, especially real estate and retail. The dollar portfolio is the reverse, with slightly lower fixed income owing to the uncertainty of the effects of tariffs on inflation. US Federal Reserve rate cuts are also closely watched. We remain positive on global equities, with a preference for US sectors, particularly technology, communication services, and financials.
| 2025 Metrobank Forecast | 2026 Metrobank Forecast | 2027 Metrobank Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.0% |
| Inflation | 1.8% | 3.3% | 3.0% |
| BSP Target Reverse Repurchase Rate | 4.50% | 4.00% | 4.00% |
| Federal Funds Rate | 3.75% | 2.75% | 2.75% |
| USD/PHP | 59.0 | 60.8 | 58.9 |
CHART OF THE DAY
Chart of the Day
US nonfarm payrolls log smaller increase in December
US job growth slowed in December, adding 50,000 jobs compared to the 56,000 increase in November. The slowdown was driven by job losses in the construction, retail, and manufacturing sectors. Despite this, the unemployment rate edged down to 4.4%, indicating the labor market is not collapsing but remains in a tight state wherein businesses avoid increased hiring and layoffs amid caution and AI-driven productivity gains. Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters
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USD/PHP closes higher amid stronger dollar
- The USD/PHP exchange rate opened 3 centavos higher at 59.20 last Friday, after the dollar strengthened overnight, ignoring the slightly higher-than-expected US jobless claims print.
- The rise was short-lived as better fixing and offshore supply pushed the pair to a low of 59.07, before settling tightly within 59.08-59.12.
- Higher offshore prices and remittance hedging ahead of the weekend eventually lifted the pair.
- The USD/PHP exchange rate ultimately closed at 59.245, or 7.5 centavos higher.
- The current support levels of USD/PHP are 58.80/59.00, while the resistance levels are 59.35/50
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Sell-off continues in the local GS market
- The local government securities (GS) market saw a quiet trading session last Friday, as the market extended Thursday’s sell-off following the earlier post-auction rally.
- Profit-taking and de-risking ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls release added upward pressure on yields.
- The 3-year Retail Treasury Bond 5-18 and 8-year Fixed Rate Treasury Note (FXTN) 10-72 underperformed, with yields rising by around 8 basis points (bps) each.
- Overall, local yields ended the week flat to about 8 bps higher across the curve.
- Looking ahead, the Bureau of the Treasury is expected to reissue PHP 30 billion of the 5-year FXTN 7-71 this week.
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PSEi ends the week firm with selective tone
- The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) ended 27.47 higher at 6,348.14 last Friday, ending the week on a firm but selective tone.
- Sector performance was mixed, with Services (+1.03%) and Mining & Oil (+0.70%) leading, while Property (-0.55%) and Industrials (-0.17%) lagged on mild profit taking.
- BDO Unibank Inc. (+2.13%), GT Capital Holdings Inc. (+1.76%), and PLDT Inc. (+1.64%) led the gainers.
- Meanwhile, Alliance Global Group Inc. (-3.29%), DigiPlus Interactive Corp. (-2.16%), and Ayala Corp. (-1.81%) weighed on the index.
- The benchmark stock index remained positive throughout and briefly touched an intraday high of 6,367.77, with foreign flows providing steady support of PHP 320.7 million in net inflows
READ MORE
USD/PHP closes higher amid stronger dollar
- The USD/PHP exchange rate opened 3 centavos higher at 59.20 last Friday, after the dollar strengthened overnight, ignoring the slightly higher-than-expected US jobless claims print.
- The rise was short-lived as better fixing and offshore supply pushed the pair to a low of 59.07, before settling tightly within 59.08-59.12.
- Higher offshore prices and remittance hedging ahead of the weekend eventually lifted the pair.
- The USD/PHP exchange rate ultimately closed at 59.245, or 7.5 centavos higher.
- The current support levels of USD/PHP are 58.80/59.00, while the resistance levels are 59.35/50
READ MORE
Sell-off continues in the local GS market
- The local government securities (GS) market saw a quiet trading session last Friday, as the market extended Thursday’s sell-off following the earlier post-auction rally.
- Profit-taking and de-risking ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls release added upward pressure on yields.
- The 3-year Retail Treasury Bond 5-18 and 8-year Fixed Rate Treasury Note (FXTN) 10-72 underperformed, with yields rising by around 8 basis points (bps) each.
- Overall, local yields ended the week flat to about 8 bps higher across the curve.
- Looking ahead, the Bureau of the Treasury is expected to reissue PHP 30 billion of the 5-year FXTN 7-71 this week.
READ MORE
PSEi ends the week firm with selective tone
- The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) ended 27.47 higher at 6,348.14 last Friday, ending the week on a firm but selective tone.
- Sector performance was mixed, with Services (+1.03%) and Mining & Oil (+0.70%) leading, while Property (-0.55%) and Industrials (-0.17%) lagged on mild profit taking.
- BDO Unibank Inc. (+2.13%), GT Capital Holdings Inc. (+1.76%), and PLDT Inc. (+1.64%) led the gainers.
- Meanwhile, Alliance Global Group Inc. (-3.29%), DigiPlus Interactive Corp. (-2.16%), and Ayala Corp. (-1.81%) weighed on the index.
- The benchmark stock index remained positive throughout and briefly touched an intraday high of 6,367.77, with foreign flows providing steady support of PHP 320.7 million in net inflows
READ MORE