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Reliance Industries
- Sector: Manufacturing
- Sub Sector: Diversified Conglomerates
- Country: India
- Region: India
- Bond: RILIN 4.125 25
- Indicative Yield-to-Maturity (YTM): 5.531% (Indicative as of March 2)
- Credit Rating (Moody’s/Standard & Poor’s/Fitch): Baa2 / BBB+ / -M/P
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Fundamental View
AS OF 24 Apr 2024We are comfortable with Reliance’s large diversified scale of operations and dominant presence in various key sectors (refining, petrochemicals, retail and telecom), which allows for earnings resilience.
We believe a lackluster oils-to-chemicals outlook is well mitigated by strong outlooks for telecom, retail, and upstream oil & gas.
Plans to ramp up its renewable energy business could provide the next leg of growth and improve ESG perception.
Reliance incurs significant capex that has weighed on free cash flow generation, though we acknowledge its historically prudent financial management and robust credit metrics that provide ample elbowroom for some credit profile deterioration.
Business Description
AS OF 24 Apr 2024- RIL is an Indian diversified conglomerate engaged in oil & gas refining, marketing, petrochemicals, organized retail, telecom and digital services, amongst others. It is the largest company in India by revenue, profits, exports and market capitalization (INR 20 tn).
- It is the second largest refiner in India and produces petroleum products such as petrol, high-speed diesel (HSD), aviation turbine fuel (ATF), LPG and lubricants.
- It is the largest petrochemicals producer in India, boasting production of ~38 mn tons in FY20. Through its integrated Jamnagar refinery complex, it produces Polymers/Plastics, Elastomers (synthetic rubber) and Polyester products.
- It is the largest retailer in India in terms of revenue. It operates 18.8k stores (as of March 2024) to sell products ranging from consumer electronics, fashion and lifestyle, grocery, petrol retail and telecom and digital services. It launched its online retail channel, 'JioMart', in December 2019.
- Reliance Jio is the largest mobile telecom operator by subscriber base (482 mn as of March 2024) in India and boasts the widest 4G wireless network in the country.
- In 2021, RIL announced investments to the tune of INR 750 bn/ $10 bn (for next 3 years) to build a renewable energy ecosystem which will include 4 giga factories. Set to be located in Gujarat, the factories will produce solar modules, hydrogen, fuel cells and battery grid to store electricity. Long-term goals also include building 100 GW of PV solar plants by 2030.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 24 Apr 2024Reliance’s O2C (oil-to chemicals) margins remain under pressure from high crude oil input costs, amid global growth slowdown concerns.
Reliance incurs significant capex at historically high levels, particularly from continued investments into its O2C, retail, and nascent renewables businesses, upfront payment on telecom spectrum and acquisition of Disney India. This has weighed on its free cash flow generation, though we take comfort in Reliance’s historically prudent financial management and robust credit metrics.
Reliance faces key-person risk; 65-year old Chairman Mukesh Ambani has begun to hand over the reins of the company’s different business divisions to his children.
Key Metric
AS OF 24 Apr 2024| INR bn | FY20 | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt to Book Cap | 43.0% | 24.6% | 24.1% | 28.7% | 27.2% |
| Net Debt to Book Cap | 39.2% | 22.9% | 21.0% | 22.8% | 19.6% |
| Debt/Total Equity | 75.5% | 32.5% | 31.7% | 40.3% | 37.4% |
| Debt/Total Assets | 29.9% | 19.7% | 18.8% | 20.8% | 19.7% |
| Gross Leverage | 3.9x | 3.2x | 2.6x | 2.3x | 2.1x |
| Net Leverage | 3.5x | 3.0x | 2.2x | 1.9x | 1.5x |
| Interest Coverage | 3.2x | 3.1x | 5.7x | 5.0x | 7.0x |
| EBITDA Margin | 14.7% | 16.6% | 15.3% | 16.0% | 17.7% |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 29 May 2024We have a Market perform recommendation on Reliance (RIL). RIL’s bonds trade fairly to closely rated Indian peers Bharti Airtel and BPCL. We like RIL’s large diversified operations and dominant market shares in key sectors (refining, retail and telecom) that allow for earnings resilience. Its growing renewable business could aid ESG investor sentiment too. While we remain aware of RIL’s elevated capex needs could persist over the next 3-5 years, we think the impact is mitigated by RIL’s prudent financial management and healthy credit metrics that provide ample elbowroom for some credit profile deterioration. While key man risk remains a concern, we take comfort in gradually progressing succession plans.
Recommendation Reviewed: May 29, 2024
Recommendation Changed: June 30, 2021
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