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Fundamental View
AS OF 11 Dec 2024Petron’s 9M24 results worsened modestly, but we expect Petron’s credit metrics to improve modestly for FY24 as higher capex is offset by low single digit % EBITDA growth amid lower crude oil input costs.
About two-third of its total revenues are derived from the Philippines and are indexed to Dubai crude prices, which allows for smooth cost pass-throughs and good insulation from crude price volatility.
Free cash flows are typically negative due to inventory fluctuations that outweigh low capex.
Business Description
AS OF 11 Dec 2024- Petron is the largest oil refining and retailing company in the Philippines, and the third largest player in Malaysia. It maintains a 24% market share in the Philippines (followed by Shell and Caltex) and a 20% market share in Malaysia (largest being Petronas), based on total fuel sales volumes.
- Petron has a total refining capacity of 268k barrels/day (bpd) and accounts for about 30% of the Philippines' fuel needs. Its petroleum refining facilities include the Limay Refinery in Bataan, Philippines (capacity of 180k bpd; 67% of total) and the Port Dickson Refinery in Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia (capacity of 88k bpd; remaining 33% of total).
- Petron's refineries process crude oil into a full range of petroleum products including gasoline, diesel, LPG, jet fuel, kerosene and petrochemicals.
- It further markets and retails these fuel products through its fuel service stations located across the Philippines (2,400 outlets) and Malaysia (700 outlets).
- Petron sources its crude oil supplies from third-party suppliers, namely Saudi Aramco, Kuwait Petroleum Corporation and Exxon Mobil, which are bought on the basis of term contracts and in the spot market.
- Petron mainly supplies its petroleum and fuel products to customers in Malaysia and the Philippines (~95% of annual revenue).
- Petron is 68% owned by San Miguel Corporation (SMC), one of the largest and most diversified conglomerates in the Philippines based on total revenues and assets. SMC's CEO, Mr. Ramon Ang, is also Petron's CEO.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 11 Dec 2024Petron cannot fully pass on higher crude oil input costs to customers in Malaysia.
Petron operates in low-margin business (EBITDA margins ~5%) and maintains elevated credit metrics.
Petron is highly dependent on its Limay petroleum refining complex that makes up two-thirds of its total refining capacity (67%). Any events that disrupt the refinery’s operations could adversely affect Petron’s total revenues.
Key Metric
AS OF 11 Dec 2024| PHP bn | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | LTM 9M23 | LTM 9M24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt to Book Cap | 72.3% | 74.0% | 75.1% | 74.3% | 70.8% |
| Net Debt to Book Cap | 63.3% | 65.5% | 68.2% | 67.0% | 59.7% |
| Debt/Total Equity | 261.6% | 284.2% | 301.4% | 288.7% | 242.0% |
| Debt/Total Assets | 71.2% | 70.2% | 67.6% | 64.4% | 63.6% |
| Gross Leverage | 11.2x | 10.9x | 7.1x | 7.2x | 8.0x |
| Net Leverage | 9.8x | 9.7x | 6.5x | 6.5x | 6.8x |
| Interest Coverage | 2.5x | 2.2x | 2.2x | 2.2x | 1.7x |
| EBITDA Margin | 5.9% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.3% |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 11 Dec 2024We maintain our Market perform recommendation on Petron. Petron’s c.Apr-2026 perp trades rightfully tighter than SMC c.Jul-2025 perp, which we see as fair given its Opco structure vs. SMC’s Holdco, its cost pass-through mechanisms, and low capex which more than offset SMC’s larger diversified businesses. Overall, we continue to take comfort in Petron’s resilient credit profile, supported by a good cost-passthrough contractual mix that provides good insulation from crude price volatility. While we expect Petron to incur higher capex YoY, we expect credit metrics to improve modestly in FY24 from slightly higher EBITDA, supported by robust domestic demand and lower oil prices, as well as a further ~PHP 15 bn of preference share issuances.
Recommendation Reviewed: December 11, 2024
Recommendation Changed: January 26, 2022
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