Nissan unveiled their second strategic plan in as many years, with the Re: Nissan Recovery Plan under new CEO Ivan Espinosa focused on sweeping changes to the company’s manufacturing footprint and cost structure. We believe the plan comes with a high degree of execution risk considering execution has been a major organizational weakness in recent years. Lacking in the recovery plan, in our view, was updated details of its hybrid vehicle development and introduction targets, which would address a hole in its product lineup in a fast-growing global segment. While we are hopeful the Re: Nissan Recovery Plan succeeds, and we will be rooting for management to flawlessly execute the plan, we view currently view the plan as a “show me” story until we gain confidence in their ability to execute.

Management provided FY25 guidance for production volumes, retail sales, and consolidated operating profit, noting the guidance excludes tariff impacts. However, it noted its guidance for operating profit, net income, and automotive free cash flow is preliminary owing to uncertainty related to the potential impact of tariffs and additional restructuring costs that are currently being assessed. More broadly, the company is viewing FY25 as a year of transition that will set the stage for achieving positive automotive operating profit and free cash flow by FY26.

The company expects to produce and sell 3% fewer vehicles in FY25 than it did in FY24. The retail sales decline expectation is driven by lower projected sales in China, which management expects to decline by about 18%. Global production volume is expected to decline to 3.0 mn units to manage dealer inventories based on the company’s lower retail sales outlook. The company expects revenue to decrease 1% in FY25 as lower volumes are partially offset by improved sales incentive management and favorable pricing related to new model launches in 2H25.