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Fundamental View
AS OF 09 Oct 2023- CBA has a very strong franchise in Australia; it is the leader in the retail market and is making good progress in challenging NAB in business banking.
- It has been the best managed of the Australian banks for many years and has outperformed peers. It lost some of its luster in the latter part of the 2010’s due to regulatory and compliance lapses amid charges of complacency, but has since improved into a better institution.
- Its capital and liquidity position is robust, whilst asset quality has generally been stable.
Business Description
AS OF 09 Oct 2023- Originally established by the Australian government in 1911, CBA functioned for part of its history as Australia's central bank until the establishment of the Reserve Bank of Australia in 1959. It remained under government ownership until the early 1990s after which it underwent a transformation from a bureaucratic public sector bank into a widely respected commercial organisation.
- Over the past twenty years, CBA has consolidated its position as the leading bank in Australia with a 24-28% share in household deposits and lending, helped by its acquisition during the 2008 crisis of Bank of Western Australia.
- In New Zealand it owns ASB Bank, but otherwise has been selling non-core assets including its life insurance business.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 09 Oct 2023- CBA’s financial health is closely linked to the Australian economy, in particular retail credit quality, mainly housing loans.
- Earnings/NIMs are under pressure from mortgage competition and higher funding costs.
- However, losses on housing loans have been minimal; the low stock on the housing market has led to home prices rising from Mar-23 onwards, contrary to expectations. Rental vacancy rates are particularly low at 1%, providing support to the investment market. Australia’s low unemployment rate in the mid 3%’s has also been a strong support factor for asset quality.
Key Metrics
AS OF 26 Dec 2023AUD mn | Y19 | Y20 | Y21 | Y22 | Y23 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Return on Equity | 12.7% | 10.5% | 11.7% | 12.7% | 14.0% |
Total Revenues Margin | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.2% |
Cost/Income | 46.2% | 45.9% | 47.0% | 46.3% | 43.5% |
APRA CET1 Ratio | 10.7% | 11.6% | 13.1% | 11.5% | 12.2% |
International CET1 Ratio | 16.2% | 17.4% | 19.4% | 18.6% | 19.1% |
APRA Leverage Ratio | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.1% |
Impairment Charge/Avg Loans | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | (0.0%) | 0.1% |
Gross Impaired Loans/Total Loans | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
CreditSights View
AS OF 14 Nov 2023CBA has achieved superior returns through the sound management of risks and costs while maintaining relatively high-profit margins. It has the leading position in mortgages and deposits, and is challenging NAB in business banking. The AUSTRAC penalty in 2018 damaged its reputation and remediation costs impacted earnings for a couple of years. The bank sold a number of its non-bank business and equity investments to simplify, and focus on its core businesses in ANZ. Strong mortgage market competition and higher deposit costs / wholesale funding has capped NIMs despite cash rates increasing. Business banking growth has been stellar and highly profitable. Asset quality is comfortable and capital robust. It is our preferred name amongst the Aussie banks, Tier 2 has more value than snr.
Recommendation Reviewed: November 14, 2023
Recommendation Changed: October 05, 2016