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Fundamental View
AS OF 24 Feb 2026Bank Mandiri (Mandiri) is the largest state-owned bank in Indonesia with 60% government ownership. We therefore expect a very high likelihood of government support in times of need.
Mandiri’s strength had been its large corporate loan portfolio, which has allowed the bank to book lower credit costs compared to its peers in recent years. Mandiri is well capitalised in line with the other Indonesian banks that have relatively high CET1 ratios in the region, though we expect this to be reduced by higher dividend payouts over time.
Business Description
AS OF 24 Feb 2026- Bank Mandiri was established as a result of the mergers of four state-owned banks, Bank Bumi Daya, Bank Dagang Negara, Bank Ekspor Impor Indonesia, and Bank Pembangunan Indonesia, in the late 1990s. The bank was first listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange in 2003.
- The Indonesian government holds a 60% stake in the bank. Foreign investors have a 32% shareholding while domestic investors have another 8%.
- Corporates accounted for 40% of total loans, consumer for 7%, micro & payroll for 10%, SME for 5%, commercial for 17% and subsidiaries 21% at December 2025.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 24 Feb 2026Macro overhang continues as fiscal concerns over aggressive growth/social agendas and questions over central bank independence persist. Despite a stronger 4Q25/FY25 and a positive medium-term growth narrative under Prabowo’s term, skepticism remains amid soft ground-level activity and signs of a shrinking middle class. Moody’s has shifted the sovereign outlook to negative.
Margin pressure persists. IDR weakness due to macro concerns has constrained system liquidity; relief has been short-lived. Opportunistic BI cuts (when FX pressures ease) and subsidised government programs (e.g., village cooperative loans) to support growth will further compress NIMs.
Governance/transparency risks at Danantara remain, and the transfer of SOE banks (including Mandiri) increases the risk of higher dividend payouts to fund government priorities. However, we are comfortable with the CET1 ratio dropping to the 14-16% range of other APAC banks.
Retail is under strain, but asset quality has trended better than peers due to a large-corporate tilt. Increased state-directed lending to less commercially viable projects though could pressure credit metrics over time.
Key Metric
AS OF 24 Feb 2026| IDR bn | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPP ROA | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 3.3% |
| ROA | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.1% |
| ROE | 14.2% | 19.0% | 22.4% | 20.5% | 19.5% |
| Equity/Assets | 11.9% | 11.5% | 12.0% | 11.7% | 10.4% |
| CET1 Ratio | 18.4% | 18.6% | 20.8% | 19.6% | 19.3% |
| NPL Ratio | 2.72% | 1.92% | 1.19% | 1.12% | 1.13% |
| Provisions/Average Loans | 1.98% | 1.41% | 0.79% | 0.77% | 0.57% |
| LDR | 81% | 81% | 89% | 98% | 90% |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 06 Feb 2026Mandiri is the biggest bank in Indonesia by assets and 60% government owned. It weathered the pandemic well given its focus on large corporates. Funding cost pressure from the tight liquidity environment has eased with recent government stimulus, and loan growth has picked up. Margins though are under pressure from state-subsidized lending programs and rate cuts impacting wholesale lending yields. Soft economic momentum, retail asset quality strains and higher governance risks are also headwinds. Fundamentals however remain sound with a corporates focused book, strong capital and healthy profitability. We expect higher dividend payouts to gradually reduce capital ratios but are comfortable with a 14-16% CET1 ratio. We have Mandiri on U/P due to Indonesia’s macro uncertainty overhang.
Recommendation Reviewed: February 06, 2026
Recommendation Changed: September 02, 2025
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