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Fundamental View
AS OF 21 Aug 2025We maintain our M/P recommendation on JD post its weak 2Q25 results; topline growth was a strong beat, but EBITDA margin materially narrowed due to hefty spending for its food delivery business; FOCF also contracted and gross debt metrics weakened, but JD still retained a strong net cash position. JD trades largely in-line to Asia A- corp which we view as fair; while we expect JD’s gross debt metrics to temporarily weaken over 2H25 due to its hefty investments into food delivery, we do not expect downgrade risk for the credit given the strong performance of its core retail and logistic segments, and we expect JD to still maintain a strong net cash position over the 12 months. Amongst the A-rated China tech credits, we continue to prefer Alibaba and Tencent.
Business Description
AS OF 21 Aug 2025- JD is one of China's leading e-commerce and retail infrastructure service providers.
- JD has a large fulfillment infrastructure which includes over 1,600 warehouses operated by the company, and 2,000 cloud warehouses operated by third-party warehouse owner-operators under JD Logistics Open Warehouse Platform. Its warehouse network had an aggregate gross floor area of approximately over 32 mn square meters, as of 31 December 2024.
- JD has 3 operating segments, namely (1) JD Retail (82% of 2Q25 revenues), which includes JD Health and JD Industrials, and the segment mainly engages in online retail, online marketplace and marketing services in China; (2) JD Logistics (14%) which includes both internal and external logistic businesses; and (3) New businesses (4%) which consist of food delivery, Dada, JD Property, Jingxi and overseas businesses.
- JD had a market capitalization of RMB 325.1 bn as of 21 Aug 2025.
Risk & Catalysts
AS OF 21 Aug 2025While Chinese regulators have adopted a friendlier stance towards tech companies, any regulatory clampdowns may still adversely affect the business of JD (e.g. antitrust rules, data security & personal data protection laws).
Intensifying competition amongst Chinese eCommerce platforms with the entrance of new live-streaming/short-form video platforms and group buying discount platforms may result in slower topline growth and weaker EBITDA margin for JD as its increase its user/merchant incentives and promotional activities to defend its market share.
There are regulatory risks involving the use of variable interest entities (VIEs) to circumvent China’s restrictions on foreign ownership of Internet Content Providers (ICPs). Specifically, VIE transactions involving “change in control” will be subject to antitrust regulatory processes.
Key Metric
AS OF 21 Aug 2025RMB mn | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | LTM 2Q25 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Debt to Book Cap | 12.2% | 19.2% | 18.8% | 22.3% | 25.3% |
Debt/Total Equity | 13.8% | 23.7% | 23.1% | 28.7% | 33.9% |
Debt/Total Assets | 6.9% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 12.9% | 14.3% |
Gross Leverage | 1.8x | 1.9x | 1.5x | 1.7x | 2.2x |
Interest Coverage | 16.1x | 16.3x | 15.5x | 18.5x | 16.2x |
EBITDA Margin | 2.0% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 3.6% |
CreditSight View Comment
AS OF 05 Sep 2025We also shift our recommendation on JD to Underperform from Market perform. JD trades only 1 bp wider than Asia A corporate and 5 bp tighter than Asia A- corporates; compared to Alibaba and Tencent, JD is only 17/8 bp wider, which is much tighter than the average spread differential of 24 bp for A3 and A1 Asia $ bonds. We think the current spreads of JD has not priced in its weaker credit outlook over the next 12 months given its rapid expansion within the food/retail on-demand delivery segment. We see reduced rating headroom for JD and expect S&P to revise its positive outlook on JD back to stable.
Recommendation Reviewed: September 05, 2025
Recommendation Changed: September 05, 2025
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