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MODEL PORTFOLIO THE GIST
NEWS AND FEATURES
Global Philippines Fine Living
INSIGHTS
INVESTMENT STRATEGY
Economy Stocks Bonds Currencies
THE BASICS
Investment Tips Explainers Retirement
WEBINARS
2024 Mid-Year Economi Briefing, economic growth in the Philippines
2024 Mid-Year Economic Briefing: Navigating the Easing Cycle
June 21, 2024
Investing with Love
Investing with Love: A Mother’s Guide to Putting Money to Work
May 15, 2024
retirement-ss-3
Investor Series: An Introduction to Estate Planning
September 1, 2023
View All Webinars
DOWNLOADS
Frick collection with palm trees 
Economic Updates
Policy Rate Updates: Closer to BSP’s Goldilocks moment
October 9, 2025 DOWNLOAD
economy-ss-9
Economic Updates
Inflation Update: Speeds up but remains below target
October 7, 2025 DOWNLOAD
A man and a woman in office attire hold pens as they talk about some charts.
Economic Updates
Monthly Economic Update: Fed back on track   
October 3, 2025 DOWNLOAD
View all Reports
Bonds Market Movements Top Picks Issuer List

Market Movements

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As of October 26, 2025

What happened last week? (October 13 – 17)

What to watch out for next?

Outlook

What happened last week? (October 13 – 17)

Global credits saw spreads move wider on risk-off headlines. Credit spreads gapped wider by 5-8 basis points (bps) at the start of the week following headlines of renewed trade tensions between the US and China. The widening move progressed, as further news of the US imposing port fees on Chinese vessels came out. Finally, at the end of the week, risk sentiment soured once again, as credit quality concerns hit a pair of regional US banks which revealed potential bad loans problems in the opaque private credit market. For Philippine corporates, the space continues to be retail driven as usual with most of the demand being concentrated in 4–5-year bank and corporate papers. With this, US Treasuries ended little changed to 3 bps lower. Sovereign spreads ended 6-12 bps wider while investment grade corporate spreads 8-10bps wider. Credit default swap spreads on the other hand are little changed to 2 bps wider.
  • The US NFIB Small Business Optimism for September came in lower than expected at 98.8 vs 100.6 in a Bloomberg Survey
  • The Empire State Manufacturing Index for October came in higher than expected at 10.7 vs –1.8 in a Bloomberg Survey. A positive index means growth, while a value below zero means a decline.
What to watch out for next?
What to watch out for next?

What happened last week? (October 13 – 17)

Global credits saw spreads move wider on risk-off headlines. Credit spreads gapped wider by 5-8 basis points (bps) at the start of the week following headlines of renewed trade tensions between the US and China. The widening move progressed, as further news of the US imposing port fees on Chinese vessels came out. Finally, at the end of the week, risk sentiment soured once again, as credit quality concerns hit a pair of regional US banks which revealed potential bad loans problems in the opaque private credit market. For Philippine corporates, the space continues to be retail driven as usual with most of the demand being concentrated in 4–5-year bank and corporate papers. With this, US Treasuries ended little changed to 3 bps lower. Sovereign spreads ended 6-12 bps wider while investment grade corporate spreads 8-10bps wider. Credit default swap spreads on the other hand are little changed to 2 bps wider.
  • The US NFIB Small Business Optimism for September came in lower than expected at 98.8 vs 100.6 in a Bloomberg Survey
  • The Empire State Manufacturing Index for October came in higher than expected at 10.7 vs –1.8 in a Bloomberg Survey. A positive index means growth, while a value below zero means a decline.
What to watch out for next?

What to watch out for next?

This week, market participants will closely monitor the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is expected to show a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, unchanged from the previous reading. On a year-on-year basis, CPI is forecast to rise to 3.1%, up from 2.9%, potentially shaping expectations around future monetary policy. The absence of September’s non-farm payrolls report—a key indicator for labor-market health—adds a layer of uncertainty to the US Federal Reserve ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee’s policy announcement on October 30, Philippine time.
What to watch out for next?

Outlook

Given the current valuations of global credits, the trading desk continues to prefer Middle Eastern issuers, as they trade at more attractive valuations relative to Asia credit. Although spreads have cheapened up a bit, the reactiveness of credit spreads toward last week’s bearish headlines might be a signal that current valuations are still too optimistic and could continue to be skewed toward further widening moves. With this, the trading desk would like to remain cautious and use further cheapening moves to build positions.
What to watch out for next?

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