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MODEL PORTFOLIO THE GIST
NEWS AND FEATURES
Global Philippines Fine Living
INSIGHTS
INVESTMENT STRATEGY
Economy Stocks Bonds Currencies
THE BASICS
Investment Tips Explainers Retirement
WEBINARS
2024 Mid-Year Economi Briefing, economic growth in the Philippines
2024 Mid-Year Economic Briefing: Navigating the Easing Cycle
June 21, 2024
Investing with Love
Investing with Love: A Mother’s Guide to Putting Money to Work
May 15, 2024
retirement-ss-3
Investor Series: An Introduction to Estate Planning
September 1, 2023
View All Webinars
DOWNLOADS
investment-ss-3
Reports
Policy rate views: Fed expected to do baby steps
September 18, 2025 DOWNLOAD
economy-ss-9
Economic Updates
Inflation Update: Faster but full-year average within target
September 5, 2025 DOWNLOAD
948 x 535 px AdobeStock_433552847
Reports
Monthly Economic Update: Waiting on Jay Powell
September 2, 2025 DOWNLOAD
View all Reports
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Market Movements

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As of September 25, 2025

What happened last week? (September 16–21)

What to watch out for next?

Outlook

What happened last week? (September 16–21)

For global credits, last week started quietly with most players preferring to stay on the sidelines ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The exception to this was the newly issued SMPH 30s which saw considerable demand after the issue date. From an issue price of 99.806 and issue spread of 120 basis points (bps), it traded up to 100.80 despite the move higher in US Treasury yields. This meant the spread tightened to as low as +94 bps in a few days, tighter than the +100 bps we estimated in our trade plan. Elsewhere, after the US Fed cut 25 bps as expected and adjusted the dots lower, players seemed more comfortable adding risk positions. ROP and Philly Corp names outperformed while INDON related names underperformed despite headlines about new stimulus and new laws to try to appease protestors.
  • The US Retail Sales Advance month-on-month came in higher than expected at 0.6 vs 0.2 in a Bloomberg Survey
  • The US FOMC cuts its policy to 4.25% from 4.5% in-line with Bloomberg Consensus.
  • The US Initial Jobless Claims week-on-week came in lower than expected at 231,000 vs 240,000 in a Bloomberg Survey.
What to watch out for next?
What to watch out for next?

What happened last week? (September 16–21)

For global credits, last week started quietly with most players preferring to stay on the sidelines ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The exception to this was the newly issued SMPH 30s which saw considerable demand after the issue date. From an issue price of 99.806 and issue spread of 120 basis points (bps), it traded up to 100.80 despite the move higher in US Treasury yields. This meant the spread tightened to as low as +94 bps in a few days, tighter than the +100 bps we estimated in our trade plan. Elsewhere, after the US Fed cut 25 bps as expected and adjusted the dots lower, players seemed more comfortable adding risk positions. ROP and Philly Corp names outperformed while INDON related names underperformed despite headlines about new stimulus and new laws to try to appease protestors.
  • The US Retail Sales Advance month-on-month came in higher than expected at 0.6 vs 0.2 in a Bloomberg Survey
  • The US FOMC cuts its policy to 4.25% from 4.5% in-line with Bloomberg Consensus.
  • The US Initial Jobless Claims week-on-week came in lower than expected at 231,000 vs 240,000 in a Bloomberg Survey.
What to watch out for next?

What to watch out for next?

The market will now turn its attention to the US GDP Growth Rate QoQ forecasted to grow by 3.3% and US Core PCE Index. Data will be released on September 25 and 26, respectively – Philippine time.
What to watch out for next?

Outlook

For this week, there is the 3rd reading of US GDP-related figures, Durable Goods for August, and the Core PCE Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation metric. Although new issuances have picked up in the past two weeks, these have been easily absorbed and tightened further post issuance. As such, we think there are few catalysts for a move wider in spreads for the remainder of the year. Any moves higher in yield will be a better entry level for those still underinvested, which will keep spreads near YTD lows
What to watch out for next?

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