Fed Update: Still pausing on rate action  

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) continued its pause on monetary easing, with Chairman Jerome Powell highlighting the lack of a need to hurry cutting interest rates amid “unusually elevated” uncertainty.

Now, markets are waiting on when the Fed will resume its easing.

Key points

• The Fed kept the Federal Funds Target Rate (FFR) at 4.25% to 4.50%, pausing for the second consecutive meeting after delivering a total of 100 basis points worth of cuts last year.
• According to the latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), Fed officials are now projecting slower economic growth, faster inflation and higher unemployment compared to previous projections in December.
• The Fed’s March dot plot was unchanged across the entire forecast period from December’s projections. The latest SEP shows that the Fed is projecting a cumulative 50-bp cut this year.

Moving forward

• Metrobank forecasts that the Fed will continue its easing cycle in 2025 with a total of 50 bps in cuts, with the possibility of a third cut of 25 bps – all to be delivered at a moderate pace.
• Despite the Fed’s pause, we anticipate a 25-bp policy-rate cut at the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) next meeting in April, narrowing the interest rate differential between the BSP and the Fed’s policy rates to 100 bps.

(Disclaimer: This is general investment information only and does not constitute an offer or guarantee, with all investment decisions made at your own risk. The bank takes no responsibility for any potential losses.)  

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ECONOMIC UPDATES 

Policy rate views: Keep rates and carry on

Fed sustains rate pause amid uncertainty

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