Seeking global steer, watching Fed pendulum swings

A look at the day ahead in Asian markets.

Investors in Asia will likely take their cue from global dynamics and drivers given the dearth of local market-moving events on Tuesday, and if that’s the case, the signs are reasonably encouraging.

The rocky ride last week that saw a sharp reversal in stocks and risk appetite gave way to a much smoother start to this week on Monday. Broad measures of implied volatility, bond yields and the dollar all fell to varying degrees, paving the way for a rebound in riskier assets.

There doesn’t appear to be any fresh catalyst or impetus for the generally upbeat start to the week, so equally, one could argue that there’s little guarantee Monday’s global momentum will continue into Asia on Tuesday.

But last week’s selling was heavy, and many shorter-term speculative positions will have been cleaned out. The MSCI World and Nasdaq both posted their biggest losses in 10 weeks, and the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index had its worst week since June 2022.

World stocks snapped a four-day losing streak on Monday while Asian stocks climbed for a second straight day, a surprisingly rare feat over the past six weeks.

Investors continue to weigh up the outlook for US interest rates in light of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks last Thursday that the central bank is in no rush to raise them, and last week’s relatively strong US economic data.

There’s a case to make that the ‘hawkish’ swing in the rates market’s implied Fed pricing since Powell’s comments – and indeed, over the last several weeks – has limited room to run.

It wasn’t that long ago talk of a possible 75 basis point rate cut in December was circulating and traders were betting on the fed funds rate ending next year around 2.75%. Now, even a 25 bps rate cut next month is by no means assured, and the implied end-2025 fed funds rate is not much below 4.00%.

Perhaps the pendulum has swung a little too far.

Investors may also be reluctant to take firm directional bets ahead of Nvidia’s results on Wednesday. The semiconductor giant, at the vanguard of the global AI frenzy, is the world’s most valuable company, and an earnings ‘beat’ or ‘miss’ will help set the global market tone for the rest of the week and probably year.

The local calendar in Asia on Tuesday is light. The main highlight will be the Reserve Bank of Australia‘s minutes of its last policy meeting, where it kept the cash rate steady at 4.35% and signaled the need to remain “vigilant” to upside inflation risks.

The RBA is only expected to start its easing cycle in May next year, and even then cut rates just half a percentage point by next December.

Editing by Deepa Babington)