US yields dip as traders renew bets on Fed rate cuts

March 22 – US Treasury yields dipped on Friday as traders renewed bets that the Federal Reserve would begin cutting interest rates in June, despite recent stronger-than-expected inflation reports.

Yields on benchmark 10-year notes fell to 4.215%, down 5.6 basis points (bps) from their close of 4.271% on Thursday. Yields had approached their February high of 4.354% on Monday.

Two-year yields ticked down to 4.595%, declining 3.7 bps from their Thursday close of 4.632%.

The inversion in the yield curve between two-year and 10-year notes widened by 3.3 bps to minus 38.2.

Market expectations of a June start to at least three rate cuts in 2024 were reinvigorated on Wednesday after Fed Chair Jerome Powell told reporters that inflation’s decline appeared to be tracking the US central bank’s expectations.

Yields rose last week following strong inflation prints for February, including consumer price index and producer price index readings that exceeded forecasts.

The Fed held rates steady on Wednesday and indicated three cuts in borrowing costs are still in sight this year. Powell said despite recent inflation data coming in hotter than expected, the numbers “haven’t really changed the overall story, which is that of inflation moving down gradually, on a somewhat bumpy road.”

A string of corporate earnings reports this week helped strengthen some traders’ convictions about the Fed’s rate-cutting path. Luxury apparel company Lululemon Athletica and restaurant chain Olive Garden, owned by Darden Restaurants, reported on Thursday slowing sales growth in North America in the fourth quarter.

“Some of the reports that have come out from companies show they’re really seeing a lot of weakness with consumers on luxury items and lower incomes,” said Bryce Doty, senior portfolio manager at Sit Investment Associates.

“We’re seeing that across the board … and so I think that has to be partly fueling what’s going on in Treasuries.”

Traders in federal funds futures have increased their bets that the Fed will cut rates in June to 74.5%, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

Markets next week will mainly be focused on the release of the personal consumption expenditures price index for February and weekly initial jobless claims.

“We had that big rally to end last year, and we’ve retraced about half of that now in terms of yield,” said Kevin Flanagan, head of fixed income strategy at WisdomTree.

“If you were to continue to see economic inflation and labor market numbers that we’ve gotten over the first two months of the year continue, I wouldn’t be surprised if the 10-year challenges that 4.30% to 4.35% mark.”

(Reporting by Matt Tracy; Editing by Paul Simao and Josie Kao)