<p><strong>GLOBAL: </strong>The US unleashed strikes against Iran and revoked Iran’s license to sell oil on the global market. The operations were launched as Iran targeted commercial shipping crewed by civilians.<br>&nbsp;</p>

<p><strong>Market impact: </strong>Oil prices surged on US-Iran attacks, while US stocks faced downward pressure as chip stocks tumbled.</p>

<p><strong>A sustained push back to the USD 100/barrel level requires a full blockade of the Strait of Hormuz </strong>or if Iranian oil infrastructure is targeted.<br>&nbsp;</p>

<p><strong>LOCAL: </strong>Philippine headline inflation eased to 6.4% year-on-year (YoY) in June, while core inflation rose to 4.4% YoY, a 31-month high. The divergence suggests that second-round effects from the Middle East conflict are beginning to emerge.<br>&nbsp;</p>

<p><strong>Market impact:</strong> The PSEi and the peso strengthened on the back of easing inflation.</p>

<p><strong>Metrobank has revised its 2026 inflation forecast to 5.5%,</strong> given the faster-than-expected de-escalation of the US-Iran conflict. However, upside risks such as El Niño and minimum wage hikes will still keep inflation above the BSP's target range.</p>