<p><strong>GLOBAL:</strong> US President Donald Trump is pushing back against the prospect of near-term diplomatic talks with Iran as threats in the Red Sea rattle global energy markets.</p>

<p><strong>Market impact:</strong> Oil prices and the US dollar advanced as expectations for negotiations cooled, while US equities closed higher, driven by a rebound in semiconductor stocks.&nbsp;</p>

<p><strong>US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth reported that the conflict has cost USD 37.5 billion to date.</strong> Although increased defense spending provides short-term fiscal stimulus, the primary risks are energy shocks and elevated inflation.&nbsp;</p>

<p><strong>LOCAL:</strong> The Philippines’ balance of payments (BOP) surplus hit USD 3.4 billion in June, the largest in nearly two years. The increase is due to seasonal dollar inflows and valuation gains.&nbsp;</p>

<p><strong>Market impact: </strong>The peso approached record lows amid geopolitical tensions, while the PSEi declined due to profit-taking.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Moving into the second half of the year, <strong>the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas expects the BOP deficit to reach USD 10.7 billion in 2026, equivalent to -2.1% of GDP.</strong></p>