<p><strong>GLOBAL:</strong> The US and Iran reached an agreement to end their months-long military conflict. An official signing ceremony is scheduled on Friday, June 19.</p>

<p><strong>Market impact:</strong> US stock futures rallied and global crude prices plummeted in early trading on Monday, as financial markets reacted to news of the peace deal.</p>

<p><strong>Oil prices will continue to go down as the Strait of Hormuz reopens.</strong> However, the peace deal is designed to halt active warfare, rather than a more lasting peace.&nbsp;</p>

<p><strong>LOCAL: </strong>A BusinessWorld poll showed that the Monetary Board will increase the target reverse repurchase rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.75% amid high inflation and persistent currency weakness.&nbsp;</p>

<p><strong>Market impact:</strong> Markets continued to focus on geopolitical developments. Stocks continued to decline while the peso climbed as the US halted strikes on Iran.</p>

<p><strong>Metrobank Research also expects a 25-bp hike as inflation</strong> is likely to remain above the 2-4% target range.</p>