Q3 underspending to ‘temporarily’ drag growth — Recto

Government underspending in the third quarter, mainly due to a corruption crackdown that curbed public disbursements, is expected to temporarily dent economic growth this year, Finance Secretary Ralph G. Recto said.

“This (underspending in the third quarter) is expected to temporarily weigh on government final consumption expenditure and the overall GDP (gross domestic product) growth,” he told BusinessWorld in a Viber message on Oct. 31.

The Marcos administration only disbursed PHP 1.46 trillion in the third quarter, data from the Bureau of the Treasury showed, PHP 141.73 billion less than its PHP 1.6-trillion program for the period. This is mainly due to lower spending by the Department of Public Works and Highways, which is at the center of a corruption scandal involving flood control projects.

“Nevertheless, the government’s swift and decisive action following the recent flood control controversy marks the beginning of a major government cleanup that will lead to stronger institutions, better governance, and faster growth in the medium term,” Mr. Recto said.

President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. had flagged anomalous flood control projects during his State of the Nation Address in late July. This sparked several investigations into alleged corruption involving lawmakers, government officials, and private contractors.

“The controversy has also revealed that not all capital expenditures translate into growth. And now that we’re plugging those leaks and reallocating funds to high-impact investments — such as education, healthcare, agriculture, and digitalization — we will only grow faster,” Mr. Recto said.

As of end-September, the National Government has released PHP 4.48 trillion, equivalent to 73.72% of its PHP 6.08-trillion full-year disbursement program for 2025.

Economic managers, including Mr. Recto, earlier warned that gross domestic product (GDP) growth likely softened in the third quarter. The government is targeting 5.5-6.5% GDP growth this year.

Official GDP data will be released by the Philippine Statistics Authority on Nov. 7.

Mr. Recto also vowed that “catch-up measures” are underway to keep spending on track and fuel growth.

“Although there has been a slowdown in government spending as we continue to address the flood control corruption controversy, this reflects the administration’s commitment to spend only on legitimate programs and projects,” he said.

He noted the “short-term adjustment” will pave the way for more efficient and transparent public expenditures in the future.

“Having identified and removed anomalous projects, we are ensuring that taxpayers’ money goes to genuine initiatives, eliminating waste and paying only for the true cost of government programs,” Mr. Recto said, adding the President has directed government agencies to cut costs by 50%.

Economy Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan and Budget Secretary and Development Budget Coordination Committee Chairperson Amenah F. Pangandaman has earlier said the 5.5% to 6.5% GDP growth target remains achievable.

However, some economists have lowered their growth forecast for the Philippines, citing the corruption probe that led to lower investor sentiment.

Last week, Nomura Global Markets Research slashed its 2025 growth forecast for the Philippines to 4.7% from 5.3%, noting the mounting downside risks from a corruption scandal tied to flood control projects.

Sought for comment, Mr. Recto said Nomura’s downgrade is “overly conservative.”

“To reach a 4.7% GDP for 2025, this means the economy will grow by just 4% in the second half of the year. This fails to account for progress made in terms of lower inflation and improvements in the labor market, which will boost household spending, recovery in the agriculture sector, continued growth in services, and stronger performance of merchandise exports despite higher US tariffs,” he said.

Meanwhile, Mr. Recto said the Department of Finance (DoF) is regularly assessing the performance of revenue-collecting agencies as revenues are expected to be affected by the corruption scandal.

“The DoF… is open to making the necessary adjustments, when necessary,” he said. “Nevertheless, the economic managers remain committed to fiscal consolidation by closely monitoring the latest developments internally and externally to ensure we attain the set deficit targets.” — Aubrey Rose A. Inosante, Reporter