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Metrobank US-Iran Risk Index: Lingering threats
While oil prices have slipped, geopolitical tensions are unlikely to ease anytime soon
By Metrobank Research, Investment Counselor Department
Our US-Iran Risk Index settled at 122.7 on March 9, 2026. This is 9.5% lower than the day prior. This marks the most drastic decline in the index’s level since the conflict commenced.
This downward movement was largely due to lower oil prices. Brent oil prices have already pulled back by 11% on Tuesday after reaching USD 100 per barrel in the previous days. This came after US President Donald Trump’s remarks that the conflict may end sooner rather than later.
Whether this statement will hold remains to be seen, especially as military conflict in the Middle East rages on. Markets will be monitoring statements from newly appointed Iran Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei.
Still, inflationary risks are high as evidenced by an uptick in 10-year US Treasury yields. Meanwhile, safe haven demand for the US dollar slid following Trump’s comments, and news that G7 countries are discussing a coordinated release of oil reserves to ensure ample supply. The dollar index settled lower, just below the 99-level.
Metrobank Research’s US-Iran Risk Index measures the amount of risk that the ongoing conflict presents to financial markets. It considers the general risk sentiment of investors and inflationary pressures brought on by the conflict. A value of 100 denotes a normal level of risk based on market levels prior to the conflict’s escalation, while values greater than 100 imply increasing levels of risk.
What now?
| Asset Class | Outlook | Strategy |
|---|---|---|
| Local Fixed Income | Bearish | Stay defensive on duration and focus on short‑to‑belly tenors with good liquidity. Add positions only during yield spikes or market dislocations. Avoid aggressive moves until geopolitical risk premiums ease. |
| Local Equities | Bearish | Expect bargain-hunting of cheaper names in the near term. However, gains may remain capped amid oil volatility and developments in the Middle East. Buy on dips and take profit in rallies. |
| Global Fixed Income | Bearish | Position in short-dated (up to 5 years) quality bonds as inflation fears add upward pressure on yields. Expect volatile swings as headlines drive market sentiment amid uncertainty. |
| Global Equities | Neutral | Maintain a defensive approach by prioritizing high dividend sectors while taking advantage of volatility to accumulate select quality growth names. |
| USD/PHP | Bullish | Buy US dollars on dips or close to support levels at 59.40 and 59.00. Oil prices and safe-haven flows will pressure the peso, though positive news that affect local and global inflation expectations offer potential relief. |
| G10 Currencies / US Dollar | Bearish | The latest bout of volatility has validated the US dollar’s safe haven status yet again. Continued conflict will favor the US dollar, but G10 currencies will recover once risk sentiment improves. Domestic factors will determine the scale of impact on FX rates. |
| Gold | Bullish | While initially reaching highs of USD 5,400 per troy ounce on safe haven demand, gold has pared gains after higher oil prices sparked expectations of higher US inflation, delayed US Fed rate cuts, and a stronger US dollar. Still, the precious metal continues to be supported at the USD 5,000 / USD 5,100 level. Our long-term view is steady price appreciation as global central banks purchase gold to diversify reserves beyond the US dollar and US Treasuries. |
(Disclaimer: This is general investment information only and does not constitute an offer or guarantee, with all investment decisions made at your own risk. The bank takes no responsibility for any potential losses.)