Stock Market Weekly: Rosy US data to influence local bourse 

WHAT HAPPENED LAST WEEK

During the shortened trading week, the Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) ended flattish by 0.56%, closing at 6,376.79 (+35.26 points). This is supported by a more subdued May inflation print at 1.3%, within the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) monthly forecast range of 0.9-1.7%, which reinforces the likelihood of another BSP rate cut.

Sentiment also improved following the enactment of the Capital Market Efficiency Promotion Act (CMEPA) into law as Republic Act No. 12214, which introduces financial tax reforms such as reducing friction costs, aimed at creating a more favorable environment for investing in the Philippine equities market. Meanwhile, the market digested the mixed views on the House of Representatives’ approval of the PHP 200 wage hike bill (House Bill No. 11376) on third and final reading, with some seeing it as a populist measure and others concerned about its potential inflationary impact and negative effects on businesses.

The US labor market added 139k jobs in May 2025 – better than the consensus estimate of 130k additions yet lower than April 2025’s 177k – with most of the job gains coming from healthcare (+62k), leisure and hospitality (+48k), and social assistance (+16k) sectors. The unemployment rate was steady at 4.2%. Labor force participation rate declined to 62.4%. Wage growth came in at 3.9% y/y.

WHAT TO EXPECT THIS WEEK

This week, we expect the local bourse to trade sideways with an upward bias in view of international economic data. Investors will price in the better-than-expected May 2025 US jobs data with stable unemployment rate and higher wages despite a turbulent policy environment.

Corporates will also await further progress in trade talks between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping following their phone call meeting. On the other hand, the market will be on the lookout for the US May 2025 inflation rate which is expected to accelerate to 0.3% from 0.2%.

ANALYSIS

The PSEi increased 0.56% w/w to 6,376.79 (+35.30 points), trying to reclaim the 6,400 level and closing below its 20-day and 200-day moving averages (MA). With the index now struggling to break past the 6,400 resistance, a retest of the 6,200 support remains possible, potentially offering an attractive re-entry opportunity. Key support levels are set at 6,000 and 6,200, while resistance levels are at 6,400 and 6,600.

Resistance: 6,400 / 6,600

Support: 6,200 / 6,000

STOCK CALLS FOR THE WEEK

Apex Mining Co., Inc. (APX) | BUY ON PULLBACKS | CONSENSUS TARGET PRICE: PHP 7.00

The stock is currently in a strong bullish phase, supported by healthy trading volume. This momentum is expected to continue due to positive developments related to the stock’s underlying asset and favorable momentum indicators.

However, the formation of a double top near PHP 7.00 could trigger a short-term price correction. Accumulating APX once it pulls back near the 20-day moving average (MA) at PHP 6.40 is advisable. Take profits at PHP 7.30 and set stop loss limits at PHP 5.88.

Globe Telecom, Inc. (GLO) | BUY | FMSEC TARGET PRICE: PHP 2,030.00

GLO’s trajectory appears to be bearish, with the stock trading below all key moving averages (MA) after it broke below a critical support around PHP 2,000. Momentum indicators are bearish but are showing signs of recovery. Accumulating GLO at current levels around PHP 1,800 is advisable. Take profits at PHP 2,070.00 and set stop loss limits at PHP 1,656.00.

Philex Mining Corp. (PX) | BUY ON PULLBACKS | CONSENSUS TARGET PRICE: PHP 12.00

PX still presents a bullish outlook, but its momentum is clearly weakening as the 50-day moving average (MA) has crossed below the 20-day MA. Although momentum indicators suggest upside potential, the price action is notably volatile. Accumulating PX once it pulls back near 20-day MA at PHP 6.30 is advisable. Take profits at PHP 7.23 and set stop loss limits at PHP 5.80.

KEY DATA RELEASES

1. US Consumer Price Index (CPI) Inflation month-on-month (m/m) for May 2025 on Wednesday, June 11, 2025 (previous: 0.2%; estimates: 0.3%)

2. US Producers’ Price Index (PPI) m/m for May 2025 on Thursday, June 12, 2025 (previous: -0.5%; estimates: 0.2%)

3. US Initial Jobless Claims as of June 7, 2025, on Thursday, June 12, 2025

4. PH Foreign Direct Investment for March 2025 on Friday, Jun 13, 2025 (USD 500 million; previous: USD 950 million)