Stock Market Weekly: Pall of uncertainty remains 

WHAT HAPPENED LAST WEEK

The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) closed the week at 6,147.44 (-1.90% week-on-week), down 119.31 points, as risk-off sentiment persisted amid domestic and global uncertainties.

A system issue at the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE) led to a delayed 11:10 AM open early in the week, dampening sentiment and setting the stage for subdued trading throughout the week. Caution also prevailed as US President Donald Trump confirmed plans to impose reciprocal tariffs, referred to as “Liberation Day,” set to take effect on April 2, 2025, targeting key sectors such as automobiles, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors.

The mounting tariffs have weighed on the global economic outlook, contributing to weaker market confidence. Meanwhile, heightened political noise arising from rallies in support of former President Rodrigo Duterte, albeit mostly peaceful, added another layer of uncertainty and further limited risk appetite.

WHAT TO EXPECT THIS WEEK

Looking ahead, we expect the market to trade sideways with a slight downside bias as lingering concerns over US tariff policies continue to weigh on sentiment. On the domestic front, investors will closely watch the March 2025 PH inflation print, set for release on April 4, with consensus expectations pointing to a reading in line with the prior month. Globally, market participants will focus on key macroeconomic data, particularly US jobs numbers, which could be pivotal for the US Fed’s next policy move. However, some near-term uplift may emerge as the market trades around key support levels.

Resistance: 6,400 / 6,200

Support: 6,000 / 6,100

ANALYSIS

The PSEi found direction after trading sideways last week, slipping 119.31 points to 6,147.44 (-1.90% w/w). It fell below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, while the momentum indicator RSI indicates weakness but not oversold conditions.

A bounce to 6,200 could signal recovery, while failure to hold 6,100 may lead to a retest of 6,000. The overall trend appears bearish, suggesting caution until stronger support levels are established.

STOCK CALLS FOR THE WEEK

MREIT, Inc. (MREIT) | BUY ON SUPPORT | FMSEC TARGET PRICE: PHP 14.06

MREIT’s share price is attempting to close above its resistance level at PHP 13.99 after nearing its support level at PHP 13.50 last Friday. Moreover, it remains above its 20-day, 50- day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages (MAs).

For momentum indicators, both its MACD and RSI are nearing overbought levels. If MREIT’s price fails to close above its resistance level, then a possible reversal may happen and its price might visit its key support level at PHP 13.50. Therefore, given the risk is skewed toward the downside, accumulating on support is advisable. We recommend accumulating MREIT at PHP 13.50. Set stop limit orders at PHP 12.42 and take profits at PHP 15.53.

Semirara Mining and Power Corp. (SCC) | BUY ON PULLBACKS | CONSENSUS TARGET PRICE: PHP 38.23

SCC is currently in an uptrend but has been consolidating since last month. It is trading above key moving averages (MAs) (50-day, 100-day, and 200-day), but below the 20-day MA, indicating short term weakness.

On momentum indicators, the MACD has crossed below the signal line, and the RSI has dropped sharply from overbought territory, both suggesting a potential pullback. Accumulating SCC once it pulls back near the 100-day MA around the PHP 34.80 level is advisable. Set stop loss limits at PHP 32.02 and take profit around PHP 40.02

Puregold Price Club, Inc. (PGOLD) | BUY ON SUPPORT |CONSENSUS TARGET PRICE: PHP 36.00

PGOLD’s share price has dropped below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages (MAs) and is nearing its key support level at PHP 26.35. Since the start of the year, PGOLD has struggled to surpass its 100-day and 200-day MAs, which further signals weak momentum, reducing the possibility of a potential reversal.

On momentum indicators, its MACD and RSI are slightly below neutral levels suggesting a possible visit near its key support at PHP 25.00. Therefore, given the risk is skewed toward the downside, accumulating at support is advisable. Accumulate PGOLD on support at PHP25.00. Set stop limit orders at PHP 23.00 and take profits at PHP 28.75.

KEY DATA RELEASES

1. PH Bank Lending year-on-year (y/y) for February 2025 on Monay, March 31, 2025 (previous: 11.3%)

2. PH Money Supply M3 SRF y/y for February 2025 on Monday, March 31, 2025 (previous: 6.8%)

3. US S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for March 2025 on Tuesday, April 1, 2025 (previous: 49.8)

4. PH S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for March 2025 on Wednesday, April 2, 2025 (previous: 51.0)

5. PH Inflation Rate y/y for March 2025 on Friday, April 4, 2025 (estimates: 2.1%; previous: 2.1%)

6. US Unemployment Rate for March 2025 on Fricay, March 7, 2025 (estimates: 4.1%; previous: 4.1%).