Stock Market Weekly: Looking forward to trade talks 

WHAT HAPPENED LAST WEEK

The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) was up 134.13 points last week, closing at 6,268.75 (+2.19% week-on-week), driven by easing trade tensions. This comes as more countries indicated their willingness to negotiate with the US and as US President Trump softened his stance on China. Furthermore, we believe that investors have begun to recognize the Philippines as a potential safe haven amid Trump’s reciprocal tariffs.

WHAT TO EXPECT THIS WEEK

This week, we expect the index to extend its gains ahead of the trade talks between the Philippines and the United States. The 1Q 2025 earnings season has started, with index heavyweights scheduled to release results before the Labor Day holiday. Investors will assess corporate earnings performance, focusing on economic conditions and management’s views on trade tensions.

Resistance: 6,400 / 6,600

Support: 6,000 / 6,200

ANALYSIS

The PSEi increased 2.19% w/w to 6,268.75 (+134.13 points), breaking past its 6,200 resistance as well as its 20-day and 50-day moving averages (MA). With the index now trending upward, accumulating on sustained strength is advisable as the overall trend has shifted to bullish. Key support levels are set at 6,000 and 6,200, while its resistance levels are at 6,400 and 6,600.

STOCK CALLS FOR THE WEEK

Century Pacific Food, Inc. (CNPF) | BUY | FMSEC TARGET PRICE: PHP 41.00

While we currently have a fundamental “hold” call on the stock, we think that price weakness is an opportunity to accumulate as the stock’s price has fallen near 52-week lows. Despite trading below all key moving averages (20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day), the psychological support around PHP 34.60 appears to be holding firm. On momentum indicators, the RSI is neutral while the MACD is showing early signs of a potential bullish crossover, which could signal a reversal in the trend once momentum picks up. Accumulating CNPF at levels between PHP 35.00 and PHP 35.50 is advisable. Take profits at PHP 40.54 and set stop loss limits below PHP 32.43.

Wilcon Depot Inc. (WLCON) | BUY | FMSEC TARGET PRICE: PHP 9.00

WLCON has declined by more than 60% year-to-date, trading at extremely oversold levels with RSI at ~19. The counter hovers below key moving averages (50-day, 100-day, and 200-day MA), nearing historical long-term support around PHP 5.45 – PHP 5.50. At current levels, we believe that risks are skewed to the upside. Accumulating WLCON at levels around PHP 5.45 – PHP 5.50 is advised. Take profits at PHP 6.35 and set your stop loss below PHP 5.06.

Cebu Air, Inc. (CEB) | BUY | CONSENSUS TARGET PRICE: PHP 54.47

CEB broke out of its immediate resistance of PHP 34.50. It is trading above key moving averages (50-day, 100-day, and 200-day MA) with momentum indicators (RSI and MACD) signaling strong bearish sentiment. Thus, we prefer to trend follow and accumulate on pullbacks. Accumulating once CEB pulls back to PHP 34.50 is advised. Take profits at PHP 41.4 and set your stop loss below PHP 31.74.

KEY DATA RELEASES

1. PH Budget Balance for March 2025 on April 29, 2025 (previous: PHP-171.4 billion)

2. PH Balance of Trade for March 2025 on April 30, 2025 (previous: USD 3.16 billion)

3. PH Exports year-on-year (y/y) for March 2025 on April 30, 2025 (previous: 3.9%)

4. PH Imports y/y for March 2025 on April 30, 2025 (previous: 1.8%)

5. PH Producers’ Price Index (PPI) y/y for March 2025 on April 30, 2025 (previous: 0.8%)

6. US GDP Growth Rate quarter-on-quarter (q/q) Adv on April 30, 2025 (estimates: 0.4%; previous: 2.4%)

7. US S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) Final for April 2025 on May 1, 2025 (estimates: 50.7; previous: 50.2)

8. PH S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final for April 2025 on May 2, 2025 (previous: 49.4)

9. US Non-Farm Payrolls for April 2025 on May 2, 2025 (estimates: 130K; previous: 228K)

10. US Unemployment Rate for April 2025 on May 2, 2025 (estimates: 4.2%; previous: 4.2%).