Stock Market Weekly: An eye on earnings 

WHAT HAPPENED LAST WEEK

The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) closed the first trading week of February on firmer footing, ending at 6,390.91 (+0.98% week-on-week or +61.94 points) as the market partially recovered from the prior week’s GDP-driven pullback.

The rebound, however, remained measured amid persistent caution over global market volatility, which tempered gains from the PSEi’s latest rebalancing. Sentiment improved on the back of supportive domestic macro prints. The country’s manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) climbed to a 9-month high of 52.9 in January 2026, while S&P Global Ratings reiterated the Philippines’ prospects for a potential upgrade to BBB+.

Fitch Solutions’ BMI likewise kept its 2026 GDP growth forecast at 5.2%, citing expectations of a 2H 2026 public spending rebound, lagged effects of rate cuts from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), and firmer household consumption—particularly among remittance-supported segments benefiting from peso depreciation.

Meanwhile, Jan 2026 inflation surprised slightly to the upside at 2.0% (Dec 2025: 1.8%; Jan 2025: 2.9%; consensus: 1.8%), though still comfortably within both BSP and government target ranges, reinforcing a picture of steady domestic demand.

WHAT TO EXPECT THIS WEEK

We expect the market to trade sideways with a slight upward bias, supported by the start of corporate earnings releases for full-year results.

Mid-week, attention will shift to the MSCI Quarterly Index Rebalancing (QIR) announcement, where investors will watch for potential adjustments to the MSCI PH Standard and Small Cap indices. Changes will be implemented after market close on February 27, 2026, and take effect on March 2, 2026.

Globally, risk sentiment will be guided by the release of January 2026 US inflation and labor market data, which could provide fresh cues on the trajectory of global rates and investor positioning.

Resistance: 6,600 / 6,500

Support: 6,200 / 6,300

ANALYSIS

The PSEi increased 0.98% w/w to 6,390.91 (61.94 points), trending above the 20-day moving average. Price action may continue to rise until it tests the 6,500 levels, which serves as strong resistance.

If price action retracts, this will develop a double-top pattern, which will signal a breakdown, though a break in resistance will indicate a breakout. The RSI is currently at overbought levels, while the MACD remains below the signal line, indicating a bearish signal.

STOCK CALLS FOR THE WEEK

RL Commercial REIT, Inc. (RCR) | BUY ON SUPPORT | FMSEC TARGET PRICE: PHP 8.4

Following its block sale, RCR’s stock price had a major decline, though it was able to increase its free float to 44.18%, enhancing share liquidity and improving accessibility for larger institutional investors.

Management has reiterated its intention to infuse additional assets within the year and has indicated readiness to increase dividend distributions.

Accumulating on support at PHP 7.50 is advisable. Take profits at around PHP 8.25 and set a stop loss limit at around PHP 7.10.

Megaworld Corp. (MEG) | BUY ON SUPPORT | FMSEC TARGET PRICE: PHP 2.8

Megaworld Corporation (MEG) is expanding its MICE segment, creating additional avenues for long-term growth across its township, hospitality, and commercial ecosystems. The expansion also positions MEG to maximize the recently updated REIT framework, which allows a broader range of cash-generating assets beyond traditional office and residential properties.

Accumulating on support at the 20-day MA around PHP 2.16–2.17 is advisable.

Take profits at around PHP 2.48 and set a stop loss limit at around PHP 1.94.

SM Prime Holdings, Inc. (SMPH) | BUY ON BREAKOUT | FMSEC TARGET PRICE: PHP 28

SM Prime Holdings, Inc. (SMPH) remains one of our top picks for 2026 under the large-cap cyclicals theme. While the company has already demonstrated resilience, we see further upside as it stands to benefit from an economic recovery and improving investor confidence—particularly through stronger real estate demand and normalizing household spending.

Accumulating once SMPH breaks above PHP 24.40 is advisable. Take profits at PHP 26.85 and set a stop loss below PHP 23.18.

KEY DATA RELEASES

1. US Imports and Exports year-on-year (y/y) for December 2025 on Tuesday, February 10,2026
2. US Retail Sales y/y for December 2025 on Tuesday, February 10, 2026 (previous: 3.3%; estimates: 2.9%)
3. US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls for January 2026 on Wednesday, February 11, 2026 (previous: 50k; estimates: 69k)
4. US Unemployment Rate for January 2026 on Wednesday, February 11, 2026 (previous: 4.4%; estimates: 4.4%)
5. PH Foreign Direct Investment for November 2025 on Thursday, February 12, 2026 (previous: USD 0.6 billion)
6. US Inflation Rate y/y for January 2026 on Friday, February 13, 2026 (previous: 2.7%; estimates: 2.5%)

(First Metro Securities Disclaimer: We obtain our information from sources we believe are accurate and reliable, but we cannot guarantee its completeness or accuracy. Our content consists of opinions, not investment recommendations, and you should perform your own research before making any investment decisions. First Metro Securities is not liable for any losses or damages resulting from the use of this information.)

(Metrobank Disclaimer: This is general investment information only and does not constitute an offer or guarantee, with all investment decisions made at your own risk. The bank takes no responsibility for any potential losses.)