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September Economic Updates: Sustained growth amid uncertainties
We see sustained GDP expansion, easing inflation, and monetary policy shifts for 2024-2026.
By Metrobank Research
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We have slightly revised our full-year gross domestic product (GDP) forecast, expecting lagged effects of the high interest rates to weigh on growth. However, we expect consumption and investments to gradually pick up next year following the start of the easing cycle of the central bank.
With lower rice tariffs expected to continue to pull down inflation in the coming months, we retain our full-year 2024 inflation forecast of 3.3%. Meanwhile, we see full-year inflation at 3.0% for both 2025 and 2026.
On September 26, BSP Governor Eli Remolona Jr. signaled 25 basis points (bps) worth of cuts each in the October 17 and December 19 Monetary Board (MB) meetings, supporting our call for a total of 75 bps worth of cuts for full year 2024. We maintain our baseline forecast of a total of 75 bps wo