Oil falls on Chinese stimulus disappointment, supply outlook

HOUSTON – Oil prices fell by more than 2% on Monday after China’s latest stimulus plan disappointed investors seeking demand growth in the world’s second-biggest oil consumer, while supply looked set to rise in 2025.

Brent crude futures settled at USD 71.83 a barrel, down USD 2.04 or 2.76%. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures finished at USD 68.04 a barrel, down USD 2.34, or 3.32%.

Both benchmarks fell more than 2% on Friday.

Donald Trump’s US election victory may continue to affect the market, said Phil Flynn, senior analyst for the Price Futures Group.

“The election with Trump’s promise to ‘drill, baby, drill’ has taken away some incentive to go long,” Flynn said.

The US dollar index, a measure of its value relative to a basket of foreign currencies, slightly overshot the highs seen right after last week’s US presidential election, with markets still waiting for clarity about future US policy.

A stronger dollar makes commodities denominated in the US currency, such as oil, more expensive for holders of other currencies and tends to weigh on prices.

In China, consumer prices rose at the slowest pace in four months in October while producer price deflation deepened, data showed on Saturday, even as Beijing doubled down on stimulus to support the sputtering economy.

“Chinese inflation figures were again weak, with the market fearing deflation, particularly as the yearly change in the producer price index fell further into negative territory … Chinese economic momentum remains negative,” said Achilleas Georgolopoulos, a market analyst at brokerage XM.

Bank of America Securities said in a note on Monday that non-OPEC crude supply was expected to grow by 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025 and 900,000 bpd in 2026.

“Meaningful non-OPEC growth next year and an unconvincing Chinese stimulus package likely mean inventories will swell even without OPEC+ increases,” Bank of America noted.

In late September, OPEC+ said it would boost supply in December by 180,000 bpd, but earlier this month an agreement was reached among the member and allied countries to postpone the supply expansion until January.

The US offshore production regulator said 25.7% of crude oil production and 13% natural gas output remains shut because of Hurricane Rafael, which by Monday broke apart and was only a remnant storm in the central Gulf of Mexico.

(Reporting by Erwin Seba in Houston; Additional reporting by Arunima Kumar in Bengaluru, Robert Harvey in London, and Florence Tan in Singapore; Editing by Louise Heavens, Paul Simao, Susan Fenton, Christina Fincher, and Cynthia Osterman)