Oil holds steady; market awaits clarity on OPEC+ next move

CALGARY – Oil prices held steady on Monday with news that eight OPEC+ countries, who had pledged extra voluntary oil output cuts, will now meet on May 31, a day earlier than previously planned.

Brent crude futures settled down four cents at USD 64.74 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude last traded at USD 61.53 a barrel, unchanged from the prior day’s session.

Trading volumes were light due to the US Memorial Day holiday.

Three OPEC+ sources told Reuters on Monday about the change of the meeting date. The meeting will likely decide on July output, which sources have previously told Reuters will entail another 411,000 barrels per day of production increase.

The meeting is separate from the online ministerial meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, led by Russia, set for May 28. Russian Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Monday that OPEC+ has not yet discussed hiking output by another 411,000 barrels per day ahead of its meeting, RIA news agency reported.

“At this stage, it feels like the market is exhausted with this,” said Rory Johnston, a Toronto-based analyst and founder of the Commodity Context newsletter, adding investors and traders are still anticipating the arrival of additional OPEC barrels but are disinclined to react significantly until something material emerges.

OPEC oil output edged lower in April despite a scheduled output hike taking effect, Johnston pointed out, which added to the overall market hesitancy.

“It feels like (OPEC) really wants to have headlines every couple of days,” Johnston said. “But the market reaction to them at this point is waiting for anything (tangible) to actually show up.”

Both Brent and WTI had traded higher earlier in Monday’s session after US President Donald Trump said he agreed to extend a deadline for trade talks with the European Union until July 9, marking another temporary trade policy reprieve.

The extension eased concerns that US tariffs on the EU could hit fuel demand.

Global markets climbed on Monday and the euro rallied.

“Trump’s pivot, by postponing higher tariffs for the EU, and his comments on possible sanctions on Russia are moderately supporting crude prices today,” UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said.

Trump separately said in a social media post that Russian President Vladimir Putin had “gone absolutely CRAZY” by unleashing the largest aerial attack of the war on Ukraine and that he was weighing new sanctions on Moscow.

(Reporting by Amanda Stephenson in Calgary; Additional reporting by Ahmad Gaddar in London; Sam Li in Beijing, and Florence Tan in Singapore; Editing by Barbara Lewis, Bill Berkrot, and Cynthia Osterman)