Rates & Bonds 3 MIN READ

Yields up on week after labor, other data send mixed rate path signals

July 21, 2023By Reuters

July 21 (Reuters) – US Treasury yields ticked down on Friday but were still slightly up on the week, after a slew of economic data that left mixed signals as to whether the Federal Reserve is nearing its rate-hiking cycle.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields were down 1.1 basis points on the day at 3.842%.

Meanwhile, interest rate sensitive two-year Treasury yields rose 1.1 basis points to 4.850%.

The inversion in the yield curve between two-year and 10-year notes, a key indicator of recession expectations, was last at minus 100.9 basis points.

The yield curve’s widening comes after a week of economic data points, which have sent mixed signals to the market about the Fed’s likely monetary policy after its meeting next week from July 25-26.

“All of these numbers are consistent with a recessionary dynamic and have been for the better part of the second half of this year,” said Ed Al-Hussainy, senior global rates strategist at asset manager Columbia Threadneedle in New York.

Yields spiked on Thursday following initial jobless claims data from the Labor Department that showed 228,000 claims for the week ending July 15, a decline from the previous week and their lowest since mid-May.

Other data painted a more negative economic picture, such as Thursday’s data from the National Association of Realtors which showed a month-to-month drop in existing home sales at the same time as home prices rose to their second-highest ever recorded.

Despite the mixed signals, market participants have remained focused on the latest inflation data, perhaps the most important to the Fed’s decision whether to hike rates further in the coming months. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is widely expected to announce a 25-basis-point hike at next week’s meeting.

“One signal that has been consistent is the decline in pricing,” Al-Hussainy said. “Prices paid, prices received and so on are consistent with inflation coming down and inflation losing momentum.”

Ten-year yields fell to a 10-day low on July 13 after data came in showing producer prices remained largely flat in June and producer inflation increased its lowest in nearly three years.

It came after an inflation report on July 12 showed similar readings for US consumer prices.

On July 24, ahead of the Fed’s meeting, the market will watch for the S&P Global Flash US Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ indices, two surveys of conditions in the manufacturing and services sectors.


July 21 Friday 3:22 PM New York / 1922 GMT

  Price Current Yield % Net Change (bps)
Three-month bills 5.2675 5.4243 0.008
Six-month bills 5.2575 5.4878 -0.002
Two-year note 99-150/256 4.8501 0.011
Three-year note 100-34/256 4.4514 0.008
Five-year note 99-144/256 4.0983 -0.002
Seven-year note 98-162/256 3.9772 -0.012
10-year note 96-52/256 3.8428 -0.011
30-year bond 94-248/256 3.9121 0.001
  Last (bps) Net Change (bps)  
US 2-year dollar swap spread 17.75 0.25  
US 3-year dollar swap spread 14.75 0.25  
US 5-year dollar swap spread 7.50 0.50  
US 10-year dollar swap spread 2.75 0.50  
US 30-year dollar swap spread -36.75 1.00  


(Reporting by Matt Tracy, Editing by Nick Zieminski and Alison Williams)


This article originally appeared on reuters.com

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