Yields rise before data, five-year auction sees solid demand

US government bond yields gained on Wednesday as traders waited on key economic releases on Thursday and Friday for further clues on Federal Reserve policy, while the US Treasury saw solid demand for an auction of five-year notes.

The main economic focus this week will be first-quarter gross domestic product data on Thursday and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) for March on Friday. They come after a hotter-than-expected consumer price inflation report for March pushed back expectations of when the Fed will begin cutting interest rates.

Markets are “looking to see how robust growth really was in the first quarter given the really strong growth data we’ve seen and resilient, or re-accelerating, inflation prints as well,” said Angelo Manolatos, macro strategist at Wells Fargo in New York.

Meanwhile “next week is the big week,” for markets, Manolatos added. Events include the Treasury Department’s refunding announcement for the coming quarter, the Fed’s April 30-May 1 meeting and the April employment report.

Traders are watching economic indicators for more insight into when inflation will recede closer to the US central bank’s 2% annual target. Many economists have also anticipated a slowing economy, though recent economic data has been unexpectedly strong.

Fed policymakers, including Chair Jerome Powell, last week backed away from providing any guidance on when interest rates may be cut, saying instead that monetary policy needs to be restrictive for longer.

The Treasury saw good demand for a record USD 70 billion auction of five-year notes on Wednesday. The debt sold at a high yield of 4.659%, around half a basis point above where it had traded before the sale. Demand was 2.39 times the amount of notes on offer, slightly below the bid-to-cover ratio of 2.41 times for the last two auctions.

The government drew strong demand for a USD 69 billion auction of two-year notes on Tuesday and will also sell USD 44 billion in seven-year notes on Thursday.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury note yields rose five basis points to 4.646%, holding below the 4.696% level reached on April 16 which if broken would mark the highest since early November. Two-year yields gained three basis points to 4.933%. They reached 5.012% on April 11, the highest since mid-November.

The inversion in the yield curve between two- and 10-year notes narrowed two basis points to minus 29 basis points.

Fed funds futures traders are pricing in 43 basis points of easing this year and see the first cut as most likely in September. They had previously priced in three 25-basis-point rate cuts this year, beginning in June.

(Reporting By Karen Brettell; Editing by Kirsten Donovan and Marguerita Choy)