US yields rise as inflation data, Fed meeting eyed

NEW YORK – US Treasury yields were mostly higher on Monday as investors awaited key inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement later in the week, following a stronger-than-expected jobs report on Friday.

Yields jumped on Friday following the payrolls report from the Labor Department, reversing declines earlier in the week after other data indicated the labor market could be cooling.

On Wednesday morning consumer price index (CPI) data will be released. Signs that inflation may be easing could alter market expectations for the Fed’s path of interest rates.

The central bank is scheduled to release its policy statement on Wednesday afternoon at the close of its two-day meeting and will also give its economic projections.

“Within an environment where investors really don’t know which way this is heading, people are really getting anxious for the Fed meeting,” said Jim Barnes, director of fixed income at Bryn Mawr Trust in Berwyn, Pennsylvania.

“It seems that everybody is itching for a rate cut, but it’s not justified as of yet. And so they’re clinging on Wednesday morning, CPI data, hoping that’ll give us more direction and additional commentary from the Fed later on that afternoon, trying to get some clarity.”

The yield on the benchmark US 10-year Treasury note on Monday rose 4.3 basis points to 4.471%.

The yield on the 30-year bond US30YT=RR gained 4.9 basis points to 4.597%.

The Fed is widely expected to keep rates steady at this week’s meeting, while the probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points at the September meeting is roughly 50%, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool, down from nearly 60% a week ago, as the strong jobs report raised some uncertainty about the timing of a rate cut.

Ahead of the Fed meeting, bond investors, worried about persistently sticky inflation, have reduced their exposure to longer-dated US Treasuries.

An auction of USD 58 billion in three-year notes on Monday was described as weak by analysts, with a below-average demand of 2.43 times the notes on sale and a high yield of 4.659%.

The US Treasury Department will also sell USD 39 billion in 10-year notes on Tuesday and USD 22 billion in 30-year bonds on Thursday.

A closely watched part of the US Treasury yield curve measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury notes, seen as an indicator of economic expectations, was at a negative 41.88 basis points.

The two-year US Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, edged 1.7 basis points higher to 4.887%.

The breakeven rate on five-year US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) was last at 2.304% after closing at 2.291% on June 7.

The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate was last at 2.314%, indicating the market sees inflation averaging about 2.3% a year for the next decade.

(Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak; Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise and Leslie Adler)