US bonds extend rally in holiday shortened session

NEW YORK – US Treasury yields dropped amid thin trading during the holiday-shortened market session on Friday, extending a weekly bond rally spurred by optimism about the new US Treasury secretary and some respite from inflation concerns.

Benchmark 10-year yields dipped to an over one-month low, while two- and thirty-year yields hit their lowest in over three weeks, partly because of holiday-week effects after Thanksgiving on Thursday as well as month-end investor flows.

“Month-end positioning is likely to be playing a role, particularly going into the long US Thanksgiving weekend, which is likely to have led to some increased demand for Treasuries,” said David Page, head of macroeconomic research at AXA Investment Managers.

The move lower in yields, which decline when prices rise, indicated further unwinding of the trades linked to Donald Trump’s win in the US presidential election, which had put downward pressure on bonds in previous weeks because of expectations for higher deficits and inflation during a second Trump presidency.

This week’s rally began after Trump named Scott Bessent as Treasury secretary last Friday and gained momentum after a string of well-received Treasury auctions as well as inflation data in line with estimates.

“The nomination of Bessent as US Treasury secretary … has eased fiscal concerns,” said Diana Iovanel, senior markets economist at Capital Economics.

For Michael Ashley Schulman, partner and chief investment officer at Running Point Capital Advisors, Trump’s selection of Bessent suggested “economic rationality, potentially tempering fears of inflationary policies, possibly with a measured implementation of tariffs.”

Benchmark 10-year yields were last seen at 4.176%, their lowest since Oct. 25. Two-year yields, which more closely reflect monetary policy expectations, stood at 4.163%, their lowest since Nov. 5.

“It’s been a one-way slide lower in yield since the Asia reopen, though light flows have magnified the moves to a degree,” analysts at Citi wrote in a note early on Friday.

Since the beginning of November, 10-year yields have declined by about 10 basis points while two-year yields were roughly unchanged by the end of the month. Further out, 30-year yields have declined by about 11 basis points since the beginning of November to 4.366% on Friday.

The closely watched curve comparing two- and 10-year yields was last at 1.7 basis points, flatter than on Thursday – meaning the premium of long-term yields over shorter-ones was smaller.

That part of the curve inverted earlier this week for the first time in over a month, with two-year yields briefly higher than the 10-year. A curve inversion is a bond market signal of a possible economic contraction in the future.

US stock and bond markets were open for a half-day on Friday. The sustainability of this week’s decline in yields might become clearer once the new month starts next week.

For Page at AXA Investment Managers the weeks ahead will continue to be volatile as speculation mounts over the next US administration’s policies.

“Bonds look expensive to us at these yields,” he said.

(Reporting by Davide Barbuscia; editing by Jonathan Oatis and Diane Craft)