Gold steady as focus shifts to US private payroll data

Gold prices held steady on Monday, hovering around USD 4,000 per ounce, as investors hunkered down for US private payroll data due this week to assess the chances of an additional US Federal Reserve interest rate cut this year.

Spot gold was little changed at USD 4,002.35 an ounce by 1:32 p.m. ET (1832 GMT). US gold futures for December delivery settled 0.4% higher at USD 4,014.

“Gold is in the process of carving out a trading range, maybe in the high 3000s to the mid-4000s… this is a kind of expected consolidation after such a big move,” said Marex analyst Edward Meir.

The metal, which has gained 53% this year, has dropped over 8% from a record high hit on October 20.

Investors are awaiting the release of ADP US employment data due on Wednesday and ISM PMIs this week, for cues on the Fed’s policy direction. The US government shutdown has halted the release of key economic data, including from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The central bank last week cut interest rates for the second time this year, but Chair Jerome Powell said another cut this year was “not a foregone conclusion”.

Traders are now pricing a 65.3% chance of a rate cut in December, down from a near certainty last week before the Fed meeting.

Non-yielding gold thrives when interest rates are low and in times of economic uncertainty.

“Gold’s pause still looks like a breather, not a breakdown. Seasonal softness, temporary Chinese policy noise, and a firmer dollar explain the short-term retreat, but none change the longer-term narrative,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, in a note.

Meanwhile, China ended a long-standing tax exemption policy for some gold retailers on Saturday, potentially setting back a buying spree for the precious metal in the world’s biggest consumer market.

Elsewhere, spot silver fell 0.8% to USD 48.25 an ounce, platinum eased 0.2% at USD 1,564.30 and palladium gained 0.4% to USD 1,439.86.

(Reporting by Noel John and Pablo Sinha in Bengaluru; additional reporting by Kavya Balaraman; Editing by Leroy Leo and Vijay Kishore)