Gold firms on boosted rate cut bets as traders brace for inflation data

March 11 – Gold edged up on Monday, trading near its highest-ever level after a record rally last week, as traders hunkered down for US inflation data that could provide more clarity on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate trajectory.

Spot gold was up 0.2% at USD 2,181.47 per ounce at 3:38 p.m. ET (1937 GMT), after hitting a record high on Friday at USD 2,194.99 following US labor market data that boosted rate cut bets.

US gold futures settled 0.1% higher at USD 2,188.6.

The US consumer price inflation (CPI) data for February is due on Tuesday.

If the data “comes in hot, above last month’s report, then that’s going to probably be a little troublesome to the gold market (and) might cause some near-term selling pressure”, said Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals, adding it is very likely gold will see new highs in the near term.

Traders are pricing in an around 70% chance of an interest rate cut by June, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Low interest rates help gold prices as they reduce the opportunity cost of holding zero-yield bullion.

Central bank buying has also been supportive of gold.

Reflecting bullish sentiment, COMEX gold speculators raised their net long positions by 63,018 contracts to 131,060 in the week ended March 5, data on Friday showed.

“With large speculators having increased net-long exposure at their fastest weekly pace in 3.5 years last Tuesday, gold is clearly in demand and not a market to short for any length of time whilst traders expect Fed cuts,” City Index senior analyst Matt Simpson said.

Spot silver rose 0.6% to USD 24.45, while platinum gained 2.5% to USD 935.02 per ounce and palladium added 0.8% to USD 1,027.55.

(Reporting by Anjana Anil and Harshit Verma in Bengaluru, editing by Ed Osmond and Krishna Chandra Eluri)