Tech resilience vs sticky bond yields

March 13 – A tech-fueled whoosh pushed Wall Street higher on Tuesday, which should give Asian markets a good foundation to build on at the open on Wednesday, but spiking US bond yields on the back of hotter-than-expected US inflation data could limit the upside.

There’s nothing on the local economic and policy calendar likely to move the Asian market dial much on Wednesday, with only New Zealand food prices, Indian trade, and Indonesia consumer confidence data scheduled for release.

Investor sentiment across Asia seems to be holding up well. The MSCI Asia ex-Japan index rose nearly 1% to a seven-month high on Tuesday, Chinese stocks hit their highest in nearly four months, and the correction in Japan has fizzled out for now.

All that was before the rebound on Wall Street – the S&P 500 rose to a new record close and the Nasdaq gained 1.5%, boosted by a 7% bounce in market darling Nvidia and 12% surge in Oracle.

This was despite a solid rise in US bond yields – the 10-year yield chalked up its biggest increase in three weeks – after consumer inflation figures for February came in slightly hotter than expected.

US equities have not risen often on days when Treasuries have sold off, so it may be premature to read too much into it. But the bullish view would be that it highlights the confidence underpinning the market, the resilience of tech and AI, and the potential upside still to run.

The question for Asian markets is whether these tailwinds offset the headwinds of higher bond yields and a stronger dollar.

Improving domestic sentiment helped lift Chinese markets on Tuesday after the country’s No.2 property developer China Vanke said the impact of a Moody’s ratings downgrade on its financing activities was “controllable”.

Successfully tackling the property sector crisis is key to reviving wider economic growth, fighting off deflation, and reversing the torrent of capital outflows. It’s a tall order but the 13% rebound in Chinese stocks in the past month points to some degree of optimism.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, meanwhile, cooled some of the bubbling optimism on Japan’s economy on Tuesday, telling lawmakers that the economy was recovering but also showing some signs of weakness.

The slightly bleaker remarks come ahead of the BOJ’s policy meeting next week where the board will debate whether the outlook is bright enough to phase out its massive monetary stimulus.

Ueda’s remarks helped push the two-year Japanese yield back from its 13-year high, while the yen had its biggest fall in a month.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Wednesday:

– New Zealand food prices (February)

– India trade (February)

– Indonesia consumer confidence (February)

(By Jamie McGeever)