Spiking yields puncture risk appetite, Japan warns on yen

Investors go into Wednesday’s market trading in Asia with their appetite for risk smothered by the rise in global bond yields.

As ever, US Treasury yields are front and center for markets that are more exposed than most to dollar-denominated debt and US borrowing costs. Especially on medium- to longer-dated maturities.

The 10-year US yield is its highest in eight months, the ‘2s/10s’ curve is the steepest in nearly three years, and the 30-year yield is within 10 basis points of 5.00%. It has climbed 60 bps in a month.

Longer-dated yields are rising globally even though many central banks are lowering policy rates – Britain’s 30-year gilt yield is the highest since 1998. The US Treasury’s sale on Wednesday of USD 22 billion of 30-year bonds could have a major impact on world markets.

There are times when signs of US economic resilience lift the global outlook and risk appetite picks up, but the release of surprisingly strong US job opening figures on Tuesday was not one of them. It was a case of ‘good news is bad news’, US yields and the dollar rose, and stocks tumbled.

That’s the global backdrop for Wednesday’s trading, which is likely to set the tone in Asia given how light the local economic calendar is.

There is little sign that Japan’s yen or China’s yuan is emerging from their recent funk, and currency traders in Asia will be on heightened alert for intervention from Japan after the dollar on Tuesday rose as high as 158.40 yen.

That’s the highest since July last year and close to the psychologically significant 160.00 yen level, and comes after Japanese finance minister Katsunobu Kato on Tuesday warned against what he said is speculative, one-sided yen selling.

Traders will note that a break of the 160 per dollar level prompted yen-buying intervention from Japanese authorities last year.

The weak yen helped the Nikkei rise 2% back above 40,000 points on Tuesday but futures are pointing to a fall of as much as 1% at the open on Wednesday.

The news flow around China, meanwhile, is still on the bleak side, offering investors little incentive to start buying beaten down Chinese assets.

US President-elect Donald Trump on Tuesday doubled down on his commitment to slap hefty tariffs on goods imported from major trading partners, and figures on Tuesday showed China’s FX reserves fell by USD 64 billion in December. That was the biggest monthly fall since April 2022, and one of the steepest since the yuan slide and waves of capital flight in 2015-16

Chinese stocks are down 5% so far this year, significantly underperforming their regional and global peers. The yuan is its weakest against the dollar since September 2023, and Chinese bond yields are collapsing.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Wednesday:

– Australia inflation (November)

– South Korea current account (November)

– Japan consumer confidence (December)

(Reporting by Jamie McGeever)