Risk asset resilience, Indonesia’s rate call

April 24 – Investors continue to breathe life back into risky assets, paving the way for a positive market open in Asia on Wednesday as attention in the region turns to the latest interest rate decision and guidance from Indonesia.

Trade figures from Thailand and New Zealand, service sector producer inflation data from Japan, and consumer price inflation from Australia are the other main highlights from a packed calendar on Wednesday.

Yen-buying intervention from Japanese authorities still hasn’t materialized, and with the Bank of Japan opening its two-day policy meeting on Thursday, it may be that Tokyo stays out of the currency market at least until next week.

That is by no means certain, and the closer the dollar gets to 155.00 yen, the more vigilant traders will be.

China’s yuan, meanwhile, continues to weaken too. It slid to a new five-month low against the dollar in spot trading on Tuesday and the central bank set its official guidance rate at a seven-week low also.

Indonesia’s central bank is expected to leave its seven-day repo rate on hold at 6.00%, with an outside chance of a quarter-point hike, according to a Reuters poll. The bank’s first rate cut has been pushed out to the third quarter and the rupiah’s slide has also reduced the amount of easing expected this year.

The general tone across Asian markets on Wednesday should be positive, at least initially, after the S&P 500 and MSCI World index on Tuesday put in their best performances in two months, Britain’s FTSE 100 hit a record high, and the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index registered its biggest rise in a month.

Strong demand for a USD 69 billion sale of two-year US Treasuries on Tuesday, lower bond yields across the curve, and a weaker dollar all helped fuel the positive sentiment, a confluence of events that loosens financial conditions.

The US earnings season delivered encouraging news as well, with Spotify and General Motors among those reporting strong results. Tesla’s revenue fell and earnings fell short of forecasts, but shares jumped in after-hours trade after the firm said it had pulled forward the launch of new models.

Could it be that the recent equity market wobble that saw major indices pull back 5% and some of the world’s biggest single stocks like Nvidia tumble 10%, is now over? Perhaps, although there are good reasons to be cautious.

Meanwhile, Sino-US tensions may be bubbling up again ahead of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to China later this week. According to a US official, the US has preliminarily discussed sanctions on some Chinese banks as a way to curb Beijing’s support for Russia.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Wednesday:

– Indonesia interest rate decision

– Australia consumer inflation (March, Q1)

– Japan services producer price inflation (March)

(Reporting and Writing by Jamie McGeever; Editing by Bill Berkrot)