RBA poised, China tech booms, Japan GDP sizzles

There’s no shortage of market-moving news in Asia on Tuesday, with an Australian interest rate decision, China’s tech boom and sizzling Japanese GDP figures front and center for investors, against a backdrop of unfolding geopolitical drama around US-Europe relations and the Russia-Ukraine war.

On the economic front, the main event locally will be the Reserve Bank of Australia’s expected quarter-point cut to its cash rate to 4.10%, its first reduction in over four years.

Easing inflation has opened the door for a rate-cutting cycle, but only a shallow one – money markets are pricing in only 50 basis points of additional easing this year after Tuesday’s move.

If the RBA does lower rates on Tuesday, it will be one of the last G10 central banks to do so. Norway’s central bank hasn’t started easing yet, while the Bank of Japan is raising rates.

That cycle could accelerate, after figures on Monday showed Japan’s economy grew at an annualized 2.8% pace in the October-December quarter, nearly three times faster than the consensus 1.0% in a Reuters poll. The highest forecast in the survey of 17 economists was 2.2%.

The yen and Japanese Government Bond yields are on the rise. Recent inflation and wage growth data have also surprised to the upside, but the Bank of Japan will be cautious about raising rates after decades of deflation and ultra-loose policy.

Two-year and 10-year JGB yields are already the highest since 2008 and have risen sharply in recent months, roughly doubling since September. These are big moves, and the impact on businesses, households and investors remains to be seen.

The rebound in Chinese markets continues, meanwhile, with tech shares listed in Hong Kong hitting a three-year high on Monday as President Xi Jinping sat down with top tech leaders in Beijing. The Hang Seng tech index is up more than 30% in a month.

The symbolism of Xi’s rare meeting with tech leaders is powerful, reflecting policymakers’ worries over the economy and China’s technological development, and marks a sharp turnaround from the regulatory clampdown on tech four years ago.

Shares in Baidu plunged on Monday, however, wiping USD 2.4 billion off its market value after the search engine giant’s founder was not spotted at the meeting.

These market moves, in their own ways seismic in nature, come against truly seismic geopolitical developments around America’s ties with Europe and President Donald Trump’s role in brokering a truce between Ukraine and Russia with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

A peace deal – even a ‘dirty deal that clearly favors Russia’, in the words of Danske Bank – may boost risk appetite, and weigh on the dollar and oil in the short term. But the wider implications of a fracturing of 80 years of solid US-European relations since World War Two could raise risk premia across markets in the long term.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to Asian markets on Tuesday:

– Australian interest rate decision

– Singapore budget (fiscal year 2025)

– Hong Kong unemployment (January)

(By Jamie McGeever)