Optimism rises, but China inflation looms

Asia is set for a positive end to a turbulent week on Friday after a rip-roaring US equity rally on Thursday, although Chinese inflation could temper any optimism if the data shows that the world’s second-largest economy is still in the clutches of deflation.

Wall Street’s resilience was notable given that US bond yields rose again after yet another poorly received Treasury auction, this time 30-year notes. That’s two sales this week that have drawn weak demand, with investors only taking down the paper in return for higher yields.

But the Nasdaq clocked its best day in six months and the S&P 500 its best day since November 2022. Broader indices in Asia and tech in particular should grab the baton and run with it on Friday.

The MSCI Asia ex-Japan index is currently down 1.6% on the week, China’s blue chip CSI300 index down 1.2%, the Hang Seng tech index down 0.6% and Japan’s Nikkei down 3%. Can they muster a rally strong enough on Friday to close the week in the green?

It would represent a remarkable turnaround, especially in Japan where currency- and rates-related volatility earlier in the week triggered some of the biggest stock market moves on record.

The US tech shakeout that began on July 11 is losing steam. The broad S&P Information Technology index and ‘FANGS’ index of Big Tech shares both fell around 20% in the three weeks to Aug. 5 but have rebounded as much as 9% from these lows.

US tech got a boost on Thursday from Meta Platforms’ earnings, and tech stocks in Asia could take their cue next week from Taiwanese chipmaker TSMC’s sales figures on Saturday.

TSMC, the world’s largest contract chipmaker and a major supplier to Apple and Nvidia, on Saturday gives its latest monthly sales update. Sales have been falling in recent months – to TUSD 207.9 billion in June from TUSD 229.6 billion in May, which was down from TUSD 236 billion in April.

Indeed, Taiwan’s exports rose less than expected in July as weak demand from China offset record orders from the United States, which underscored the island’s essential role as a supply hub for the booming artificial intelligence (AI) industry.

Weak demand from China seems par for the course these days, and continues to keep inflation in check.

Figures on Friday are expected to show the annual rate of consumer inflation edged up in July to 0.3% from 0.2%, and the monthly rate climbed to 0.3% from -0.2%. The annual rate of producer deflation is expected to have accelerated slightly to -0.9% from -0.8%.

A positive surprise would be welcome – China’s economic data have been consistently undershooting expectations for months.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to Asian markets on Friday:

– China inflation (July)

– Indonesia retail sales (June)

– Malaysia industrial production (June)

(Reporting by Jamie McGeever)