Nvidia waiting game over, caution descends

Hold on to your hats, or prepare for lift-off?

In the end, the much-anticipated release of Nvidia’s second quarter results on Wednesday is unlikely to push investors to either extreme, but Asian markets on Thursday may still open on the defensive.

The AI golden goose and the world’s second-most valuable company reported second-quarter revenue of USD 30.04 billion, beating estimates of USD 28.70 billion, and forecast third-quarter revenue of USD 32.5 billion, compared with analysts’ average estimate of USD 31.77 billion.

But that doesn’t appear to have sufficiently impressed investors who have gotten used to Nvidia’s profits, revenue, and forecasts smashing forecasts, not just beating them.

Nvidia shares fell as much as 3.5% in volatile US after-hours trading, which should weigh on tech stocks and equities more broadly at the open in Asia.

Or perhaps when the dust settles a little, investors in Asia will look more favorably on what appears to be a pretty solid set of results?

The backdrop to the trading day in Asia on Thursday was already challenging – Wall Street had closed lower before Nvidia’s earnings on Wednesday, with the Nasdaq losing more than 1% and chip stocks down 1.8%, while the US dollar and bond yields climbed higher.

The dollar posted its biggest rise since early June, gaining more than 0.5% against a basket of major currencies and declining against emerging market currencies for a second day.

The Asia/Pacific calendar on Thursday is extremely light, with only Japanese consumer confidence and capex data from New Zealand likely to pique investors’ interest at all.

Investor sentiment towards China remains bleak and Shanghai stocks closed lower on Wednesday for a third day, sliding to their lowest level in six and a half months.

Swiss investment bank UBS on Wednesday cut its 2024 GDP growth forecast for China to 4.6% from 4.9%, citing a heavier-than-expected drag on overall economic activity from the property sector slump.

More alarmingly, perhaps, it also cut its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 4% from 4.6% and next year’s average inflation rate to 1.0% from 1.4%, indicating China’s economic malaise is likely to deepen rather than lift in the coming year.

Top Chinese and US officials, meanwhile, discussed holding fresh talks between Presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping in the near future, the two countries said on Wednesday during high-level meetings in Beijing.

The discussion occurred during lengthy talks between China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, and US national security adviser Jake Sullivan held against the backdrop of sharp disagreements between the superpowers, including trade and tit-for-tat tariffs.

Progress, or another false dawn?

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to Asian markets on Thursday:

– Japan consumer confidence

– New Zealand capex (Q2)

– Germany inflation (August)

(Reporting by Jamie McGeever)