New quarter, same old China PMIs

July 1 – A look at the day ahead in Asian markets.

Asian market trading on Monday kicks off the new week, quarter and second half of the year with investors’ focus locked on a data-heavy economic calendar, especially the latest snapshot of Chinese factory activity.

The Caixin manufacturing purchasing managers index report for June will go a long way to showing whether the recovery in the world’s second largest economy is gathering momentum, struggling, or going into reverse.

China bulls will be hoping it’s the former. Some indicators in the first half of the year pointed in that direction, but the overall picture was pretty bleak – growth is patchy, deflation risks persist, stocks and the exchange rate are under heavy pressure, and more stimulus is needed.

A Reuters poll of economists expect the ‘unofficial’ manufacturing PMI index to fall back to 51.2 from 51.7 in May. That would show continued expansion in activity – anything above 50.0 indicates growth – but at a slower pace.

The ‘official’ manufacturing PMI from China’s National Bureau of Statistics on Sunday came in at 49.5, unchanged from May and marking the second month in a row that manufacturing activity has declined.

The wider picture is perhaps even bleaker – the services PMI sank to 50.2, a five-month low, and the construction PMI slipped to 52.3, the weakest reading since July last year. Both indicate growth, but it is clearly slowing.

Manufacturing PMIs from several other countries across Asia will be released on Monday, including Japan, India, South Korea and Australia.

If there are financial market ripples from the first round of voting in the French election, they may be felt first in Asia on Monday. The far-right eurosceptic National Rally party won the first round, exit polls showed, but the final result will depend on days of horsetrading before next week’s run-off.

The broader macro and market backdrop to the start of the week is reasonably strong. World stocks hit a record high last week and ended the quarter up 2.4%, the sixth quarterly rise from the last seven. Asian stocks jumped 5.5% in Q2.

Inflation figures from the U.S. on Friday were in line with fairly benign expectations, enough to keep the ‘soft landing’ narrative on track and maintain the prospect of two quarter-point rate cuts from the Fed this year.

Could the first of these come before the November presidential election?

But there are signs that the bullish momentum is losing steam, especially in Big Tech, and across markets pockets of uncertainty and volatility are appearing. In currencies, this is playing out most obviously in the Japanese yen, which slumped to a 38-year low against the dollar last week.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Monday:

– Manufacturing PMIs from across Asia, including China (June)

– Indonesia inflation (June)

– Australia retail sales (May)

Reporting by Jamie McGeever; Editing by Editing by Diane Craft