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THE GIST
NEWS AND FEATURES
Global Philippines Fine Living
INSIGHTS
INVESTMENT STRATEGY
Economy Stocks Bonds Currencies
THE BASICS
Investment Tips Explainers Retirement
WEBINARS
2024 Mid-Year Economi Briefing, economic growth in the Philippines
2024 Mid-Year Economic Briefing: Navigating the Easing Cycle
June 21, 2024
Investing with Love
Investing with Love: A Mother’s Guide to Putting Money to Work
May 15, 2024
retirement-ss-3
Investor Series: An Introduction to Estate Planning
September 1, 2023
View All Webinars
DOWNLOADS
948 x 535 px AdobeStock_433552847
Economic Updates
Monthly Economic Update: Fed cuts incoming   
June 30, 2025 DOWNLOAD
equities-3may23-2
Consensus Pricing
Consensus Pricing – June 2025
June 25, 2025 DOWNLOAD
Two people discussing a chart on a tablet
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Policy Rate Update: Dovish BSP Narrows IRD 
June 19, 2025 DOWNLOAD
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Economy 3 MIN READ

Nervous eyes on China trade

June 6, 2023By Reuters
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June 7 (Reuters) – Chinese trade figures for May top the Asia-Pacific economic data and events calendar on Wednesday with investors keen to see whether April’s shock slump in imports is repeated, which will offer clues on the health – or otherwise – of domestic demand.

Markets may get a tailwind from Tuesday’s global session – Wall Street ended higher and volatility fell to a pre-pandemic low, although the crypto world was rocked after the US Securities and Exchange Commission filed a second major lawsuit in as many days against industry giants.

First-quarter GDP growth figures from Australia are also due on Wednesday, potentially giving the Aussie dollar and other local assets a nudge after the surprise interest rate hike from the country’s central bank on Tuesday.

Analysts polled by Reuters reckon the economy grew by 0.3% from the previous quarter, and by 2.4% compared with the same period a year ago. Both would mark a slower pace of growth from the fourth quarter of last year.

The Australian dollar could be in for a bout of profit-taking on Wednesday after rallying strongly on Tuesday, a fourth straight rise, following the RBA’s rate hike and signaling more to come.

That’s the Aussie’s longest winning streak in a month, and the currency is up almost 1% this week. It has not appreciated two weeks in a row since January.

Chinese trade data for May will be the main focus, especially imports, which have been sluggish for over a year. The scrapping of pandemic-era restrictions and lockdowns earlier this year was supposed to spur a surge in domestic demand, but that hasn’t happened.

The surprise 7.9% slump in imports in April was a major red flag that the economic re-opening was not going according to plan. It was one of the main catalysts for investors turning bearish on Chinese assets and the economy in recent weeks.

Economists polled by Reuters predict an 8.0% fall in imports for May and a 0.4% decline in exports.

The Chinese yuan slid to a new low for the year through 7.10 per dollar on Tuesday. Further signs of a struggling economy will likely keep the yuan on the defensive, even if the overall trade surplus is relatively large.

Overall, markets go into Wednesday in pretty fine fettle. The CBOE volatility index – the so-called Wall Street fear index – closed below 14.0 for the first time since February 2020.

Here are three key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Wednesday:

– China trade balance (May)

– Australia GDP (Q1)

– FX reserves – China, Japan, Indonesia

(By Jamie McGeever)

 

This article originally appeared on reuters.com

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