Markets shake off volatility, but will it last?

Markets have bounced back nicely from the recent volatility, and it’s becoming clearer each day that the recent turbulence was likely due to the unwinding of large leveraged positions, like yen-funded carry trades, rather than deeper concerns about global growth.

Now, everyone’s eyeing Wednesday’s US inflation report, which could test the market’s new calm.

The July CPI numbers might not show much improvement from the previous month, but as long as there isn’t a big surprise, investors might still hope for the Fed to start easing in September.

Futures markets currently show a 54% chance of a 50 basis point cut by the Fed, with a 46% chance of a 25 basis point cut, and traders are pricing in a full percentage point of easing by year-end.

Keeping these expectations intact might be key to not scaring away investors’ risk appetite just as Japanese shares have rebounded after last week’s violent selloff. Japan’s Nikkei rose more than 3% following a holiday on Monday.

Ahead of the CPI report, the mood on Wall Street was upbeat, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both continuing to rebound from recent dips. US Treasury yields slipped as data revealed that US producer prices rose less than expected in July, which supports the case for the Fed to cut rates in the coming months.

Meanwhile, Brent and US crude oil futures dipped on Tuesday as the market perceived a reduced risk of a broader conflict in the Middle East.

Investors will also keeping an eye on New Zealand’s central bank, which might cut interest rates on Wednesday, a full year ahead of its previous guidance. Slowing inflation, rising unemployment, and sluggish economic growth have led investors to bet on this easing move.

India’s wholesale price data will also be in the spotlight, as investors are eager to see if inflation slowed in July after climbing in recent months. Notably, India’s retail inflation dropped in July to its lowest level in nearly five years, according to government data released on Monday.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Wednesday:

– Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting

– India Wholesale Price Index (July)

– US Consumer Price Index (July)

(Reporting by Saqib Iqbal Ahmed; Editing by Josie Kao)