Growth fears, tech slump bring on September blues

World markets will open on an extremely shaky footing on Wednesday after a gloomy snapshot of US factory activity on Tuesday reignited fears about the US economy’s “soft landing” and slammed stocks, oil prices and bond yields sharply lower.

It was the first trading day of September for US markets after the Labor Day holiday weekend, and for those who put greater store in “seasonal” factors, it is an ominous start to what is traditionally a weak month for stocks and risk appetite.

Many market moves on Tuesday were the largest since the historic volatility burst on Aug. 5 – Wall Street, world stocks and Treasury yields had their biggest declines and US equity volatility had its biggest rise since that day.

Others were even more eye-opening and ominous.

Oil slumped 5%, its biggest fall this year and a reflection of investors’ worries over US and Chinese growth. If demand and economic activity are wavering in the world’s top two economies, Houston, we have a problem.

On top of that, Nvidia shares tanked 10%, wiping around USD 265 billion off the company’s value in one of the biggest one-day market cap losses on record. If Nvidia has been responsible for much of the tech- and AI-fueled equity rally over the past 18 months, selloffs of this magnitude are a worry.

Weak purchasing managers index data from China and the United States are setting the negative tone, and there are more Asia and Pacific PMI reports scheduled for release on Wednesday, including China’s ‘unofficial’ Caixin service sector PMI.

China’s ‘official’ PMI figures from Beijing over the weekend showed that manufacturing activity sank to a six-month low in August as factory gate prices tumbled and owners struggled for orders. Shanghai stocks open on Wednesday at a seven-month low.

Australian GDP figures are also on tap on Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters predict growth in the second quarter accelerated to 0.3% from 0.1% at a quarter-on-quarter pace, but year-on-year growth held broadly steady at 1.0%.

After the broad-based and aggressive selloff in US stocks on Tuesday, Asian markets will almost certainly open in the red on Wednesday – the old adage still stands: when the US catches a cold, the rest of the world sneezes.

Institute for Supply Management figures show that US manufacturing activity has contracted every single month since October 2022, with the exception of March this year. That’s nearly two years of uninterrupted manufacturing recession.

This has been offset by expansion in services activity, but rates traders are now attaching a near 40% chance of the Fed beginning its easing cycle later this month with a 50 basis point cut.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to Asian markets on Wednesday:

– China ‘unofficial’ Caixin services PMI (August)

– Australia GDP (Q2)

– South African President Ramaphosa’s State Visit to China

(Reporting by Jamie McGeever)