Global inflation relief lifts bond yield gloom

At last, some breathing room for investors after US and UK inflation figures on Wednesday eased the vice-like grip that the soaring dollar and global bond yields had increasingly been exerting over markets.

It is too early to say this marks a turning point, but fixed income and emerging markets have been beaten down so much lately that they were primed for a ‘good news’ reversal. Upbeat US bank earnings and, on the margins, the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas will also help support market sentiment on Thursday.

But it’s the UK and especially the US inflation news that will drive markets more, and the rapid slide in bond yields and jump in stocks should pave the way for a positive day in Asia on Thursday.

These numbers may not ultimately alter the Fed’s direction or even pace of rate cuts this year. But they do take the heat off policymakers and buy them more time to assess their next steps.

For investors, they were instant triggers to reverse some of the bond selling that had snowballed in recent weeks and which had started to bleed into equity markets. Yields across the US Treasury curve posted their biggest one-day declines since Nov. 25, and rates traders brought forward the next expected Fed rate cut to June from September.

Curiously, however, the impact on the dollar was muted. It fell sharply against the yen, but barely budged against the euro. Perhaps country-specific factors are playing a greater role in setting exchange rates right now rather than solely US yields and rate expectations.

That may be the case in Asia, where policy and politics are spicing up local markets. Indonesia’s rupiah sank to its lowest in more than six months and the country’s stocks leaped on Wednesday after the central bank delivered a surprise rate cut.

Not one of the 30 analysts polled by Reuters expected the move.

The Bank of Korea delivers its latest decision on Thursday, and it could not be at a more volatile time for the country, after impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol was arrested on Wednesday and questioned for hours by investigators in relation to a criminal insurrection probe.

The BoK is expected to cut its base rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%, according to 27 out of 34 economists polled by Reuters, with the remaining seven forecasting no change.

Given the tense domestic political situation and in light of the cooler-than-expected US inflation data, could the BoK surprise markets with a 50 bps cut to try and boost growth and loosen financial conditions?

Bank Indonesia’s shock move shows that even unanimous consensus forecasts are not always the one-way bet they might seem.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Thursday:

– South Korea interest rate decision

– South Korea fallout from President Yoon’s arrest

– Australia unemployment (December)

(Reporting by Jamie McGeever; Editing by Bill Berkrot)