Fleeting respite from yields, dollar; Indonesia sets rates

A pause in the global bond selloff took some wind out of the dollar’s sails and allowed equities to regain their footing early on Tuesday but Wall Street’s wobble ahead of US inflation data could put Asian markets back on the defensive on Wednesday.

The dollar and Treasury yields losing steam should offer emerging and Asian markets some welcome respite. But the reversal in US stocks could ensure it is short-lived, especially with US CPI inflation numbers landing after Asia has closed.

Asian markets were buoyant on Tuesday. The MSCI Asia ex-Japan index rebounded from a five-month low and blue chip Chinese stocks leaped more than 2.5%, as regulators pledged more support for markets and local chip firms rallied after the US stepped up its tech curbs.

Japanese stocks went the other way, however, after Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino flagged the chance of a rate hike next week. The Nikkei 225 index chalked up its biggest fall in two and a half months, slumping 1.8%.

That’s the regional local backdrop to the open on Wednesday, where the main local event will be Bank Indonesia’s policy decision. Spooked by recent currency volatility, BI is widely expected to keep its main interest rate on hold at 6.00%.

With inflation at the lower end of the central bank’s target range of 1.5%-3.5%, monetary policy is being directed towards stabilizing the rupiah, which is down around 7% against the dollar from its September peak.

Like most emerging countries, Indonesia has been hit hard by spiking US bond yields and the dollar “wrecking ball”, a tightening of financial conditions that is restricting BI’s ability to ease policy.

According to Goldman Sachs, Indonesia’s financial conditions have deteriorated sharply since late September, mainly due to the rise in long rates and decline in equities. They are now the tightest since October 2023, and close to the tightest since October 2022.

The threat of a global trade war and punitive US tariffs on many countries – especially China – continues to weigh on market sentiment as US president-elect Donald Trump’s Jan. 20 inauguration draws closer.

Meeting with European Council President Antonio Costa on Tuesday, Chinese President Xi Jinping said China and the European Union have a robust “symbiotic” economic relationship and Beijing hopes the bloc can become “a trustworthy partner for cooperation”.

Meanwhile, Trump said on Tuesday he will create a new department called the External Revenue Service “to collect tariffs, duties, and all revenue” from foreign sources.

South Korea’s won is one of the best-performing Asian currencies this year, but could fall on Wednesday after Yonhap reported that authorities investigating impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol were at his official residence to execute an arrest warrant.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Wednesday:

– Indonesia interest rate decision

– South Korea unemployment (December)

– Japan services tankan survey (January)

(Reporting by Jamie McGeever)