China deepens stimulus drive, global signals mixed

Asian markets are set to end the week on the defensive, pressured by rising US bond yields and a firmer dollar, with investors ready to reduce risk exposure as they ponder the cross-currents sweeping through the emerging world.

China’s latest pledges – to widen the budget deficit, issue more debt and loosen monetary policy – have generally been welcomed, but Brazil’s surprisingly aggressive interest rate hike and promise of more to come has had a more mixed impact.

Chinese and Hong Kong stocks bounced strongly on Thursday, and barring a fall of 1.4% or more on Friday, blue chip Chinese stocks will register their third weekly rise in a row, a winning streak not seen since May.

The yuan fell on the stimulus news, as expected, but not by much. Indeed, going into Friday’s session, the onshore yuan is set to break a remarkable run of 10 consecutive weekly declines.

Even less surprising, perhaps, was another leg lower in Chinese bond yields. The 10-year yield is at record lows and is on course for its biggest weekly fall since 2020.

Wall Street understandably took a breather on Thursday after the previous day’s somewhat surprising surge. The S&P 500 fell 0.5% and is poised for a modest fall on the week, and the Nasdaq backed off Wednesday’s record high above 20,000.

It’s still on course for its fourth consecutive weekly rise though, and remarkably, it has declined in only two weeks out of the last 14. The AI-driven bull run in US tech shows every sign of powering on into the year end with Hong Kong’s benchmark tech index is up 3% for the week.

The wider policy and market sentiment thermometer is also sending mixed signals. The Swiss National Bank delivered a jumbo rate cut on Thursday, bringing the zero bound into view and floating the possibility of negative rates, if they are needed.

The European Central Bank cut rates by a more modest 25 basis points, as expected, but was more cautious in its guidance. And hot US producer price inflation pushed up Treasury yields, while punchy jobless claims data stoked concern about the labor market.

All in all, a very mixed bag, and investors may well be relieved that the weekend is near.

Asia’s economic calendar on Friday is light. The two main indicators are India’s wholesale inflation for November, which is expected to ease a bit to 2.2% on an annual basis from 2.36% in October, and Japan’s fourth quarter Tankan survey of business sentiment.

The Australian dollar and Philippine peso could move on scheduled speeches from RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter and Philippine central bank governor Eli Remolona, respectively.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Friday:

– Japan Tankan survey (Q4)

– India wholesale inflation (November)

– New Zealand manufacturing PMI (November)

(Reporting by Jamie McGeever; Editing by Bill Berkrot)