Big tech in focus, Harris neutralizes Trump’s lead in poll

NEW YORK – Markets were subdued ahead of second-quarter earnings from Alphabet and Tesla released after the close of regular trade on Tuesday. The first of the market-leading mega caps to report left a mixed picture for after-hours trade with scope to spill across time zones on Wednesday.

Shares of both companies fell despite reporting higher-than-expected revenue.

Other than earnings there is not much on the radar, economic indicator-wise, until Thursday’s advance US second quarter GDP and Friday’s June Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, which markets are betting will smooth the way for a Fed easing in September.

That leaves politics. With the new US election landscape, markets are preparing for greater volatility, although there was little sign of it Tuesday. Vice President Kamala Harris has all but sewed up the nomination as the Democratic presidential candidate to face Republican Donald Trump on Nov. 5, after President Joe Biden withdrew from the race on Sunday.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and House of Representatives Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries supported Harris’s bid in the election and a majority of party delegates have committed to her.

In a Reuters/Ipsos national poll conducted Monday and Tuesday, Harris led Trump 44% to 42%, a difference within the 3-percentage-point margin of error. Harris and Trump were tied at 44% in a July 15-16 poll, and Trump led by one percentage point in a July 1-2 poll, both within the same margin of error.

While the CBOE’s VIX Volatility Index fell back to near 14.5 on Tuesday it was at a near two-month high above 17 two days ago amid caution ahead of the vote in what has already been one of the most dramatic election years in history.

Whoever gets elected is bound to take a tough line with China on trade and Taiwan. It’s not clear what will put a floor under Chinese stocks, which posted their biggest one-day slide in six months on Tuesday, after Beijing’s aggressive stimulus measures post Party Plenum failed to shore up confidence.

Meanwhile, Japan’s Nikkei is just off five straight down days in part due to the weak yen. The currency rose to 155.615 per dollar by late US trade after a senior ruling party official called for the BOJ to normalize monetary policy and keep interest rates steady.

Taiwan’s stock market shrugged off those losses and is Asia’s best performer this year, thanks in large part to TSMC, Asia’s most valuable listed company, which rose more than 4% Tuesday. But concerns remain over Washington’s likely curbs on semiconductor sales to China.

Four of the five remaining Magnificent 7 mega caps – Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple – report next week. Investors must wait until later in August for AI super-mega Nvidia’s numbers.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Wednesday:

– South Korea Consumer Sentiment (July)

– Flash PMI Australia (July)

– Flash PMI Japan (July)