Awaiting China data deluge, US yields drift lower

Relief from the positive US and UK inflation surprises this week appears to have evaporated, at least as far as equity markets are concerned, even as Treasury yields and the dollar continue to drift lower into the last trading day of the week.

Asian markets open on Friday against a mixed global backdrop. Yields are softening and Fed Governor Chris Waller on Thursday again signaled his willingness to cut rates, while US bank earnings are beating expectations.

But more evidence is needed that the global bond and inflation respite is anything other than temporary, and investors are nervy ahead of US President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration on Monday.

Investors in Asia, therefore, could be forgiven for playing safe, minimizing exposure to risky assets ahead of the weekend, especially as it is a three-day break in the US where markets are closed Monday for Martin Luther King Jr. Day.

But the monthly Chinese ‘data dump’ lands on Friday. Beijing releases the December readings of house prices, industrial production, fixed-asset investment, and retail sales, all of which will contribute to the big one: fourth-quarter and full-year GDP.

Citi’s China economic surprises index is currently in positive territory, lifted by the series of policy pledges and market-boosting measures announced since September. But that boost has faded, and the index is its lowest in two months.

Could Friday’s raft of indicators stop the drift? It’s possible that some, like export and new loans data released earlier this week, are on the strong side as businesses and households ramp up activity before tariff-threatening Trump takes office.

On the other hand, the wider trend suggests negative surprises are more likely, and it’s worth noting that December was characterized by strong capital outflows, sluggish stock markets, and the biggest fall in bond yields since December 2008.

Investors will also be keeping an eye on the TikTok saga for signs of how cool or otherwise US-Sino relations are ahead of Trump’s return to the White House.

The Chinese-owned video app, which is used by more than 170 million Americans monthly, is set to be banned on Sunday under a law mandating that it find a non-Chinese owner. But Trump’s incoming national security adviser said on Thursday the new administration will keep TikTok alive in the US if there is a viable deal, in a potential reprieve for the firm.

Currency volatility in Asia, meanwhile, is ticking higher after two central bank policy surprises this week from South Korea and Indonesia, and as the Japanese yen rallies strongly ahead of a possible Bank of Japan rate hike next week.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Friday:

– China ‘data dump’ (December)

– China GDP (Q4, full-year 2024)

– New Zealand manufacturing PMI (December)

(Reporting by Jamie McGeever; Editing by Diane Craft)