Asian stocks eye best run since 2021

Investors’ appetite for stocks and risk assets shows no sign of waning which, in the absence of any major market-moving economic data or events in Asia on Tuesday, should pave the way for further gains across the continent when trading gets underway.

Monday’s global market moves encapsulated the ‘FOMO’ that seems to be fueling the ongoing risk rally – volatility, the dollar, bond yields, and geopolitical uncertainty all rose to varying degrees, yet equities marched higher regardless.

‘Fear of missing out’ – which some might say isn’t all that far removed ‘irrational exuberance’ – is a powerful force. But it can also be a red flag, especially when long-time market bears join the frenzy.

Morgan Stanley’s US equity strategist Mike Wilson has not been the only Wall Street bear over the last couple of years, but he has certainly been one of the most prominent.

On Monday, he and his team raised their base-case, 12-month forecast for the S&P 500 to 5400 points. That’s only up around 2% from Friday’s close, but 20% higher than their previous forecast of 4500.

Only time will tell if Wilson’s about-turn will be an indication that investors’ exuberance has become irrational. Right now, however, at least until chipmaker Nvidia’s earnings on Wednesday, market bulls are firmly in control.

And Asia is enjoying the ride too.

The MSCI Asia ex-Japan equity index on Monday rose to a two-year high with its seventh consecutive rise, its best run since January last year. Another increase on Tuesday will seal its best run since August-September 2021.

Japan’s Nikkei is back above 39,000 points for the first time in over a month, and the dollar is back above 156.00 yen. The dollar is now within one yen, more or less, of where Japanese authorities are widely thought to have conducted yen-buying intervention on May 1.

Intervention seems unlikely right now, but currency traders will not be complacent. The latest Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show that speculators reduced their net short yen positions for a third week, but not by much.

The main event on the Asian and Pacific calendar on Tuesday is the release of the minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s May 7 policy meeting.

The RBA quashed market talk at the time of a near-term interest rate hike but also didn’t hold out much chance of a cut for months to come. The Aussie dollar has regained its poise since then to climb to a four-month high just above $0.67.

Australian rates markets are not fully pricing in a 25-basis point rate cut until April next year.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Tuesday:

– Reserve Bank of Australia meeting minutes

– Australia consumer sentiment (May)

– Indonesia’s government presents 2025 economic forecasts to parliament

(Reporting by Jamie McGeever)